Economic and Policy Foundations for Growth in South East Europe

Adam Bennett is a coordinator of the Political Economy programme of South East European Studies at Oxford University, and Deputy Director of the programme on the Political Economy of Financial Markets. He is also an external lecturer at Cardiff University. Previous appointments include Senior Advisor at the International Monetary Fund, and Economic Advisor at H. M. Treasury. His published work has ranged over macroeconomics, monetary economics and post-conflict economics.G. Russell Kincaid is a member of the Academic Steering Committee for the Progamme on the Political Economy of Financial Markets at St. Antony's College, University of Oxford, and a macro-financial consultant. Prior to 2013, he was a Director at the International Monetary Fund where he served for 35 years. He has published on issues related to macroeconomic and financial policies, exchange rate assessments, and sovereign debt management and restructuring. He obtained his Ph. D. in economics from Columbia University.Peter Sanfey is Deputy Director of Country Strategy and Policy at the EBRD. He has a Ph.D. in Economics from Yale University and previously taught at the University of Kent. He has published widely in academic economic journals and is the co-author of a 2010 book (with Christopher Cvii?) on the political and economic reemergence of South East Europe.Max Watson was a Visiting Fellow and Director of the Political Economy of Financial Markets programme at theEuropean Studies Centre, St Antony's College, Oxford, where he also coordinated political-economy work on South East Europe. He was a Fellow of Wolfson College, Oxford, and a Trustee of the Foundation for Law, Justice and Society. He was previously a Deputy Director of the IMF; adviser to the Director-General of Economic and Financial Affairs at the European Commission; a Director of the Central Bank of Ireland; a Director of the consultancy John Howell & Co Ltd; and an adviser at the Bank of England.

• List of Tables and Charts Acknowledgements Introduction 1. Overview of Macroeconomic Developments 2. Structural Reforms is South East Europe Stuck? 3. Fiscal Policy and Fiscal Reform 4. Financial Policy Foundations for Growth in South East Europe 5. Financial Policy Changes on the Horizon Bibliography Index

“The book … provides an invaluable analysis of the transition south-eastern European countries recently experienced from a planned economy system to market economy and the democratic functioning of society. The book is also a useful tool aiming at analyzing the techniques through which a more effective implementation of reforms and practices will lead to the economic growth of these countries. … this book can be of great interest to academics, practitioners and policymakers.” (George Makris, South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Vol. 14, Spring, 2016)"A thoughtful examination of the last quarter century of economic development and reform in a region which has seen the extremes of devastating war and unsustainable boom. The authors aptly use their wealth of experience and analytical skills to chart a path out of the current doldrums." Professor Erik Berglof, Director of the Institute of Global Affairs, London School of Economics, UK"This book represents a brilliant analysis of the state of South East Europe's economy, which includes an overview of every country separately, as well as of the complex regional economic ties. The authors, most of whom during their careers had active roles in the transition process in the region, have used their vast experience and quality information provided by joint workshops with the central banks of the region, including those with the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina. All the quality information, as well as in-depth analysis, shows that this publication has potential to become essential reading for all those who want to understand the economic trends in the region during the past two decades." Dr Kemal Kozari?, Governor of the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina"This timely book allows the interested scholar to understand how an incomplete economic transition and a capital-inflows fuelled boom-bust have contributed to the difficult situation the economies in South East Europe find themselves in today. The authors map out a new growth strategy for the region. Particularly impressive and useful are the institutional details, both at the national and European level, that provide the necessary texture to their analysis and policy recommendations." Bas B. Bakker, IMF Senior Regional Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe, and co-editor of, How Emerging Europe Came through the 2008-09 crisis: An Account by the Staff of the IMF's European Department