Exchange Rate Economics

Ronald MacDonald, Adam Smith Professor of Political Economy, University of Glasgow, UK

• Contents:Introduction PART I: MONETARY FUNDAMENTALS AND EXCHANGE RATE FORECASTING1. ‘Exchange Rate Behaviour: Are Fundamentals Important?’ Economic Journal, 109 (459), 1999, F673–F6912. ‘The Monetary Model of the Exchange Rate: Long-run Relationships, Short-run Dynamics and How to Beat a Random Walk’, with M.P. Taylor, Journal of International Money and Finance, 13 (3), 1994, 276–903. ‘On Fundamentals and Exchange Rates: A Casselian Perspective’, with I.W. Marsh, Review of Economics and Statistics, 79 (4), 1997, 655–644. ‘Monetary-based Models of the Exchange Rate: A Panel Perspective’, with S. Husted, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 8 (1), 1998, 1–195. ‘Modeling the ECU Against the U.S. Dollar: A Structural Monetary Interpretation’, with L. La Cour, Journal of Business Economics and Statistics, 18 (4), 2000, 436–506. ‘Currency Spillovers and Tri-polarity: A Simultaneous Model of the US Dollar, German Mark and Japanese Yen’, with I.W. Marsh, Journal of International Money and Finance, 23 (1), 2004, 99–1117. ‘Markov Switching Regimes in a Monetary Exchange Rate Model’, with M. Frömmel and L. Menkhoff, Economic Modelling, 22 (3), 2005, 485–502PART II: EQUILIBRIUM EXCHANGE RATES: PURCHASING POWER PARITY AND THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE8. ‘Long-run Purchasing Power Parity: Is it for Real?’, Review of Economics and Statistics, 75 (4), 1993, 690–959. ‘Panel Unit Root Tests and Real Exchange Rates’, Economics Letters, 50 (1), 1996, 7–1110. ‘International Parity Relationships Between the USA and Japan’, with K. Juselius, Japan and the World Economy, 16 (1), 2004, 17–3411. ‘Filtering the BEER: A Permanent and Transitory Decomposition’, with P.B. Clark, Global Finance Journal, 15 (1), 2004, 29–5612. ‘The Real Exchange Rate and the Balassa–Samuel Effect: The Role of the Distributional Sector’, with L.A. Ricci, Pacific Economic Review, 10 (1) 2005, 29–4813. ‘Real Exchange Rates, Imperfect Substitutability, and Imperfect Competition’, with L.A. Ricci, Journal of Macroeconomics, 29 (4) 2007, 639–64PART III: EXPECTATIONS FORMATION, NEWS AND RISK14. ‘£M3 Surprises and Asset Prices’, with T.S. Torrance, Economica, 54 (216), 1987, 505–1515. ‘Expectations Formation and Risk in Four Foreign Exchange Markets’ with T.S. Torrance, Oxford Economic Papers, 42 (3), 1990, 544–6116. ‘Combining Exchange Rate Forecasts: What is the Optimal Consensus Measure?’ with I.W. Marsh, Journal of Forecasting, 13, 1994, 313–3217. ‘Currency Forecasters are Heterogeneous: Confirmation and Consequences’, with I.W. Marsh, Journal of International Money and Finance, 15 (5) 1996, 665–8518. ‘Models of Exchange Rate Expectations: How Much Heterogeneity?’, with A. Bénassy-Quéré and S. Larribeau, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 13 (2) 2003, 113–36PART IV: THE ECONOMICS OF FIXED EXCHANGE RATES AND CREDIBILITY ISSUES19. ‘On the Mean-reverting Properties of Target Zone Exchange Rates: Some Evidence from the ERM’, with M. Anthony, European Economic Review, 42 (8) 1998, 1493–52320. ‘Crash! Expectational Aspects of the Departures of the United Kingdom and the United States from the Inter-war Gold Standard’, with C.P. Hallwood and I.W. Marsh, Explorations in Economic History, 34 (2) 1997, 174–9421. ‘Realignment Expectations and the US Dollar, 1890–1897: Was There a “Peso Problem”?’ with C.P. Hallwood and I.W. Marsh, Journal of Monetary Economics, 46 (3) 2000, 605–2022. ‘Interest Rate Interactions in the Classical Gold Standard, 1880–1914: Was There Any Monetary Independence?’, with M.D. Bordo, Journal of Monetary Economics, 52 (2) 2005, 307–27