Stéphane Le Lay is a specialist in occupational health, a sociologist and a researcher at the Institut de Psychodynamique du Travail, France. Emmanuelle Savignac is an anthropologist and senior lecturer at the Université de la Sorbonne Nouvelle and a researcher at CERLIS (CNRS) in France. Pierre Lénel is an associate researcher in the Interdisciplinary Laboratory for Economic Sociology at CNAM-CNRS, France. Jean Frances is a sociologist and senior lecturer at ENSTA Bretagne, France.

• Foreword xiIntroduction xvPart 1. Observing and Discerning: Contextualizing the Situation and Recommending a Consistent Set of Options 1Chapter 1. Understanding the Strategic Landscape 31.1. Understanding the decision-making situation 41.1.1. Identifying the variables and factors that make up the situation 41.1.2. Detecting the context of the situation through structural analysis 51.2. Representing the context of the action 151.2.1. Addressing the situational context through nested frames 161.2.2. Conceptualizing the strategic landscape as a system with three macrocomponents 171.2.3. Reconstructing the multilevel landscape system 261.2.4. Configuring the intervention as a system connected to the landscape 321.2.5. Specifying the interactions of the “landscape” and “intervention” systems 32Chapter 2. Imagining and Directing Plausible Futures 372.1. Exploring the future through the use of scenarios 372.1.1. Reorienting scenarios as a core element of foresight 382.1.2. Building frames or scenario profiles 392.1.3. Sketching morphological profiles 432.1.4. Adopting a two-step procedure 452.2. Reinforcing and fleshing out the scenarios 602.2.1. Enriching and completing global scenarios 602.2.2. Periodically updating the scenarios 632.2.3. Using scenarios for strategic purposes 65Chapter 3. Developing Relevant Strategic Initiatives 673.1. Defining objectives and considering options 673.1.1. Specifying and defining the main orientations 683.1.2. Drafting consistent action profiles 693.1.3. The case of the industrial future of a department in Ile-de-France 723.2. Transforming options into project concepts 753.2.1. Creating the tree of objectives 753.2.2. Detecting the critical conditions for achieving objectives 773.2.3. Summarizing each option in the form of a logical framework 803.2.4. Aggregating projects into coherent programs 853.2.5. Considering the plan as a metaprogram of actions 88Part 2. Judging and Arbitrating: Evaluating and Reconfiguring Recommendations to Decide on a Successful Intervention 91Chapter 4. Defining Priorities and Gauging Courses of Action 934.1. Clarifying preferences and comparing options 934.1.1. Setting up the overall performance appraisal system 954.1.2. Structuring and weighting criteria according to their hierarchical breakdown 974.1.3. Determining the estimators and scales of appreciation of the options according to the operational criteria 1004.2. Evaluating options according to the macrocriteria to inform the decision 1004.2.1. Appreciating congruence with the context of intervention as a springboard for pragmatism 1014.2.2. Assessing future validity as an indicator of future pluralism 1064.2.3. Assessing the adequacy of the strategic reference as a guarantee of finalism 1114.3. Gauging the options according to their propensity to immerse themselves favorably in the strategic landscape: interpreting and appropriating the triad of macrocriteria 1134.3.1. A subtle mix of key priorities 1134.3.2. An evolving assessment of the intervention according to the macrocriteria 1154.3.3. Using fundamentally circumstantial multicriteria assessment 116Chapter 5. Revealing Areas of Potential and Adopting a Decision-making Logic 119 5.1. Modeling the decision problem and scrutinizing the spaces of freedom and opportunity 1195.1.1. Considering strategic initiatives in terms of composite options 1205.1.2. Revealing the scope of plural actions 1285.2. Making wise use of uncertainty and ambiguity 1325.2.1. Adopting a strategic posture according to the level of uncertainty 1325.2.2. Exercising circumspection in an almost inextricable situation 135Chapter 6. Recomposing Solutions and Making the Best Decisions 1376.1. Reconciling requirements and risks by combining simulation and optimization 1386.1.1. Conducting a cascading arbitration and selection process 1386.1.2. Adjusting inconsistent interventions by adapting them to constraint 1396.1.3. Developing a robust trade-off in a reasonably uncertain future 1416.1.4. Guarding cautiously against contingencies and any eventuality 1446.1.5. Changing the conditions to modify or transform the intervention 1496.2. Interpreting optimized solutions