Economic Risks of Climate Change

Trevor Houser is a partner at Rhodium Group, a firm that combines policy experience, quantitative economic tools, and on-the-ground research to analyze disruptive global trends. He leads the firm's energy and natural resources work. Solomon Hsiang is the Chancellor's Associate Professor of Public Policy at the University of California, Berkeley, and a Faculty Research Fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Robert Kopp is an associate professor of earth and planetary sciences at Rutgers University and associate director of the Rutgers Energy Institute. Kate Larsen is a director at Rhodium Group and manages the firm's work on U.S. and global climate-change issues.

• Foreword, by Michael R. Bloomberg, Henry M. Paulson Jr., and Thomas F. Steyer Preface Acknowledgments 1. Introduction Part 1. America's Climate Future Opening Commentary, by Michael Oppenheimer 2. What We Know 3. What Comes Next 4. U.S. Climate Projections Part 2. Assessing the Impact of America's Changing Climate Opening Commentary, by Michael Greenstone 5. An Evidence-Based Approach 6. Agriculture 7. Labor 8. Health 9. Crime 10. Energy 11. Coastal Communities Part 3. Pricing Climate Risk Opening Commentary, by Geoffrey Heal 12. From Impacts to Economics 13. Direct Costs and Benefits 14. Macroeconomic Effects 15. Valuing Risk and Inequality Part 4. Unquantified Impacts Opening Commentary, by Nicholas Stern and Bob Ward 16. What We Miss 17. Water 18. Forests 19. Tourism 20. National Security Part 5. Insights for Climate-Risk Management Opening Commentary, by Karen Fisher-Vanden 21. Mitigation 22. Adaptation Technical Appendixes Appendix A. Physical Climate Projections Appendix B. Climate Impacts Appendix C. Detailed Sectoral Models Appendix D. Integrated Economic Analysis Appendix E. Valuing Risk and Unequal Impacts References About the Authors Index

Points the way toward a new era in climate-risk analysis... [T]he authors not only provide a basis for rational judgments by policy makers but also open a new avenue toward progressive improvement in our understanding of risk. -- From the opening commentary by Michael Oppenheimer, Princeton University Solid scholarship shows that we can improve the economy through wise use of our knowledge of climate change and energy. Better quantifying the uncertainties and near-certainties will help guide wise policies. Economic Risks of Climate Change: An American Prospectus is an important step forward. -- Richard Alley, Pennsylvania State University, author of Earth: The Operators' Manual This report has changed my understanding of what climate change means for the United States, providing incredibly detailed visibility into regional changes in climate and their economic consequences to specific sectors. Given its unique ability to touch home for so many, I suspect the study will ultimately be considered a landmark contribution in our understanding of this complex and vital subject. -- From the opening commentary by Michael Greenstone, University of Chicago This report is a careful, very timely and fundamentally important contribution... Its legacy should be continued research to assess and, where possible, quantify those impacts that cannot now be avoided, and which must be adapted to, as well as to gain a better grasp of just how huge the risks of unmanaged climate change are likely to be, even for a superpower. -- From the opening commentary by Lord Nicholas Stern and Bob Ward, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment