Handbook of Survey-Based Business Cycle Analysis

Inbunden, Engelska, 2007

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This Handbook aims to provide an overview of regular survey activities, as well as to show how survey results can be used scientifically in the context of business-cycle analysis and forecasting. Examples of various business surveys are described in detail, starting with their objectives, the questions they pose, how they are weighted and extrapolated and the representativeness of their results. A detailed scientific examination of the explanatory value of the data is also made in order to demonstrate their potential usefulness. The Handbook has three parts: firstly, it presents the importance of business surveys for empirical research. Secondly, selected surveys are introduced in detail such as the Ifo Business Survey and the Ifo Investment Survey, and thirdly, a broad spectrum of studies - on the consequence of the survey results - is presented. The significance of the surveys applies equally to business cycle analysis and to forecasting. An array of modern methods of time series analysis and econometric model construction is used in these investigations.This book will be of interest to an audience comprising members of institutions conducting business surveys, scientists using survey results to analyse and forecast business cycles, and students of empirical economic research.

Produktinformation

Utgivningsdatum2007-01-26
Mått156 x 234 x undefined mm
FormatInbunden
SpråkEngelska
SerieIfo Economic Policy series
FörlagEdward Elgar Publishing Ltd
ISBN9781847201362

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Contents:IntroductionPART I: PHENOMENON OF BUSINESS CYCLES1. The Importance of Representative Surveys of Enterprises forEmpirically Oriented Business Cycle ResearchGernot NerbPART II: BUSINESS SURVEYS OF THE IFO INSTITUTE2. Business Survey in ManufacturingWolfgang Ruppert3. Business Survey in ServicesHarald Blau4. Investment Survey in ManufacturingAnnette Weichselberger5. World Economic SurveyAnna Stangl6. Innovation SurveyHorst PenzkoferPART III: ANALYTICAL AND PROGNOSTIC SIGNIFICANCE OFSURVEY DATA7. Short-Term Industry Branch Forecasting Based on the Results ofthe Ifo Business SurveyGeorg Goldrian8. The Significance of the Ifo Business Survey Data at the RegionalLevelGeorg Goldrian9. Suitability of WES Data for Forecasting InflationSandra Hamella and Harry Haupt10. Methods of Economic Forecasting and Business Cycle IndicatorsWolfgang Nierhaus and Jan-Egbert Sturm11. Evaluation and Development of Composite Leading IndicatorsBased on Harmonised Business and Consumer SurveysJürg D. Lindlbauer12. A Leading Indicator Composed of Survey Data: Appropriate Construction and Prognostic SignificanceGeorg Goldrian13. Can the Ifo Business Climate Indicator Improve Short-Term GDPForecasts? Erich Langmantel14. The Accuracy of Turning Point Predictions with the Ifo BusinessClimateChristian Hott, André Kunkel and Gernot Nerb15. A Leading Indicator for Equipment InvestmentJoachim Gürtler16. Ifo Survey on Employment Plans: Sectoral EvaluationKlaus Abberger17. On the Methodology of Business Cycle AnalysisStefan Mittnik and Klaus WohlrabeIndex