to support the decision 1506.2.1. Visualizing the results in a triptych of dashboards 1506.2.2. Revealing performance levels for the objectives-criteria 1526.2.3. Describing the composition of the options and exploiting the room for maneuver 1546.2.4. Identifying saturation and estimating the pressure of constraints 1566.2.5. Detecting and estimating the value of proactive deposits 159Part 3. Acting and Intervening: Judiciously Guiding Action to Generate a Virtuous Dynamic 161Chapter 7. Identifying Predispositions to Act and Generating Compromises 1637.1. Deciphering the power relationships and power factors of the actors 1647.1.1. Schematizing the conceptual approach and introducing key concepts 1657.1.2. Determining the power effect (or leverage) 1707.1.3. Conducting a structural analysis of the actors in terms of their strengths or powers 1727.1.4. Interpreting the power relationships according to the stature and posture of the actors 1747.2. Extending the analytical framework to a metasystem incorporating actors and objectives 1807.2.1. Globalizing the existence of each actor on the basis of their relations to the subsystem of factors and objectives 1817.2.2. Aggregating the existence of each objective based on its relationship to the two subsystems of objectives and actors: visible and/or hidden preponderance and prevalence 1837.2.3. Extending the relational existence of each actor by adding successive dimensions 1837.2.4. Measuring the overall coherence and the capacity for relational convergence of the metasystem 1857.3. Interpreting the dialectic of transformation of the interplay between actors 1867.3.1. Diagnosing dynamic power accesses 1877.3.2. Interpreting the dialectic of power access regimes 191Chapter 8. Breathing Lasting Vitality into the Long Term 1978.1. A gradual movement towards a good start 1998.1.1. Mobilizing a triad of key skills to guide action 2008.1.2. Bringing together the three dimensions of performance evaluation: finality, pluralism with regard to the future, and pragmatism 2018.1.3. Driving and animating wise actions: a conceptual insight 2048.1.4. Promoting a dizzying rise towards beneficial action 2098.2. Working for sustainable viability, generating vitality 2128.2.1. Gaining directivity through continuous monitoring and evaluation of finality: a dialogical spiral between voluntarism and conservatism 2128.2.2. Gaining insight and agility through the permanent regulation of pluralism and pragmatism 2148.2.3. Stimulating the emergence of sustainability through a proven experience of overall performance 2178.3. Ensuring the completion of the vortex elevation 2198.3.1. Gaining access to prosperity, sustainability, and vivacity as completion of directivity, perspicacity, and agility 2208.3.2. Tending towards vitality as a sublimation of viability and a complement to prosperity, sustainability, and vivacity 220Chapter 9. Forging a Guidance System and Deploying Skills 2239.1. Reinvigorating practices of anticipation 2259.1.1. Differentiating and making normative approaches more flexible 2259.1.2. Comparing and enriching the results at the different stages of the process 2269.1.3. Committing to reinvigorating the process of forward thinking or strategic planning 2299.2. Making the process more fluid and sustainable through deployment plans and projects 2349.2.1. Considering the main structures involved 2349.2.2. Strengthening institutional anchoring and organizational learning 2349.2.3. Preserving the logic and prerogatives of the preceding parts 2359.2.4. Opting for a strengthened approach capable of percolating through the organization 2369.2.5. The case of a project to strengthen technical-institutional capacities in strategic foresight 2379.3. Practicing, integrating, and appropriating the strategic engineering approach 2409.3.1. Thinking of organization and action as holomorphic 2409.3.2. Organizing conferences, specific training courses, or on-site strategic engineering projects in a modular manner 2429.3.3. Promoting and developing advanced strategic engineering instruments 247Conclusion 249Postface 251Glossary 255References 265Index 273

Select Guide Rating

Stéphane Le Lay is a specialist in occupational health, a sociologist and a researcher at the Institut de Psychodynamique du Travail, France. Emmanuelle Savignac is an anthropologist and senior lecturer at the Université de la Sorbonne Nouvelle and a researcher at CERLIS (CNRS) in France. Pierre Lénel is an associate researcher in the Interdisciplinary Laboratory for Economic Sociology at CNAM-CNRS, France. Jean Frances is a sociologist and senior lecturer at ENSTA Bretagne, France.

