Hurricane Risk

Dr. Jennifer Collins is a Professor in the School of Geosciences at the University of South Florida. Her research focuses on weather and climate. As a hurricane researcher, Dr. Collins is interested in the interaction between large scale climatic patterns such as the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden – Julian Oscillation and seasonal and intraseasonal patterns of tropical cyclone activity in multiple oceanic basins. She is currently studying the environmental factors influencing the interannual and intraseasonal variation of hurricane activity in the eastern North Pacific and Atlantic oceans. As well as her work in the physical sciences she also works in the social sciences as she examines human behavior relating to hurricane evacuation, with recent papers on Hurricane Matthew and Irma. In addition to her hurricane work, Dr. Collins works in other areas related to weather, climate and hazards. She works closely on projects with the National Weather Service involving tornadoes and fog. In addition, she collaborates with international researchers and works in the area of climate change. Dr. Collins is the President of the West Central Florida Chapter of the American Meteorological Society, recently elected National Councilor of the Association of American Geographers, and former Chair of the Climate Specialty Group of the Association of American Geographers. Kevin Walsh is Professor of Meteorology at the University of Melbourne. His research interests include climate change, climate variability and tropical meteorology, using both data analysis and numerical simulation techniques. He has managed numerous research and consulting projects for the Australian Department of Climate Change, for Australian state government authorities and for private industry. He is a former Editor of the Journal of Climate and an Associate Editor of the Australian Meteorological Magazine, as well as co-chair of the U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes. He is also a former President of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society.

• Introduction.- 1. Global and Regional variability of Tropical Cyclone-induced thermocline Warming.- 2. How has the expansion of the Tropics affected Tropical Cyclogensis?.- 3. Current and Future Cyclone Activity in High-resolution Global Model Ensemble Simulations.- 4. Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Changes in a Warmer Climate.- 5. Forecasting Catastrophe Losses in a Changing Climate.- Conclusions.