DR. CHANAN SINGH is a Regents Professor and Irma Runyon Chair Professor of Electrical & Computer Engineering at Texas A&M University. DR. PANIDA JIRUTITIJAROEN is the head of Corporate Strategy and Business Development for Press Quality Co., Ltd., in Bangkok, Thailand. (Formerly a faculty at the National University of Singapore). DR. JOYDEEP MITRA is a Professor of Electrical Engineering at Michigan State University.

• Preface xiiiAcknowledgments xvFigures xviiTables xxiPart I Concepts and Methods in System Reliability 11 Introduction to Reliability 31.1 Introduction 31.2 Quantitative Reliability 41.3 Basic Approaches for Considering Reliability in Decision-Making 61.4 Objective and Scope of This Book 81.5 Organization of This Book 92 Review of Probability Theory 112.1 Introduction 112.2 State Space and Event 112.3 Probability Measure and Related Rules 162.4 Random Variables 252.5 Jointly Distributed Random Variables 312.6 Expectation, Variance, Covariance and Correlation 322.7 Moment Generating Function 362.8 Functions of Random Variables 39Exercises 513 Review of Stochastic Process 533.1 Introduction 533.2 Discrete-Time Markov Process 573.3 Continuous-Time Markov Process 72Exercises 804 Frequency-Based Approach to Stochastic Process 814.1 Introduction 814.2 Concept of Transition Rate 824.3 Concept of Frequency 834.4 Concept of Frequency Balance 914.5 Equivalent Transition Rate 1004.6 Coherence 1024.7 Conditional Frequency 1044.8 Time-Specific Frequency 1094.9 Probability to Frequency Conversion Rules 110Exercises 1155 Analytical Methods in Reliability Analysis 1175.1 Introduction 1175.2 State Space Approach 1175.3 Network Reduction Method 1395.4 Conditional Probability Method 1475.5 Cut-Set and Tie-Set Methods 152Exercises 1646 Monte Carlo Simulation 1656.1 Introduction 1656.2 Random Number Generation 1666.3 Classification of Monte Carlo Simulation Methods 1676.4 Estimation and Convergence in Sampling 1746.5 Variance Reduction Techniques 178Exercises 182Part II Methods of Power System Reliability Modeling and Analysis 1857 Introduction to Power System Reliability 1877.1 Introduction 1877.2 Scope of Power System Reliability Studies 1877.3 Power System Reliability Indices 1887.4 Considerations in Power System Reliability Evaluation 1908 Generation Adequacy Evaluation Using Discrete Convolution 1938.1 Introduction 1938.2 Generation Model 1938.3 Load Model 2058.4 Generation Reserve Model 2088.5 Determination of Reliability Indices 2108.6 Conclusion 212Exercises 2139 Reliability Analysis of Multinode Power Systems 2159.1 Introduction 2159.2 Scope and Modeling of Multinode Systems 2159.3 System Modeling 2169.4 Power Flow Models and Operating Policies 22210 Reliability Evaluation of Multi-Area Power Systems 22710.1 Introduction 22710.2 Overview of Methods for Multi-Area System Studies 22710.3 The Method of State Space Decomposition 22910.4 Conclusion 245Exercises 24511 Reliability Evaluation of Composite Power Systems 24711.1 Introduction 24711.2 Analytical Methods 24711.3 Monte Carlo Simulation 25011.4 Sequential Simulation 25011.5 Nonsequential Simulation 25411.6 Testing of States 26211.7 Acceleration of Convergence 26311.8 State Space Pruning: Concept and Method 26311.9 Intelligent Search Techniques 26811.10 Conclusion 27212 Power System Reliability Considerations in Energy Planning 27312.1 Introduction 27312.2 Problem Formulation 27512.3 Sample Average Approximation (SAA) 27912.4 Computational Results 28212.5 Conclusion and Discussion 28813 Modeling of Variable Energy Resources 29113.1 Introduction 29113.2 Characteristics of Variable Energy Resources 29213.3 Variable Resource Modeling Approaches 29313.4 Integrating Renewables at the Composite System Level 30114 Concluding Reflections 305Bibliography 309Index 321