Global Dynamics

Alan Wilson, Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London, UK. His research interests have been concerned with many aspects of mathematical modelling and the use of models in planning in relation to all aspects of cities and regions - including demography, economic input-output modelling, transport and locational structures. He was responsible for the introduction of a number of model building techniques which are now in common use internationally. These models have been widely used in areas such as transport planning. He made important contributions through the rigorous deployment of accounts' concepts in demography and economic modelling. In recent years he has been particularly concerned with applications of dynamical systems theory in relation to the task of modelling the evolution of urban structure — initially described in Catastrophe theory and bifurcation: applications to urban and regional systems. His current research, supported by ESRC and EPSRC grants of around ?3M, is on the evolution of cities and the dynamics of global trade and migration.

• Notes on Contributors xiiiAcknowledgements xviiPart I GLOBAL DYNAMICS AND THE TOOLS OF COMPLEXITY SCIENCE1 Global Dynamics and the Tools of Complexity Science 3Alan WilsonReference 7Part II TRADE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT2 The Global Trade System and Its Evolution 11Simone Caschili and Francesca Medda2.1 The Evolution of the Shipping and Ports’ System 112.2 Analyses of the Cargo Ship Network 122.3 A Complex Adaptive Systems (CASs) Perspective 152.4 Conclusions: The Benefits of a Systems Perspective 20References 21Appendix 23A.1 Complexity Science and Complex Adaptive Systems: Key Characteristics 23A.1.1 Four Properties 24A.1.2 Three Mechanisms 253 An Interdependent Multi-layer Model for Trade 26Simone Caschili, Francesca Medda, and Alan Wilson3.1 Introduction 263.2 The Interdependent Multi-layer Model: Vertical Integration 273.3 Model Layers 303.3.1 Economic Layer 303.3.2 Social and Cultural Layer (Socio-cultural) 333.3.3 Physical Layer 343.4 The Workings of the Model 343.5 Model Calibration 353.6 Result 1: Steady State 393.7 Result 2: Estimation and Propagation of Shocks in the IMM 423.8 Discussion and Conclusions 48References 484 A Global Inter-country Economic Model Based on Linked Input–Output Models 51Robert G. Levy, Thomas P. Oléron Evans, and Alan Wilson4.1 Introduction 514.2 Existing Global Economic Models 524.3 Description of the Model 534.3.1 Outline 534.3.2 Introduction to Input–Output Tables 534.3.3 A Single Country Model 554.3.4 An International Trade Model 574.3.5 Setting Model Coefficients from Data 584.4 Solving the Model 584.4.1 The Leontief Equation 584.4.2 The Drawbacks of Mathematical Elegance 594.4.3 Algorithm for an Iterative Solution 594.5 Analysis 614.5.1 Introduction 614.5.2 Simple Modelling Approaches 614.5.3 A Unified Network Approach 644.5.4 Comparison with a Multi-region Input–Output Model 674.6 Conclusions 67Acknowledgements 69References 69Appendix 71A.1 Modelling the ‘Rest of the World’ 71A.2 Services Trade Data 71A.2.1 Importing Own Exports 72A.2.2 The Rest of the World for Sectors 72Part III MIGRATION5 Global Migration Modelling: A Review of Key Policy Needs and Research Centres 75Adam Dennett and Pablo Mateos5.1 Introduction 755.2 Policy and Migration Research 765.2.1 Key Policy Issues in Contemporary Migration Research 765.2.2 Linking Policy Issues to Modelling Challenges 815.2.3 Policy-related Research Questions for Modellers 825.2.4 Other International Migration Modelling Research 835.3 Conclusion 84References 84Appendix 87A.1 United Kingdom 87A.2 Rest of Europe 90A.3 Rest of the World 946 Estimating Inter-regional Migration in Europe 97Adam Dennett and Alan Wilson6.1 Introduction 976.2 The Spatial System and the Modelling Challenge 986.3 Biproportional Fitting Modelling Methodology 1006.3.1 Model (i) 1046.3.2 Model (ii) 1056.3.3 Model (iii) 1056.3.4 Model (iv) 1086.3.5 Model (v) 1096.3.6 Model (vi) 1106.4 Model Parameter Calibration 1106.5 Model Experiments 1136.6 Results 1186.7 Conclusions and Comments on the New Framework for Estimating Inter-regional, Inter-country Migration Flows in Europe 121References 1237 Estimating an Annual Time Series of Global Migration Flows – An Alternative Methodology for Using Migrant Stock Data 125Adam Dennett7.1 Introduction 1257.2 Methodology 1297.2.1 Introduction 1297.2.2 Calculating Migration Probabilities 1297.2.3 Calculating Total Migrants in the Global System 1307.2.4 Generating a Consistent Time Series of Migration Probabilities 1337.2.5 Producing Annual Bilateral Estimates 1357.3 Results and Validation 1357.3.1 Introduction 1357.3.2 IMEM comparison 1357.3.3 UN Flow Data Comparison 1367.4 Discussion 1387.5 Conclusions 140References 140Part IV SECURITY8 Conflict Modelling: Spatial Interaction as Threat 145Peter Baudains and Alan Wilson8.1 Introduction 1458.2 Conflict Intensity: Space–Time Patterning of Events 1468.3 Understanding Conflict Onset: Simulation-based Models 1488.4 Forecasting Global Conflict Hotspots 1508.5 A Spatial Model of Threat 1508.6 Discussion: The Use of a Spatial Threat Measure in Models of Conflict 