Evaluating Japan’s New Grand Strategy

Robert Ward is the IISS Japan Chair, carrying out independent research and writing extensively on strategic issues related to Japan, including its contemporary security and foreign policies. He is also Director of Geo-economics and Strategy and leads the Institute’s work on a range of issues including global economic governance, rules and standards setting, and how economic coercion impacts policy at a national and corporate level. He is co-author of Japan’s Effectiveness as a Geo-Economic Actor: Navigating Great-Power Competition (Routledge, 2022) and co-editor of Japan and the IISS: Connecting Western and Japanese Strategic Thought from the Cold War to the War on Ukraine (Routledge, 2023). Prior to joining the IISS, Ward spent 23 years at the Economist Group, latterly leading the country and industry research teams at the Economist Intelligence Unit. He lived and worked in Japan from 1989 to 1996 and is a fluent speaker of Japanese. He holds bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Cambridge University.

• Introduction· A grand-strategic watershed· The catalysts for change· Testing Japanese resilience‘Hardware’ and ‘software’Chapter One: Japan’s shifting strategic compass· Maritime Japan· Four strategic phases· A triangle and triangulationChapter Two: Building Japanese deterrence and response capabilities – defence and diplomacy· Changing defence assumptions· Japan’s strategic shift to the Southwest Islands· Building defence and defence-industrial resilience· Cyber, intelligence and space· Defence diplomacy – networking deterrenceChapter Three: New tools of Japanese security· Japan’s ‘comprehensive national power’· Japan’s evolving geo-economic power· Economic security – increasing Japanese geo-economic agency· Economic security and industrial policyChapter Four: Structural impediments· Japan acquires its strategic ‘rheostat’· Demographic and fiscal headwinds· Societal changeConclusion· Structural change in Japan· Japan’s capacity to deliver

‘Robert Ward shines a brilliant light on the transformation seen in Japan’s grand strategy during the past 15 years, placing it in its historical context but crucially also illuminating how Japanese society has come to understand the threat to the country’s security posed by North Korea, Russia and above all China. Delivering the new grand strategy will not be easy, but this book shows that it can be done and that it has strong winds behind it.’Bill Emmott, Chairman of the Trustees, IISS and author of Deterrence, Diplomacy and the Risk of Conflict Over Taiwan‘This book offers a compelling, balanced and insightful exploration of the evolution of Japan’s foreign policy, tracing its trajectory from the Meiji Restoration to the present day while prompting readers to contemplate its future direction. It presents a persuasive analysis of how Japan’s strategic choices have shaped the global order – spanning security, economics and technology. This volume is indispensable not only for Japan specialists and security experts but also for policymakers, scholars, business leaders and students – indeed, for anyone seeking to grasp the profound geopolitical shifts unfolding across the region.’Doden Aiko, former NHK commentator; Journalist/Distinguished Senior Fellow, Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies, SAIS, Johns Hopkins University; Japan Foundation Indo-Pacific Partnership Program Fellow‘Robert Ward’s insightful book offers profound insights into the logic and principles underpinning Japan’s grand strategy, providing a roadmap to stability in today’s complex and rapidly changing international environment. This essential read compellingly describes Japan’s strategic evolution from the Yoshida Doctrine to Abe Shinzo’s transformative approach and beyond, signifying its transition from a postwar strategy focused on stability and strong US relations to playing a more autonomous and proactive role on the world stage. As the book illustrates, Japan’s increased participation in global affairs could serve as a beacon of stability amid the uncertainties in US–Japan relations and the waning of US leadership in an era marked by turbulence under the second Trump administration. Ward explores Japan’s dynamic engagement and swift advances in previously uncharted territories such as defence strategy and diplomacy, and cyber and space technologies. The book also examines Japan’s leadership in economic security, highlighting its strategic efforts to reinforce supply chains and assert itself as a geo-economic power through initiatives like the CPTPP and strategic industrial policies.’Suzuki Kazuto, Professor of Science and Technology Policy, Graduate School of Public Policy, University of Tokyo