Empirical Dynamic Asset Pricing

Kenneth J. Singleton is Adams Distinguished Professor of Management and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Affairs at the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University. A Fellow of the Econometric Society, he is the recipient of the organization's Frisch Prize. He is also the recipient of the Smith-Breeden Distinguished Paper Award from the "Journal of Finance". Singleton is a director of the American Finance Association and was previously an editor of the "Review of Financial Studies". He is coauthor, with Darrell Duffie, of "Credit Risk: Pricing, Management, and Measurement" (Princeton).

• Preface xi Acknowledgments xiii Chapter 1: Introduction 1 1.1. Model Implied Restrictions 3 1.2. Econometric Estimation Strategies 10 Part I: Econometric Methods for Analyzing DAPMs 15 Chapter 2: Model Specification and Estimation Strategies 17 2.1. Full Information about Distributions 17 2.2. No Information about the Distribution 21 2.3. Limited Information: GMM Estimators 25 2.4. Summary of Estimators 34 Chapter 3: Large-Sample Properties of Extremum Estimators 35 3.1. Basic Probability Model 35 3.2. Consistency: General Considerations 39 3.3. Consistency of Extremum Estimators 44 3.4. Asymptotic Normality of Extremum Estimators 48 3.5. Distributions of Specific Estimators 53 3.6. Relative Efficiency of Estimators 60 Chapter 4: Goodness-of-Fit and Hypothesis Testing 71 4.1. GMM Tests of Goodness-of-Fit 71 4.2. Testing Restrictions on ? 0 77 4.3. Comparing LR, Wald, and LM Tests 84 4.4. Inference for Sequential Estimators 86 4.5. Inference with Unequal-Length Samples 88 4.6. Underidentified Parameters under H 0 94 Chapter 5: Affine Processes 98 5.1. Affine Processes: Overview 100 5.2. Continuous-Time Affine Processes 101 5.3. Discrete-Time Affine Processes 108 5.4. Transforms for Affine Processes 114 5.5. GMM Estimation of Affine Processes 117 5.6. ML Estimation of Affine Processes 118 5.7. Characteristic Function-Based Estimators 124 Chapter 6: Simulation-Based Estimators of DAPMs 130 6.1. Introduction 130 6.2. SME: The Estimation Problem 132 6.3. Consistency of the SME 135 6.4. Asymptotic Normality of the SME 142 6.5. Extensions of the SME 144 6.6. Moment Selection with SME 146 6.7. Applications of SME to Diffusion Models 152 6.8. Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation 153 Chapter 7: Stochastic Volatility, Jumps, and Asset Returns 158 7.1. Preliminary Observations about Shape 159 7.2. Discrete-Time Models 164 7.3. Estimation of Discrete-Time Models 171 7.4. Continuous-Time Models 174 7.5. Estimation of Continuous-Time Models 179 7.6. Volatility Scaling 185 7.7. Term Structures of Conditional Skewness and Kurtosis 187 Part II: Pricing Kernels, Preferences, and DAPMs 193 Chapter 8: Pricing Kernels and DAPMs 195 8.1. Pricing Kernels 195 8.2. Marginal Rates of Substitution as q *198 8.3. No-Arbitrage and Risk-Neutral Pricing 202 Chapter 9: Linear Asset Pricing Models 211 9.1. Economic Motivations for Examining Asset Return Predictability 211 9.2. Market Microstructure Effects 214 9.3. A Digression on Unit Roots in Time Series 219 9.4. Tests for Serial Correlation in Returns 224 9.5. Evidence on Stock-Return Predictability 231 9.6. Time-Varying Expected Returns on Bonds 237 Chapter 10: Consumption-Based DAPMs 246 10.1. Empirical Challenges Facing DAPMs 247 10.2. Assessing Goodness-of-Fit 251 10.3. Time-Separable Single-Good Models 254 10.4. Models with Durable Goods 260 10.5. Habit Formation 265 10.6. Non-State-Separable Preferences 274 10.7. Other Preference-Based Models 276 10.8. Bounds on the Volatility of m nt 277 Chapter 11: Pricing Kernels and Factor Models 282 11.1. A Single-Beta Representation of Returns 283 11.2. Beta Representations of Excess Returns 285 11.3. Conditioning Down and Beta Relations 287 11.4. From Pricing Kernels to Factor Models 290 11.5. Methods for Testing Beta Models 297 11.6. Empirical Analyses of Factor Models 302 Part III: No-Arbitrage DAPMs 309 Chapter 12: Models of the Term Structure of Bond Yields 311 12.1. Key Ingredients of a DTSM 312 12.2. Affine Term Structure Models 316 12.3. Continuous-Time Affine DTSMs 317 12.4. Discrete-Time Affine DSTMs 327 12.5. Quadratic-Gaussian Models 329 12.6. NonAffine Stochastic Volatility Models 331 12.7. Bond Pricing with Jumps 332 12.8. DTSMs with Regime Shifts 334 Chapter 13: Empirical Analyses of Dynamic Term Structure Models 338 13.1. Estimation of DTSMs 338 13.2. Empirical Challenges for DTSMs 344 13.3. DTSMs of Swap and Treasury Yields 348 13.4. Factor Interpretations in Affine DTSMs 356 13.5. Macroeconomic Factors and DTSMs 359 Chapter 14: Term Structures of Corporate Bond Spreads 364 14.1. DTSMs of Defaultable Bonds 364 14.2. Parametric Reduced-Form Models 369 14.3. Parametric Structural Models 371 14.4. Empirical Studies of Corporate Bonds 373 14.5. Modeling Interest Rate Swap Spreads 383 14.6. Pricing Credit Default Swaps 384 14.7. Is Default Risk Priced? 387 Chapter 15: Equity Option Pricing Models 391 15.1. No-Arbitrage Option Pricing Models 392 15.2. Option Pricing 396 15.3. Estimation of Option Pricing Models 397 15.4. Econometric Analysis of Option Prices 401 15.5. Options and Revealed Preferences 404 15.6. Options on Individual Common Stocks 410 Chapter 16: Pricing Fixed-Income Derivatives 412 16.1. Pricing with Affine DTSMs 413 16.2. Pricing Using Forward-Rate Models 417 16.3. Risk Factors and Derivatives Pricing 425 16.4. Affine Models of Derivatives Prices 428 16.5. Forward-Rate-Based Pricing Models 429 16.6. On Model-Basing Hedging 431 16.7. Pricing Eurodollar Futures Options 433 References 435 Index 465