• Foreword xiIntroduction xvPart 1. Observing and Discerning: Contextualizing the Situation and Recommending a Consistent Set of Options 1Chapter 1. Understanding the Strategic Landscape 31.1. Understanding the decision-making situation 41.1.1. Identifying the variables and factors that make up the situation 41.1.2. Detecting the context of the situation through structural analysis 51.2. Representing the context of the action 151.2.1. Addressing the situational context through nested frames 161.2.2. Conceptualizing the strategic landscape as a system with three macrocomponents 171.2.3. Reconstructing the multilevel landscape system 261.2.4. Configuring the intervention as a system connected to the landscape 321.2.5. Specifying the interactions of the “landscape” and “intervention” systems 32Chapter 2. Imagining and Directing Plausible Futures 372.1. Exploring the future through the use of scenarios 372.1.1. Reorienting scenarios as a core element of foresight 382.1.2. Building frames or scenario profiles 392.1.3. Sketching morphological profiles 432.1.4. Adopting a two-step procedure 452.2. Reinforcing and fleshing out the scenarios 602.2.1. Enriching and completing global scenarios 602.2.2. Periodically updating the scenarios 632.2.3. Using scenarios for strategic purposes 65Chapter 3. Developing Relevant Strategic Initiatives 673.1. Defining objectives and considering options 673.1.1. Specifying and defining the main orientations 683.1.2. Drafting consistent action profiles 693.1.3. The case of the industrial future of a department in Ile-de-France 723.2. Transforming options into project concepts 753.2.1. Creating the tree of objectives 753.2.2. Detecting the critical conditions for achieving objectives 773.2.3. Summarizing each option in the form of a logical framework 803.2.4. Aggregating projects into coherent programs 853.2.5. Considering the plan as a metaprogram of actions 88Part 2. Judging and Arbitrating: Evaluating and Reconfiguring Recommendations to Decide on a Successful Intervention 91Chapter 4. Defining Priorities and Gauging Courses of Action 934.1. Clarifying preferences and comparing options 934.1.1. Setting up the overall performance appraisal system 954.1.2. Structuring and weighting criteria according to their hierarchical breakdown 974.1.3. Determining the estimators and scales of appreciation of the options according to the operational criteria 1004.2. Evaluating options according to the macrocriteria to inform the decision 1004.2.1. Appreciating congruence with the context of intervention as a springboard for pragmatism 1014.2.2. Assessing future validity as an indicator of future pluralism 1064.2.3. Assessing the adequacy of the strategic reference as a guarantee of finalism 1114.3. Gauging the options according to their propensity to immerse themselves favorably in the strategic landscape: interpreting and appropriating the triad of macrocriteria 1134.3.1. A subtle mix of key priorities 1134.3.2. An evolving assessment of the intervention according to the macrocriteria 1154.3.3. Using fundamentally circumstantial multicriteria assessment 116Chapter 5. Revealing Areas of Potential and Adopting a Decision-making Logic 119 5.1. Modeling the decision problem and scrutinizing the spaces of freedom and opportunity 1195.1.1. Considering strategic initiatives in terms of composite options 1205.1.2. Revealing the scope of plural actions 1285.2. Making wise use of uncertainty and ambiguity 1325.2.1. Adopting a strategic posture according to the level of uncertainty 1325.2.2. Exercising circumspection in an almost inextricable situation 135Chapter 6. Recomposing Solutions and Making the Best Decisions 1376.1. Reconciling requirements and risks by combining simulation and optimization 1386.1.1. Conducting a cascading arbitration and selection process 1386.1.2. Adjusting inconsistent interventions by adapting them to constraint 1396.1.3. Developing a robust trade-off in a reasonably uncertain future 1416.1.4. Guarding cautiously against contingencies and any eventuality 1446.1.5. Changing the conditions to modify or transform the intervention 1496.2. Interpreting optimized solutions to support the decision 1506.2.1. Visualizing the results in a triptych of dashboards 1506.2.2. Revealing performance levels for the objectives-criteria 1526.2.3. Describing the composition of the options and exploiting the room for maneuver 