Indo-Pacific Empire

Rory Medcalf is a Professor and Head of the National Security College at the Australian National University. His experience as an Australian diplomat includes postings to New Delhi, Tokyo and Papua New Guinea. He was a senior strategic analyst in Australia’s peak intelligence agency, the Office of National Assessments, reporting to the Prime Minister. He was the founding director of the international security program at the Lowy Institute. He has published and been quoted widely in academic journals and all major Australian newspapers as well as The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, The Economist, The South China Morning Post and The Hindu, as well as on the ABC, BBC and CNN.

• Preface1 Of Names, Maps and PowerPAST2 A Submerged History of Asia3 Odyssey of Nations: The Quest for a Regional Home4 Rise of the Indo-PacificPRESENT5 Games and Giants6 Many Players7 Across the Waterfront8 Far-Flung Battle LinesFUTURE9 Navigating Mistrust

'Rory Medcalf helped define the Indo-Pacific region as an arena of intense strategic activity, with geopolitical rivalries and clashes of values among the great powers, while small countries seek to assert their identities and independence. This is an essential analysis of how these tensions might play out in the future and the challenges they pose to policy-makers.'Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies, King's College London ‘The Indo-Pacific is an idea whose time has come. Rory Medcalf has been crucial to both defining and promoting the idea of an Indo-Pacific region – and has now written a fast-paced and fascinating guide to this vital strategic concept.’Gideon Rachman, chief foreign affairs columnist for the Financial Times and author of Easternisation and Zero-Sum Future ‘Rory Medcalf gives us a fast-paced ride around the world’s newest, and most important, strategic arena. He has done more than anyone to introduce the world to the idea of the Indo-Pacific and this book is a convincing manifesto for a new vision of connectedness. This is the world with all the difficult bits left in.’Bill Hayton, author of The South China Sea: The Struggle for Power in Asia, and Associate Fellow, Chatham House‘The complexities of our region can easily bewilder those used to the Manichaean simplicity of the Cold War. Rory Medcalf’s book is an elegant, and keenly insightful, tour of the Indo Pacific’s strategic horizon.’Malcolm Turnbull, former Prime Minister of Australia‘Tightly organised and appealingly written, this is a superb primer on this potential economic juggernaut. A must-read.’James R. Clapper, former US Director of National Intelligence‘For the many nations finding their way around an unpredictable America and an assertive China, this book offers new choices from an ancient map. It holds ideas with power.’Peter Hartcher, political and international editor of The Sydney Morning Herald‘Rory Medcalf was among the first few to see the unfolding integration of the Pacific and Indian Oceans and unpack its strategic significance amidst the widespread scepticism that greeted the concept. This book offers deep insights into the origin of the idea, deconstructs the power dynamics shaping the region and delineates potential pathways to limit the conflict. A rich and rewarding read for anyone interested in a region that promises to define the geopolitics of the twenty-first century.’C. Raja Mohan, Director, Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore‘Rory Medcalf helped to pioneer the concept that Asia’s emerging geopolitical order would best be understood as a fusing of the Indian and Pacific Oceans into a new Indo-Pacific framework. With this book, he explains the rich tapestry of emerging regional dynamics and the evolution of a geopolitical concept that has been embraced by maritime Japan, India, Australia and the United States but contested by continental China. Medcalf makes a compelling case that the competition to define “Asia” is about more than just a name – it is about ideas, alignment and power. Medcalf’s book is essential reading for any scholar or practitioner seeking to understand the geopolitics of a region that will define all our futures.’Michael J. Green, Center for Strategic and International Studies and Georgetown University‘A tour de force of twenty-first-century geopolitical analysis that should be read by strategists and statesmen throughout the region and the world’Asian Review of Books'This engaging mental map of the Indo-Pacific and its regional origins is a rare security studies book that treats economics and ideational elements as integral to the challenge China poses for front-line states like Australia. All of us struggling to understand great power competition need to become ambidextrous if we are to develop policies to cope with a rising – or collapsing – China, and learning from Rory Medcalf’s book is a great place to start.’Kori Schake, Deputy Director-General, International Institute for Strategic Studies‘How does the world balance China’s emergence as a global superpower? What are the risks ahead? How do nation states dilute China’s hegemony and avoid capitulation to its interests? These and other pressing questions are examined in Rory Medcalf’s elegant and absorbing book. … A nuanced and subtle assessment of emerging power struggles in the region, with a strong focus on China. Optimistic, yet realistic about the possibilities of war and conflict, this is an essential guide for anyone – politician, policy specialist or informed citizen – interested in the future of the region.’Books + Publishing‘Elegant and absorbing … Optimistic, yet realistic about the possibilities of war and conflict, this is an essential guide.’Bookseller & Publisher ‘A vital contribution to this important ongoing discussion.’Penny Wong, Senator for South Australia‘A letter to the Indo-Pacific that is fundamentally optimistic about the role that Australia can play … A deeply insightful and timely contribution.’Marise Payne, Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs‘Medcalf is an intellectual who writes like a journalist … He is a thinker who has helped redefine Australia’s region and the scope of that region.’Graeme Dobell, The Strategist‘Timely and elegantly written. … Medcalf argues – and argues well – that China is helping merely to revive political and economic interactions, as well as a sense of place, that existed for many centuries before both the dissolution of the European empires in Asia and the politics of postcolonial nationalism broke many of those bonds. … Medcalf provides an astute and clear-eyed assessment.’Ian Hall, Asian Studies Review'Medcalf’s account is particularly valuable to the diplomats and security professionals engaged in executing the US National Defense Strategy, particularly those engaging with partners and allies. Beyond its engaging history and well-crafted narrative, Indo-Pacific Empire’s invaluable contribution is in holding up a mirror to the United States, helping an American reader to better understand how our actions appear in the eyes of our mates. In a contest between two superpowers, the ability to understand the positions and goals of our middle-power allies is vital. Though the argument for building confidence may be fading as the divide between China and the United States deepens, Indo-Pacific Empire deserves a place on military reading lists across the joint force.'The Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs'Medcalf has written the best book on the region…offering indispensable basics on the relevant geography, history, economics, strategy and national interests. First, Medcalf demonstrates that Indo-Pacific, a term in growing use since 2000, is an old yet valid construct, far superior to the usual "East Asia" or "Asia Pacific." The Chinese and Japanese economies both would stall without traversing the Indian Ocean. He adopts a realist view of China's economic and military – especially naval – expansionism: they will not be talked out of it. Beijing may lack a single master plan but shifts among commercial, strategic, and political tools to expand its influence. Through its Belt and Road Initiative, China loans massively to develop ports across the region. When debts cannot be repaid, the ports become de facto Chinese naval bases.'CHOICE