Earthquake Statistical Analysis through Multi-state Modeling

Irene Votsi is Assistant Professor of Statistics at the Manceau Laboratory of Mathematics, Le Mans University, France.Nikolaos Limnios is Professor of Applied Mathematics at the University of Technology of Compiègne, Sorbonne University, France.Eleftheria Papadimitriou is Professor of Seismology at the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece.George Tsaklidis is Professor of Probability and Statistics at the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece.

• List of Abbreviations ixList of Symbols xiPreface xvIntroduction xixChapter 1. Fundamentals on Stress Changes 11.1. Introduction 11.2. Stress interaction 41.3. Stress changes calculation 121.4. Modeling of Coulomb stress changes for different faulting types 151.4.1.ΔCS for strike-slip faulting 151.4.2.ΔCS for dip-slip faulting 161.5. Seismicity triggered by stress transfer 211.5.1. Triggering of strong earthquakes 211.5.2. Aftershock triggering 231.5.3. Triggering of mining seismicity 281.6. Discussion on stress interaction 31Chapter 2. Hidden Markov Models 352.1. Introduction 352.2. Hidden Markov framework 372.3. Seismotectonic regime and seismicity data 422.4. Application to earthquake occurrences 442.4.1. Two hidden states and three observation types 452.4.2. Three hidden states and three observation types 482.4.3. Model selection and simulation 502.4.4. Steps number for the first earthquake occurrence 532.5. Conclusion 54Chapter 3. Hidden Markov Renewal Models 573.1. Introduction 573.2. Semi-Markov framework 583.3. Hidden Markov renewal framework 653.4. Modeling earthquakes in Greece 663.4.1. Hitting times and earthquake occurrence numbers 693.5. Conclusion 73Chapter 4. Hitting Time Intensity 754.1. Introduction 754.2. DTIHT for semi-Markov chains 764.2.1. Statistical estimation of the DTIHT 784.3. DTIHT for hidden Markov renewal chains 834.3.1. Statistical estimation of the DTIHT 854.4. Conclusion 87Chapter 5. Models Comparison 895.1. Introduction 895.2. Markov framework 905.2.1. HMM case 925.2.2. HMRM case 925.3. Markov renewal framework 935.3.1. HMM case 955.3.2. HMRM case 965.4. Conclusion 97Discussion & Concluding Remarks 99Appendices 105Appendix 1 107Appendix 2 113Appendix 3 117References 119Index 137