Evaluation in the Face of Uncertainty

Jonathan A. Morell is Director of Evaluation at The Fulcrum Corporation and Editor of Evaluation and Program Planning. Formerly he was Senior Policy Analyst at the Vector Research Center, a division of Jacobs Engineering. He is active in the American Evaluation Association (AEA), where he has been instrumental in founding two topical interest groups: Systems, and Business and Industry. He is a recipient of the Marcus Ingle Distinguished Service Award and the Paul F. Lazarsfeld Evaluation Theory Award from the AEA. His professional life has integrated his role as an evaluation practitioner with his theoretical interests. As a practitioner, he evaluates organizational change, R&D, and safety programs. He is also deeply involved in organizational design. His theoretical interests include the nature and use of logic models, the role of Lean Six Sigma methodologies in evaluation, complex system behavior, and the nature of practical action. He maintains a blog on issues related to evaluation and evaluation surprises.Â

• 1. From Firefighting to Systematic Action Adding Surprise to the Mix Historical Roots: Evaluation, Planning, and System Behavior From Explaining Surprise to Dealing with It Development Path of This Book Guiding Principles How to Read This Book In Sum 2. Structure of the Unexpected Where Does Surprise Come From? Beyond Simple Distinctions In Sum 3. Placing Surprise in the Evaluation Landscape When Is the Probability of Surprise High? When Is Surprise Disruptive to Evaluation? In Sum 4. Minimizing Foreseeable Surprise Theory: Using Explanatory Power and Simplified Relationships Exploiting Past Experience: Capitalizing on What We Already Know Limiting Time Frames to Minimize the Opportunity for Surprise In Sum 5. Shifting from Advance Planning to Early Detection Leading Indicators System-Based Logic Modeling In Sum 6. Agile Evaluation Data Agile Methodology Retooling Program Theory Agility and Stakeholder Needs In Sum 7. How Much Is Too Much? Appreciating Trade-Offs and Managing the Balance A Framework for Appreciating Design Trade-Offs Maximizing Choice, Minimizing Risk Evaluation Design In Sum 8. Applying the Examples to Categories of Cases: The Life Cycle View Unintended Consequences: Unity across Programs and Their Evaluations Interpreting Cases through a Life Cycle Perspective In Sum 9. Applying the Examples to Categories of Cases: The Social/Organizational View Navigating through the Cases Placement of Cases on the Social/Organizational Map Categorizations Derived from the Data In Sum 10. Lessons from Individual Cases: Tactics for Anticipating Surprise 11 Lessons from Individual Cases: Responding to Surprise 12. Unanticipated Program Outcomes 13. Concluding Thoughts CASES 1-18.

"This clearly written, well-organized book presents a lexicon of the surprises that occur in evaluation practice, both in the program--how it unfolds between planning and completion of the evaluation--and in the process of data collection and analysis. Morell outlines a structure for understanding what these surprises are, where they occur in the programming and evaluation process, why they are inevitable, and how they can (or sometimes cannot) be foreseen. The book provides practitioners with a systematic way of diagnosing and possibly even anticipating surprises, and explains how to accommodate them."--Deborah Wasserman, PhD, Principal Consultant, PERSolutions: Program Evaluation and Research, Columbus, Ohio"If your world, including your evaluation work, is often complex, uncertain, and unpredictable, you have a fellow traveler and real-world guide in Morell. He applies more than three decades of experience to the challenges of distinguishing what can and cannot be foreseen, anticipating the unexpected, and dealing with the unforeseeable. This book draws on concrete cases, expert wisdom, practitioner experiences, scholarly knowledge, and organizational theory to explore evaluation approaches and methods that are agile, flexible, emergent, and responsive. Morell's voice is personable, his guidance realistic, and his insights important. You'll be surprised how much better you can get at anticipating and learning from surprises."--Michael Quinn Patton, PhD, Director, Utilization-Focused Evaluation, St. Paul, Minnesota"Morell offers descriptions and prescriptions to help evaluators develop agile methodologies. This book is a valuable addition to available instructional resources for both seasoned practitioners and students just entering the evaluation profession. Writing in an accessible, cogent style, Morell effectively demonstrates how to navigate the challenges of complex systems. The brief cases he presents to illustrate his points will be especially useful for stimulating discussion in graduate classes as well as professional development settings."--Kathryn E. Newcomer, PhD, Director, Trachtenberg School of Public Policy and Public Administration, and Co-Director, Midge Smith Center for Evaluation Effectiveness, The George Washington University"The use of real-life examples with all their warts adds considerably to the usefulness of the book, especially because the examples come from around the world and reflect a wide variety of evaluation contexts."--David L. Streiner, PhD, Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto and Department of Psychiatry and Behavioural Neurosciences, McMaster University"Morell offers an original, plain-spoken, perspicacious, wise discourse on a relatively neglected yet highly significant aspect of evaluation. This is among the first and best full-on analyses of the primary sources of evaluation surprise. The book puts a strong intellectual foundation under proposed remedies. There are gems in almost every chapter, such as the discussion of agile evaluation."--Lois-ellin Datta, PhD, President, Datta Analysis, Waikoloa, Hawaii"This book fills a vastly neglected void in the evaluation literature. Morell provides a theoretical framework for anticipating and minimizing the unexpected by means of agile, responsive evaluation methodologies. He illustrates a variety of pragmatic strategies for dealing with the inevitable (and sometimes unforeseeable) things that can go wrong when planning and executing evaluations. Ironically, the lessons exemplified in the book have great potential for propelling the field forward in both anticipated and unanticipated ways. This is an essential, invaluable resource for any serious student, practitioner, or scholar of evaluation."--Chris L. S. Coryn, PhD, Director, Interdisciplinary PhD in Evaluation, Western Michigan University"Insightful and provocative. Though Morell writes from the stance of an evaluator, his descriptions of 'things that go awry' apply to a wide swath of research methodologies. The idea that all research projects encounter unanticipated or unintended outcomes is aptly illustrated through a variety of case studies--for example, No Child Left Behind evaluation studies, health impacts of central heating, and outcomes of abolishing user fees in health clinics in Niger. The cases provide ample evidence of why things went awry and how unanticipated or unintended outcomes may be predicted and controlled. This book would be ideal for graduate-level courses on research design or program evaluation, either as a textbook or a supplement."--James E. Gruber, PhD, Department of Behavioral Sciences, University of Michigan-Dearborn-Will help evaluators seeking to avoid the pitfalls of complicated and complex situations and evaluations. The book provides evaluation planning advice that can prevent or mitigate the most common and preventable kinds of evaluation surprises.--American Journal of Evaluation, 5/28/2013ƒƒThe book provides a useful presentation of the tactics that can be implemented to prevent surprises from weakening an evaluation plan....Aside from the more theoretical discussion provided by Morell, the book presents and makes extensive use of 18 cases drawn from all experiences of practicing evaluators around the world....These cases...would make excellent teaching examples for newer evaluators: not only will they feel as though they are not alone in encountering unanticipated situations in their work, but they will learn important lessons from the experience of others....Meets a very real need and undoubtedly advances out thinking about the issue of surprise in evaluation....Morell provides good, practical advice on dealing with unanticipated events throughout the text, based on his own experiences and those of the evaluators who provided the cases for the book. The key insights found in the book will surely enable evaluators to better plan their work, identify surprises before they crop up, and, in the end, enable them to produce higher-quality evaluations.--Canadian Journal of Program Evaluation, 5/28/2013