Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and professor of political science at the University of Rochester. He is also author of The War Trap and co-author of War and Reason: A Confrontation Between Domestic and International Imperatives and Forecasting Political Events: The Future of Hong Kong, all published by Yale University Press. Frans N. Stokman is professor of sociology at the University of Groningen, The Netherlands.