Experts, Social Scientists, and Techniques of Prognosis in Cold War America

Christian Dayé is Research Fellow at the Science, Technology and Society (STS) Unit of Graz University of Technology, Austria.

• 1. Introduction: A Culture of Insecurity and its Experts.- 2. Experts, Think Tanks, and the Delicate Balance of Public Trust. - 3. The Wisdom of the Group: RAND's First Experiments with Expert Prediction, 1947-1951.- 4. Negotiating Rules for the Game: Political Games at RAND, 1954-1956.- 5. The Oracle's Epistemology: Expert Opinions as Scientific Material.- 6.The Boredom of the Crowd: The Long-Range Forecasting Delphi, 1963-1964.- 7. Conclusion: The Strength of Epistemic Hopes.

“In the future, historians of social science would be wise to follow Dayé's recommendation to focus more of their work on explicating the historical embeddedness of research methods and techniques. Doing so will not only help us understand the latter on their own terms, but will also provide insight into the important role epistemology plays in shaping Americans' approach to the world.” (Daniel Bessner, Journal of the History of the Behavioral Sciences, July 23, 2021)