David Lagnado is Professor of Cognitive and Decision Sciences in the Department of Experimental Psychology, UCL. He has written over 100 articles and co-authored a textbook on the psychology of decision making. He has worked with US intelligence, the UK government and various legal and financial institutions, looking at methods to improve reasoning and decision making.

• 1. The Cliff Death; 2. Models in Mind; 3. Causal Modelling; 4. Thinking Beyond Biases; 5. Expert Reasoning in Crime Investigation; 6. Questions of Evidence; 7. Competing Causes; 8. Confirmation Bias: Good, Bad and Ugly; 9. Telling Stories; 10. Idioms for Legal Reasoning; 11. Causal Reasoning in a Time of Crisis; References.

'This book is fun to read and easy to understand. It teaches us how we evaluate evidence and how we can evaluate it better. Ordinary people, without scientific training, on a jury or a city council or considering a big move to a new job can deploy these causal modelling techniques to manage evidence effectively.' Nancy Cartwright, Professor of Philosophy, Durham University, UK

David Lagnado is Professor of Cognitive and Decision Sciences in the Department of Experimental Psychology, UCL. He has written over 100 articles and co-authored a textbook on the psychology of decision making. He has worked with US intelligence, the UK government and various legal and financial institutions, looking at methods to improve reasoning and decision making.

• 1. The Cliff Death; 2. Models in Mind; 3. Causal Modelling; 4. Thinking Beyond Biases; 5. Expert Reasoning in Crime Investigation; 6. Questions of Evidence; 7. Competing Causes; 8. Confirmation Bias: Good, Bad and Ugly; 9. Telling Stories; 10. Idioms for Legal Reasoning; 11. Causal Reasoning in a Time of Crisis; References.

'This book is fun to read and easy to understand. It teaches us how we evaluate evidence and how we can evaluate it better. Ordinary people, without scientific training, on a jury or a city council or considering a big move to a new job can deploy these causal modelling techniques to manage evidence effectively.' Nancy Cartwright, Professor of Philosophy, Durham University, UK

David Lagnado is Professor of Cognitive and Decision Sciences in the Department of Experimental Psychology, UCL. He has written over 100 articles and co-authored a textbook on the psychology of decision making. He has worked with US intelligence, the UK government and various legal and financial institutions, looking at methods to improve reasoning and decision making.

• 1. The Cliff Death; 2. Models in Mind; 3. Causal Modelling; 4. Thinking Beyond Biases; 5. Expert Reasoning in Crime Investigation; 6. Questions of Evidence; 7. Competing Causes; 8. Confirmation Bias: Good, Bad and Ugly; 9. Telling Stories; 10. Idioms for Legal Reasoning; 11. Causal Reasoning in a Time of Crisis; References.

'This book is fun to read and easy to understand. It teaches us how we evaluate evidence and how we can evaluate it better. Ordinary people, without scientific training, on a jury or a city council or considering a big move to a new job can deploy these causal modelling techniques to manage evidence effectively.' Nancy Cartwright, Professor of Philosophy, Durham University, UK