Futures

Carine Dartiguepeyrou is a political scientist and independent futurist, who is currently collaborating with the Department of Foresight at the Université Catholique de Lille, France.Michel Saloff-Coste is the Director of Foresight at the Université Catholique de Lille, France, and an adviser to public and private organizations.

• Foreword by May East xiForeword by Patrick Scauflaire xiiiAuthor Biographies xviiIntroduction xxvCarine DARTIGUEPEYROU and Michel SALOFF-COSTEPart 1 Epistemological Outlines 1Chapter 1 Foresight and Civilization 3Michel SALOFF-COSTE1.1 An unpredictable but interesting future 31.2 From the melting pot of popular media to the diversity of forward-looking points of view 51.3 Changing civilization, the dynamics of disruptions 51.4 Examples of megatrends structuring the future 71.5 Foresight epistemology and epistemology of foresight 8Chapter 2 Cultures and Trajectories 11Jean-Éric AUBERT2.1 Foundations of civilizations 112.2 The “sinicization” of the world and the exercise of power 142.3 The pressure on the West and the risks of disintegration 162.4 The South and the modernization of societies 172.5 Confrontations and conflicts 182.6 Facing climate change 192.7 Conclusion 21Chapter 3 Forward-Looking Design of Evolution 23Francis JUTAND3.1 The search to answer questions about the future 243.2 Foresight as the design of human society 253.3 History 263.4 The dynamics of collective forces 283.5 The spiritual questioning 293.6 The active imagination of the future 30Part 2 Foresight at the Service of Action 33Chapter 4 A European Perspective on Foresight 35Laurent BONTOUX4.1 Understanding foresight applied to European policies 354.2 Foresight for European policies in practice 374.2.1 Context 374.2.2 Methods 394.2.3 A 2040 vision for the customs union 424.2.4 Reference scenarios for long-term strategic thinking 444.2.5 Foresight for better regulation 454.2.6 Short formats to engage decision-makers 454.3 How can “good” foresight be achieved? 464.4 Conclusion 46Chapter 5 Foresight in Order to Act Ethically 49Carine DARTIGUEPEYROU5.1 Analyzing megatrends to question the future 495.2 Defining possible bifurcations and disruptions in order to accelerate transitions 525.3 Acting on socio-economic trajectories in order to make choices 565.4 Conclusion 58Chapter 6 Foresight at the Service of Innovation 59Nathalie POPIOLEK6.1 The art of deciding in an uncertain world 606.1.1 The essence and role of foresight 606.1.2 A holistic and operational approach 616.2 Innovation strategy in companies in the context of transition 636.2.1 The new industrial and societal situation 646.2.2 The different innovation strategies 656.3 Foresight and support for innovation in companies 676.3.1 Analysis of the innovative ecosystem 676.3.2 Consequences of the innovative investment 686.3.3 Foresight approach and radical innovation 696.4 Conclusion 70Chapter 7 Acting and Evaluating through Values in the Long Term 73Valérie KAUFFMANN7.1 The question of foresight applied to territories 737.2 Initiating change with action research 747.2.1 Better understanding of the issues at work 747.2.2 From the initiation of the project to the collective construction process 757.2.3 Getting to grips with the subject: integrating biodiversity? Field surveys 757.3 The need for dialogue: the values approach 767.3.1 The value approach to biodiversity 777.3.2 The compass, a tool for territorial strategy through the means of values 777.3.3 Entry through values: deciphering 787.4 From principles to proposals and means of action 797.4.1 Biodiversity as a common good 797.4.2 The ethics of dialogue 807.4.3 Acting over time 807.4.4 Individual and collective responsibilities 817.4.5 Towards a compass for territorial foresight 81Part 3 Scenarios for the Future 83Chapter 8 Changing the Thinking Mode 85Zhouying JIN8.1 The challenges facing human beings in the 21st century 858.2 Deep concern over the direction of human evolution as well as technological development 878.2.1 Concerns about the direction of human evolution 878.2.2 The imminent disaster facing science and technology 878.2.3 Are human beings ready for the negative impact of technological innovation? 888.3 The crisis of so-called human–machine civilization driven by the theory of scientific and technological omnipotence 898.3.1 An ideal outcome 898.3.2 A tragic outcome 908.3.3 Five “Wars” among three categories of species 918.4 A new understanding of technology 928.4.1 Soft technology that has been neglected for a long time 928.4.2 Soft technology, another paradigm of technology 928.4.3 Human beings must regulate technology 938.4.4 It is not enough just to regulate and control 948.5 What kind of civilization should human beings pursue? 958.5.1 The essence of Industrial Civilization 958.5.2 Exploring the future evolution of humanity from social-humanity perspectives – the sublimation and perfection of human nature 958.5.3 Global Civilization 968.6 The difficult task of creating a “Global Civilization” 978.7 Beyond Global Civilization – paradigm shift: from Global civilization to Great Civilization 978.7.1 Human beings should pursue a higher level of civilization than Global Civilization – Great Civilization 978.7.2 The significance of Great Civilization 988.8 Can humans eventually create a Great Civilization? 988.9 Sustainable development – paradigm shift of human survival and development 998.10 Changing the thinking mode is the key for paradigm shift 100Chapter 9 Foresight Shock, Facing the Inevitable Impact of the Climate Crisis 103Herman GYR and Lisa FRIEDMAN9.1 Looking back to look forward 1059.2 When foresight becomes shocking: tipping points 1079.3 The race is on 1089.4 A profound leadership moment 1099.5 From foresight shock to climate action 1099.6 The emergence of the regenerative era 1109.7 Positive signals of the emerging regenerative era 1129.8 From foresight shock to mobilizing action at scale: leadership practices 1139.9 Three leadership practices for building the regenerative era 1139.9.1 Visionary strategic leadership: from signals to strategy 1159.9.2 Innovation leadership: from strategy to impact 1179.9.3 Emotional leadership 118Chapter 10 Post-Covid-19 Governance: Two Scenarios 123Marc LUYCKX GHISI10.1 Our approach to foresight 12310.2 The shock strategy 12410.2.1 The possibility of a major economic crisis in the near future 12410.2.2 The two possible scenarios 12710.3 Conclusion 133Postface 135Pierre GIORGINIReferences 145List of Authors 161Index 163