1546.2.4. Identifying saturation and estimating the pressure of constraints 1566.2.5. Detecting and estimating the value of proactive deposits 159Part 3. Acting and Intervening: Judiciously Guiding Action to Generate a Virtuous Dynamic 161Chapter 7. Identifying Predispositions to Act and Generating Compromises 1637.1. Deciphering the power relationships and power factors of the actors 1647.1.1. Schematizing the conceptual approach and introducing key concepts 1657.1.2. Determining the power effect (or leverage) 1707.1.3. Conducting a structural analysis of the actors in terms of their strengths or powers 1727.1.4. Interpreting the power relationships according to the stature and posture of the actors 1747.2. Extending the analytical framework to a metasystem incorporating actors and objectives 1807.2.1. Globalizing the existence of each actor on the basis of their relations to the subsystem of factors and objectives 1817.2.2. Aggregating the existence of each objective based on its relationship to the two subsystems of objectives and actors: visible and/or hidden preponderance and prevalence 1837.2.3. Extending the relational existence of each actor by adding successive dimensions 1837.2.4. Measuring the overall coherence and the capacity for relational convergence of the metasystem 1857.3. Interpreting the dialectic of transformation of the interplay between actors 1867.3.1. Diagnosing dynamic power accesses 1877.3.2. Interpreting the dialectic of power access regimes 191Chapter 8. Breathing Lasting Vitality into the Long Term 1978.1. A gradual movement towards a good start 1998.1.1. Mobilizing a triad of key skills to guide action 2008.1.2. Bringing together the three dimensions of performance evaluation: finality, pluralism with regard to the future, and pragmatism 2018.1.3. Driving and animating wise actions: a conceptual insight 2048.1.4. Promoting a dizzying rise towards beneficial action 2098.2. Working for sustainable viability, generating vitality 2128.2.1. Gaining directivity through continuous monitoring and evaluation of finality: a dialogical spiral between voluntarism and conservatism 2128.2.2. Gaining insight and agility through the permanent regulation of pluralism and pragmatism 2148.2.3. Stimulating the emergence of sustainability through a proven experience of overall performance 2178.3. Ensuring the completion of the vortex elevation 2198.3.1. Gaining access to prosperity, sustainability, and vivacity as completion of directivity, perspicacity, and agility 2208.3.2. Tending towards vitality as a sublimation of viability and a complement to prosperity, sustainability, and vivacity 220Chapter 9. Forging a Guidance System and Deploying Skills 2239.1. Reinvigorating practices of anticipation 2259.1.1. Differentiating and making normative approaches more flexible 2259.1.2. Comparing and enriching the results at the different stages of the process 2269.1.3. Committing to reinvigorating the process of forward thinking or strategic planning 2299.2. Making the process more fluid and sustainable through deployment plans and projects 2349.2.1. Considering the main structures involved 2349.2.2. Strengthening institutional anchoring and organizational learning 2349.2.3. Preserving the logic and prerogatives of the preceding parts 2359.2.4. Opting for a strengthened approach capable of percolating through the organization 2369.2.5. The case of a project to strengthen technical-institutional capacities in strategic foresight 2379.3. Practicing, integrating, and appropriating the strategic engineering approach 2409.3.1. Thinking of organization and action as holomorphic 2409.3.2. Organizing conferences, specific training courses, or on-site strategic engineering projects in a modular manner 2429.3.3. Promoting and developing advanced strategic engineering instruments 247Conclusion 249Postface 251Glossary 255References 265Index 273

Select Guide Rating

Stéphane Le Lay is a specialist in occupational health, a sociologist and a researcher at the Institut de Psychodynamique du Travail, France. Emmanuelle Savignac is an anthropologist and senior lecturer at the Université de la Sorbonne Nouvelle and a researcher at CERLIS (CNRS) in France. Pierre Lénel is an associate researcher in the Interdisciplinary Laboratory for Economic Sociology at CNAM-CNRS, France. Jean Frances is a sociologist and senior lecturer at ENSTA Bretagne, France.

