Exponential Era

DAVID ESPINDOLA is a Partner at Intercepting Horizons and an Advisory Board member of the Technological Leadership Institute at the University of Minnesota. As a former Chief Information Officer and consulting leader, he has developed global technology strategies and successfully implemented business transformation programs.MICHAEL W. WRIGHT is a Partner of Intercepting Horizons and the author of the acclaimed New Business Normal, a former C-suite global high-tech executive at scale and an active board member. He is a University of Minnesota Sr. Fellow, Chairman Emeritus of the Advisory Board for the UMN Technological Leadership Institute, and formerly an adjunct professor at Carlson School of Management where he taught strategic leadership.

• About the Authors xvAcknowledgments xviiForeword xixIntroduction 1The Threat of Being Amazoned and Uberized 2Elephants Dancing to a Faster Tempo 4Where Is My Crystal Ball? 4Trillion-Dollar Platforms 6Changing Wheels While the Car Is Running 7Dealing with Chaos 8Uncertainty Must Be Managed 8The Premise Behind SPX 9How This Book Is Organized 11Section One 15Chapter 1 The New Context for Our Future 17The Future Is Not Your Brain’s Priority 18Exponentials Make Fools of Humans 19The Phases of Exponential Progression 19The Exponential Explosion 22Moore’s Law: The Observation that Changed the World 24Chapter 2 Exponential Platforms: Convergences and Megatrends 27Megatrends 29Hyper Global Connectivity 29A Longer and Healthier Life 30Augmented and Virtual Worlds 31Abundance 32Upgraded Transportation 33Instant Personalization 34Digitization of Work 34Automated Shopping 35Radical Interfaces 36Sustainable Environment 36Exponential Platforms 37Artificial Intelligence 37Networks and Blockchain 41Biotechnology 43Quantum Computing 44Internet of Things 443D Printing 45Robotics 46Material Science 47Chapter 3 Animals of the Exponential Kingdom 49Flash Boiled Frogs 49Nokia 50Blockbuster 51DisruptiveUnicorns 52Airbnb 52ByteDance 53Fast and Furious Gazelles 55Uber 55Netflix 56Dancing Elephants 58IBM 59Microsoft 60Dominating Gorillas 61Google 61Amazon 62Section Two 65Chapter 4 Introducing SPX: Strategic Planning for the Exponential Era 67Convergence Research and Strategic Planning 68The Manifesto that Changed How Software Is Built 69Iterative Experiments in a Feedback Loop 71Thinking Like a Designer 72Getting Inside the Opponent’s Head with OODA 73A New Approach to Strategic Planning 74Traditional Strategic Planning versus SPX 75Chapter 5 Detecting Early Signals 79If It Is Obvious to Everyone, It Has No Value 80Research and Observation 83Removing Barriers to Information Flow 84Access Is the Name of the Game 86Dealing with Uncertainty 87Conducting Research 88Predictive Analytics 90Timing Analysis 92Chapter 6 Learning from Experiments 95Divergence and Convergence 96Starting with Divergence 97Moving into Convergence 99Short Experiments 101Risks and Opportunities Identification 104Embracing Chaos and Bad News 105Chapter 7 Capabilities – The Essential Fuel to Ride the Exponential Curve 107Determine Capabilities 108People 109Process 112Technology 115Market 116Capital 119Develop Risk–Opportunity–Capability Map 120Develop Priority List 122Chapter 8 Feedback-Based Strategic Decisions 125Determine Scale and Scope 127Explore Highest Priorities 130Gather Data and Feedback 132Scale or Terminate Initiatives 134Chapter 9 Leading a Culture of Change 137Exploration versus Exploitation – the Innovator’s Dilemma 139Amplifying Flow Through the Organization 141Mobilizing the Organization Through an Inflection Point 142Knowing When to Quit 143Executive Engagement 145Culture and Behaviors 147Judgment 148Curiosity 148Innovation 148Integrity 149Section Three 151Chapter 10 The Exponential Human – Social and Ethical Challenges in a Chaotic World 153The Workless Society 154                                                           Education Reinvented 156Global Synchronous Communications 159New Ethics for a New Era 161For My Children 163A Discussion About The Use of The Term Exponential 165Notes and References 167Index 175