Handbook of Technological Forecasting and Roadmapping

Edited by Marina Dabić, Professor of International Entrepreneurship and International Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, University of Dubrovnik, Croatia, School of Economics and Business, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia and Tugrul U. Daim, Professor and Associate Director, Mark O. Hatfield Cybersecurity & Cyber Defence Policy Center, Portland State University, US

• ContentsForeword xxiScott W. CunninghamIntroduction: from foresight to impact, introducing forecasting and roadmapping in a transforming world 1Marina Dabić �and Tugrul U. DaimPART I INTRODUCTION TO TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT1 The foundation of the general theory of scientific variability for technological evolution: technological forecasting and managerial implications 13Mario Coccia2 Uncertainities & methods of Futurology, Forecasting, Foresight, and Futures Research. Case study: artificial intelligence (AI) 33Sahar Kousari and Sepehr Ghazinoory3 How medical virtual agents shape individuals’ behavioural activation systems: dealing with product intelligence and anthropomorphism, and implications for product design 50Andrea Sestino, Luigi Nasta and Stefano Bresciani4 Integrating technology foresight for problem-solving in European enterprises 65Marzenna Anna Weresa, Arkadiusz Michał Kowalski and Małgorzata Stefania Lewandowska5 Technology foresight toolbox: example from a global automotive supplier 90Volker GrienitzPART II TECHNOLOGY INTELLIGENCE BASED FORECASTING6 Future applications of artificial intelligence in smart manufacturing: a bibliometric approach 110Gordana Zeba, Marina Dabić �and Tugrul U. Daim7 Transformation of solar energy technologies through the lens of topic modeling 152Tugrul U. Daim, Marina Dabić, Amir Rahmani and Mehdi Zamani8 Consumer behavioural analytics in metaverses using machine and deep learning: a literature review and research agenda 175Pedro Mota Veiga, Sara Santos, Julien Diogo, João J. Ferreira and Cristina Fernandes9 An integrated approach to social, technological, economic, environmental and ethical dimensions in AI-driven smart and sustainable mobility 207Burcu Aracıoğlu, Haydar Yalçın and Tugrul U. Daim10 Fintech and supply chain management: exploring financial stability dynamics through techmining and expert insights 227Ali Erhan Zalluhoğlu, Dilek Demirhan, Türker Susmuş, Burcu Aracıoğlu, Şükrü Sertaç Çakı and Haydar Yalçın11 Roadmapping the emergence of smartphone technologies using patent analysis: a technology convergence perspective 262Yan Wang and Xin LiPART III ROADMAPPING METHODS12 Foresight insights from hindsight using retrospective roadmapping 283Killian Manyuchi and Robert Phaal13 Critical factors for the implementation of technology roadmapping in SMEs: the case of Trieste Coffee Cluster 305Cinzia Battistella, Gianluca Murgia and Roberto PillonPART IV ROADMAPPING EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES14 Technology roadmapping in e-commerce: the case study of Akinon e-commerce company 329Edwin Garces, Hakan Örengül, Missem Karakurt, Mueyyed Garzuddin, Talha Yiğit Aktan, Tuğçe Sayın, Yunus Emre Kılıçaslan and Fayez Alsoubaie15 A technology roadmap for a sustainable gaming industry 344Tugrul U. Daim, İrem Düzdar, Ezgi Idil Mert, Zeynep Kiral, Fatma Meltem Nur Masmas, Murat Sen and Huzeyfe Omer Abdusselamoglu16 Product roadmap for insurtech companies: the case of telematics 377Evren Balcı, Hüseyin Ege Gökcan, Meltem Mutlu, Ömer Faruk Kutlu, Sena Yüzer, Angel Contreras Cruz and Tugrul U. Daim17 Technology roadmap for the fintech industry 390Gülin İdil S. Bolatan, Nilay Öcal, Sercan Ger, Seval Cirlak, Fatih Safa Aktaş, Yunus Emre Kuzu, İlayda Kargacı and İrem Nur Eryaş18 Pharmaceutical technology roadmap 402Denizhan Demirkol, Shahrzad Z.G. Vahdat, Sıla Yildirim, Dilara Özgür, Ramazan Dere, Fatma Cayvaz Parlak, Zeynep Çetinkale and Tugrul U. Daim19 Yıldız Technopark product roadmap for AI companies: chatbot 421Nihan Yıldırım, Tugrul U. Daim, Dilara Özyıldırım, Alper Yıldız, Hakan Turpcu, Gökhan Özbek, Hasan Hüseyin Çelebi, Özlem Genç, Arda Nusirevan Toprak and Şeymanur Usta20 Last mile delivery and logistic industry roadmap 438Arzu Karaman Akgül, Çağla Uçkan, Mehmet Vefa İlgün, Aykut Celep, Ahmet Hakan Parlak and Tugrul U. DaimPART V ROADMAPPING FOR DISASTERS21 A technology roadmap for sustainable energy infrastructure in case of natural disasters 452Tugrul U. Daim, M. Özgür Kayalica, Üner Çolak, İrem Düzdar, Nihan Yıldırım, Gülin İdil S. Bolatan, Darya Amini, Denizhan Guven, Arda Korkmaz, Ali Elmas, Cafer Şutaşdemir, İlke Bişkin, Mehmet Kürşat Tek, Mustafa Ülker and Buğra Kocadağ22 Technology roadmapping for resilient and mobile energy systems to sustain electricity continuity after earthquakes 472M. Özgür Kayalica, Sermin Onaygil, Atakan Kiracı, Erdem Hayat, Furkan Koçaslan, Murat Doğukan Dolaz, Tamer Koç and Darya Amini23 Technology roadmap for disaster response and recovery in energy systems 489Tugrul U. Daim, Nihan Yıldırım, M. Özgür Kayalica, Gülin İdil S. Bolatan, İrem Düzdar, Darya Amini, Barış �Tekin, Sevgi As, Hüseyin Yildirim, Sevim Beçet, Talha Görücü and Denizhan GuvenIndex 507

‘In these uncertain times forecasting and roadmapping are essential tools in forming strategies that are resilient to change. This book takes the reader on a journey into advanced AI and data- driven approaches and illustrates their application in a diverse range of sectors. I recommend it to all who are seeking systematic ways to grasp the future.’