• Foreword xiIntroduction xvPart 1. Observing and Discerning: Contextualizing the Situation and Recommending a Consistent Set of Options 1Chapter 1. Understanding the Strategic Landscape 31.1. Understanding the decision-making situation 41.1.1. Identifying the variables and factors that make up the situation 41.1.2. Detecting the context of the situation through structural analysis 51.2. Representing the context of the action 151.2.1. Addressing the situational context through nested frames 161.2.2. Conceptualizing the strategic landscape as a system with three macrocomponents 171.2.3. Reconstructing the multilevel landscape system 261.2.4. Configuring the intervention as a system connected to the landscape 321.2.5. Specifying the interactions of the “landscape” and “intervention” systems 32Chapter 2. Imagining and Directing Plausible Futures 372.1. Exploring the future through the use of scenarios 372.1.1. Reorienting scenarios as a core element of foresight 382.1.2. Building frames or scenario profiles 392.1.3. Sketching morphological profiles 432.1.4. Adopting a two-step procedure 452.2. Reinforcing and fleshing out the scenarios 602.2.1. Enriching and completing global scenarios 602.2.2. Periodically updating the scenarios 632.2.3. Using scenarios for strategic purposes 65Chapter 3. Developing Relevant Strategic Initiatives 673.1. Defining objectives and considering options 673.1.1. Specifying and defining the main orientations 683.1.2. Drafting consistent action profiles 693.1.3. The case of the industrial future of a department in Ile-de-France 723.2. Transforming options into project concepts 753.2.1. Creating the tree of objectives 753.2.2. Detecting the critical conditions for achieving objectives 773.2.3. Summarizing each option in the form of a logical framework 803.2.4. Aggregating projects into coherent programs 853.2.5. Considering the plan as a metaprogram of actions 88Part 2. Judging and Arbitrating: Evaluating and Reconfiguring Recommendations to Decide on a Successful Intervention 91Chapter 4. Defining Priorities and Gauging Courses of Action 934.1. Clarifying preferences and comparing options 934.1.1. Setting up the overall performance appraisal system 954.1.2. Structuring and weighting criteria according to their hierarchical breakdown 974.1.3. Determining the estimators and scales of appreciation of the options according to the operational criteria 1004.2. Evaluating options according to the macrocriteria to inform the decision 1004.2.1. Appreciating congruence with the context of intervention as a springboard for pragmatism 1014.2.2. Assessing future validity as an indicator of future pluralism 1064.2.3. Assessing the adequacy of the strategic reference as a guarantee of finalism 1114.3. Gauging the options according to their propensity to immerse themselves favorably in the strategic landscape: interpreting and appropriating the triad of macrocriteria 1134.3.1. A subtle mix of key priorities 1134.3.2. An evolving assessment of the intervention according to the macrocriteria 1154.3.3. Using fundamentally circumstantial multicriteria assessment 116Chapter 5. Revealing Areas of Potential and Adopting a Decision-making Logic 119 5.1. Modeling the decision problem and scrutinizing the spaces of freedom and opportunity 1195.1.1. Considering strategic initiatives in terms of composite options 1205.1.2. Revealing the scope of plural actions 1285.2. Making wise use of uncertainty and ambiguity 1325.2.1. Adopting a strategic posture according to the level of uncertainty 1325.2.2. Exercising circumspection in an almost inextricable situation 135Chapter 6. Recomposing Solutions and Making the Best Decisions 1376.1. Reconciling requirements and risks by combining simulation and optimization 1386.1.1. Conducting a cascading arbitration and selection process 1386.1.2. Adjusting inconsistent interventions by adapting them to constraint 1396.1.3. Developing a robust trade-off in a reasonably uncertain future 1416.1.4. Guarding cautiously against contingencies and any eventuality 1446.1.5. Changing the conditions to modify or transform the intervention 1496.2. Interpreting optimized solutions