1538.6.1 Threat in Models for Operational Decision-Making 1538.6.2 Threat in a Model of Conflict Escalation 1548.6.3 Threat in Modelling Global Military Expenditure 1568.6.4 Summary 156References 1579 Riots 159Peter Baudains9.1 Introduction 1599.2 The 2011 Riots in London 1609.2.1 Space–Time Interaction 1629.2.2 Journey to Crime 1649.2.3 Characteristics of Rioters 1659.3 Data-Driven Modelling of Riot Diffusion 1669.4 Statistical Modelling of Target Choice 1699.5 A Generative Model of the Riots 1719.6 Discussion 172References 17310 Rebellions 175Peter Baudains, Jyoti Belur, Alex Braithwaite, Elio Marchione and Shane D. Johnson10.1 Introduction 17510.2 Data 17610.3 Hawkes model 17710.4 Results 18110.5 Discussion 183References 18511 Spatial Interaction as Threat: Modelling Maritime Piracy 187Elio Marchione and Alan Wilson11.1 The Model 18711.2 The Test Case 18811.3 Uses of the Model 189Reference 191Appendix 192A.1 Volume Field of Type k Ship 192A.2 Volume Field of Naval Units 193A.3 Pirates Ports and Mother Ships 19312 Space–Time Modelling of Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq 195Alex Braithwaite and Shane Johnson12.1 Introduction 19512.2 Counterinsurgency in Iraq 19612.3 Counterinsurgency Data 20012.4 Diagnoses of Space, Time and Space–Time Distributions 20212.4.1 Introduction 20212.4.2 Spatial Distribution 20212.4.3 Temporal Distribution 20312.4.4 Space–Time Distribution 20312.4.5 Univariate Knox Analysis 20612.4.6 Bivariate Knox Analysis 20812.5 Concluding Comments 210References 21213 International Information Flows, Government Response and the Contagion of Ethnic Conflict 214Janina Beiser13.1 Introduction 21413.2 Global Information Flows 21613.3 The Effect of Information Flows on Armed Civil Conflict 22013.4 The Effect of Information Flows on Government Repression 22513.5 Conclusion 226References 226Appendix 229Part V AID AND DEVELOPMENT14 International Development Aid: A Complex System 233Belinda Wu14.1 Introduction: A Complex Systems’ Perspective 23314.2 The International Development Aid System: Definitions 23414.3 Features of International Development Aid as a Complex System 23514.3.1 Introduction 23514.3.2 Non-linearity 23514.3.3 Connectedness 23714.3.4 Self-Adapting and Self-Organising 23814.3.5 Emergence 23814.4 Complexity and Approaches to Research 23814.4.1 Organisations 23814.4.2 The Range of Issues 23914.4.3 Research Approaches 24014.4.4 The Complexity Science Approach 24214.5 The Assessment of the Effectiveness of International Development Aid 24214.5.1 Whether Aid Can Be Effective 24214.5.2 Complexity in the Measurement of Aid Effectiveness 24414.5.3 Complexity in Methods/Standards of Measurement of Aid Effectiveness 24514.5.4 Standardising Aid Effectiveness 24614.6 Relationships and Interactions 24814.6.1 Relationships between Donor and Recipient Countries 24814.6.2 Relationships between Aid and Other Systems 24914.7 Conclusions 251References 25215 Model Building for the Complex System of International Development Aid 257Belinda Wu, Sean Hanna and Alan Wilson15.1 Introduction 25715.2 Data Collection 25815.2.1 Introduction 25815.2.2 Aid Data 25815.2.3 Trade Data 26015.2.4 Security Data 26115.2.5 Migration Data 26115.2.6 Geographical Data 26115.2.7 Data Selected 26215.3 Model Building 26315.3.1 Modelling Approach 26315.3.2 Alesina and Dollar Model 26315.3.3 Our Models 26415.3.4 Model B: Introducing Donor Interactions and Modification of the Model 26715.3.5 Findings from Model B 26715.3.6 Model C: Introducing Interactions with Trade System and Further Modification of the Model 26715.3.7 Findings from Model C 26815.4 Discussion and Future Work 268References 26916 Aid Allocation: A Complex Perspective 271Robert J. Downes and Steven R. Bishop16.1 Aid Allocation Networks 27116.1.1 Introduction 27116.1.2 Why Networks? 27216.1.3 Donor Motivation in Aid Allocation 27316.2 Quantifying Aid via a Mathematical Model 27316.2.1 Overview of Approach 27316.2.2 Basic Set-Up 27416.2.3 The Network of Nations 27516.2.4 Preference Functions 27516.2.5 Specifying the Preference Functions 27516.2.6 Recipient Selection by Donors 27616.3 Application of the Model 27716.3.1 Introduction 27716.3.2 Scenario 1. No Feedback 27716.3.3 Scenario 2. Bandwagon Feedback 28116.3.4 Scenario 3. Aid Effectiveness Feedback 28316.3.5 Aid Usage Mechanism 28416.3.6 Application 28616.3.7 Conclusions 28716.4 Remarks 287Acknowledgements 288References 288Appendix 290A.1 Common Functional Definitions 290Part VI GLOBAL DYNAMICS: AN INTEGRATED MODEL AND POLICY CHALLENGES17 An Integrated Model 293Robert G. Levy17.1 Introduction 29317.2 Adding Migration 29417.2.1 Introduction 29417.2.2 The Familiarity Effect 29517.2.3 Consumption Similarity 30117.2.4 Conclusions 30417.3 Adding Aid 30417.3.1 Introduction 30417.3.2 Estimating ‘Exportness’ 30517.3.3 Modelling Approach 30617.3.4 Results 30617.3.5 Conclusions 31417.4 Adding Security 31617.4.1 Introduction 31617.4.2 Literature Review 31617.4.3 Measures of Threat and the Global Dynamics Model 31717.4.4 Trade during Changing Security Conditions 31817.4.5 An Experiment of Increased Threat in the Global Dynamics Model 31817.4.6 Conclusions 32217.5 Concluding Comments 323References 324Index 327