Deterrence under Uncertainty

Edward Geist is a Senior Policy Researcher at the RAND Corporation, where his research interests include Russia (primarily defense policy), civil defense, artificial intelligence, nuclear weapons, and particularly the potential impact of emerging technologies on nuclear strategy. He is the author of Armageddon Insurance: Civil Defense in the United States and Soviet Union, 1945-1991 (University of North Carolina Press, 2019).

• Introduction: Artificial Intelligence and the Nuclear Dilemma The Emerging Strategic Environment From Celluloid Nightmares to Silicon Realities No Place to Hide? Recipe for a WOPR Fog-of-War Machines Strategic Stability in a Deception-Dominant World Conclusion: A Case for (Tempered) Optimism Appendix A: The Mathematics of Tracking Appendix B: A Bayesian Perspective on Camouflage, Concealment, and Deception Appendix C: A Rudimentary Model of Ontological Confrontation Index

Some books are erudite and learned. Some books are entertaining and even funny. Some books offer a whole different perspective on a topic. Some books teach interesting things. Some books are well written. Deterrence Under Uncertainty by Edward Geist is exemplary in each of these categories. It is essential reading for a world awash with conversations about the revolutionary impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on armed conflict.