to support the decision 1506.2.1. Visualizing the results in a triptych of dashboards 1506.2.2. Revealing performance levels for the objectives-criteria 1526.2.3. Describing the composition of the options and exploiting the room for maneuver 1546.2.4. Identifying saturation and estimating the pressure of constraints 1566.2.5. Detecting and estimating the value of proactive deposits 159Part 3. Acting and Intervening: Judiciously Guiding Action to Generate a Virtuous Dynamic 161Chapter 7. Identifying Predispositions to Act and Generating Compromises 1637.1. Deciphering the power relationships and power factors of the actors 1647.1.1. Schematizing the conceptual approach and introducing key concepts 1657.1.2. Determining the power effect (or leverage) 1707.1.3. Conducting a structural analysis of the actors in terms of their strengths or powers 1727.1.4. Interpreting the power relationships according to the stature and posture of the actors 1747.2. Extending the analytical framework to a metasystem incorporating actors and objectives 1807.2.1. Globalizing the existence of each actor on the basis of their relations to the subsystem of factors and objectives 1817.2.2. Aggregating the existence of each objective based on its relationship to the two subsystems of objectives and actors: visible and/or hidden preponderance and prevalence 1837.2.3. Extending the relational existence of each actor by adding successive dimensions 1837.2.4. Measuring the overall coherence and the capacity for relational convergence of the metasystem 1857.3. Interpreting the dialectic of transformation of the interplay between actors 1867.3.1. Diagnosing dynamic power accesses 1877.3.2. Interpreting the dialectic of power access regimes 191Chapter 8. Breathing Lasting Vitality into the Long Term 1978.1. A gradual movement towards a good start 1998.1.1. Mobilizing a triad of key skills to guide action 2008.1.2. Bringing together the three dimensions of performance evaluation: finality, pluralism with regard to the future, and pragmatism 2018.1.3. Driving and animating wise actions: a conceptual insight 2048.1.4. Promoting a dizzying rise towards beneficial action 2098.2. Working for sustainable viability, generating vitality 2128.2.1. Gaining directivity through continuous monitoring and evaluation of finality: a dialogical spiral between voluntarism and conservatism 2128.2.2. Gaining insight and agility through the permanent regulation of pluralism and pragmatism 2148.2.3. Stimulating the emergence of sustainability through a proven experience of overall performance 2178.3. Ensuring the completion of the vortex elevation 2198.3.1. Gaining access to prosperity, sustainability, and vivacity as completion of directivity, perspicacity, and agility 2208.3.2. Tending towards vitality as a sublimation of viability and a complement to prosperity, sustainability, and vivacity 220Chapter 9. Forging a Guidance System and Deploying Skills 2239.1. Reinvigorating practices of anticipation 2259.1.1. Differentiating and making normative approaches more flexible 2259.1.2. Comparing and enriching the results at the different stages of the process 2269.1.3. Committing to reinvigorating the process of forward thinking or strategic planning 2299.2. Making the process more fluid and sustainable through deployment plans and projects 2349.2.1. Considering the main structures involved 2349.2.2. Strengthening institutional anchoring and organizational learning 2349.2.3. Preserving the logic and prerogatives of the preceding parts 2359.2.4. Opting for a strengthened approach capable of percolating through the organization 2369.2.5. The case of a project to strengthen technical-institutional capacities in strategic foresight 2379.3. Practicing, integrating, and appropriating the strategic engineering approach 2409.3.1. Thinking of organization and action as holomorphic 2409.3.2. Organizing conferences, specific training courses, or on-site strategic engineering projects in a modular manner 2429.3.3. Promoting and developing advanced strategic engineering instruments 247Conclusion 249Postface 251Glossary 255References 265Index 273

Select Guide Rating