Improving and Enhancing Scenario Planning

Edited by Megan M. Crawford, Lecturer of Data Science, Department of Management, Edinburgh Napier University and George Wright, Professor, Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde, UK

• ContentsIntroduction 1PART I FOUNDATION1 Sorting out the “methodological chaos”: A tour of the main methodological structures of scenario planning 7Jörg M. Delhaes, Ana C. L. Vieira, António Alvarenga and Mónica D. Oliveira2 Update on a theoretical model of scenario planning: Empirical evidence and supporting research – towards a theory 33Thomas J. Chermack and Jessica M. Serkey BishopPART II FRAMING CONSIDERATIONS3 Escaping the Enlightenment’s damaging legacy: Scenario planning as if-then conditional prospection 54James Derbyshire4 The wayfinder’s approach to futures 73Mushfiqa Monica Jamaluddin, Heba Alhadyian and Abdulrahman Alsulaimi5 Reframing and futures literacy: Tackling the poverty of the modern imagination 96Kwamou Eva Feukeu6 The wilds beyond 2x2 futures: An enquiry into decolonising foresight 119Sophia Bazile and Geci Karuri-Sebina7 Exploring cultural diversity in scenario planning and futures thinking practices 143Per Dannemand Andersen and Monamie B. HainesPART III DEVELOPING SCENARIO STORYLINES 8 From causality to relationality: (Re)emplotting scenarios 166 Adam Cowart 9 Designing scenarios from stakeholders’ acts: Directions and lessons from extreme strategic action scenarios 183 Fabrice Roubelat and Anne Marchais-Roubelat PART IV PROCESS INTERVENTIONS 10 Examining emotion in the facilitation of scenario planning 202 Nicholas J. Rowland and Matthew J. Spaniol 11 Exploring creativity and insight in the scenario process 221 Gökhan Gökmen and Peter McKiernan 12 In the thick of it: Scenario planning at a time of crisis 244 Maureen Meadows, Alessandro Merendino and Frances A. O’Brien 13 Team diversity in scenario planning: Theoretical insights and implications for team composition 266 Harry Patria and Efstathios Tapinos 14 Leveraging AI for strategic foresight: Unveiling future horizons 286 Elena Fitkov-Norris and Nataliya Kocheva PART V PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS 15 The government foresight framework 307 Mariam Saif Al Mansoori 16 Designing utopian queer futures: Using scenario planning to think critically about the queer experience of artificial intelligence 330 Dawn McAra-Hunter 17 The COVID-19 pandemic as a wake-up call: Delphi-based scenarios and their implications for the generics and biosimilars industry 2030+ 354 Nick Lange, Heiko A. von der Gracht and Stefanie Kisgen 18 Methodological exploration of improved reference scenario approaches: A case study in NOVA SBE Executive Education 374 António Alvarenga and Ana C. L. Vieira PART VI OUTCOMES AND VALIDATIONS 19 Foresight, strategy, and impact 395 Adam Vigdor Gordon 20 A conceptual framework to evaluate scenarios and futures 406 Daniel J. W. Arthur and Graham W. Winch 21 Measuring the quality of scenarios generated using the simple scenarios technique 436 Dilek Önkal and Mandeep K. Dhami 22 Evaluating effects of scenario planning: Lessons from medical research 459 Shardul S. Phadnis Index 487

‘Scenario planning, as an anticipatory practice, is an important and ever-developing field of professional activity. The knowledge forming the basis for methods used continues to evolve through research and reflective practice, giving the field greater robustness. The impressive contributions to this book provide a source of well researched contemporary thinking and knowledge on many areas that connect to understanding, designing and implementing scenario planning. I would recommend this book to anyone concerned with methodological developments in scenario planning.’