"This book is at the intersection of modern time series and modern asset pricing theory... Ken Singleton gives us the ultimate treatise of empirical asset pricing... [I]t is sure to become a classic work in this field."--Economic Dynamics "This seminal book provides for an in-depth treatment (i) of the various econometric methods used in dynamic asset pricing models, (ii) of pricing kernels, preferences and dynamic asset pricing models and (iii) of no-arbitrage based dynamic asset pricing models. The book contains sixteen chapters and really does provide for much more than an overview of those three broad topics mentioned above."--Emmanuel Haven, Mathematical Reviews "Writing a treatise about empirical asset pricing is as much art as it is science. Professor Singleton intertwines these two dimensions with remarkable skill to provide a critical review of the field... The book accomplishes the goal of great clarity without compromising on the depth of the treatment... The author deserves special praise for encouraging the reader to perceive various compromises involved in financial modeling. The text provides a road map for novices and inspiration for seasoned researchers in the field. As such, it is certain to become a classic of empirical asset pricing."--Anna Cieslak, Financial Markets and Portfolio Management "Writing a treatise about empirical asset pricing is as much art as it is science. Professor Singleton intertwines these two dimensions with remarkable skill to provide a critical review of the field. As such Empirical Dynamic Asset Pricing extends far beyond a textbook treatment of the subject. It gives the reader a unique opportunity to look at dynamic asset pricing models through the eyes of a researcher who has shaped their development during 25 years of his influential work."--Anna Cieslak, Financial Markets and Portfolio Management