Deterrence under Uncertainty:

Edward Geist is a Policy Researcher at the RAND Corporation, where his research interests include Russia (primarily defense policy), civil defense, artificial intelligence, nuclear weapons, and particularly the potential impact of emerging technologies on nuclear strategy. He is the author of Armageddon Insurance (University of North Carolina Press, 2019).

• Introduction: Artificial Intelligence and the Nuclear DilemmaThe Emerging Strategic EnvironmentFrom Celluloid Nightmares to Silicon RealitiesNo Place to Hide?Recipe for a WOPRFog-of-War MachinesStrategic Stability in a Deception-Dominant WorldConclusion: A Case for (Tempered) OptimismAppendix A: The Mathematics of TrackingAppendix B: A Bayesian Perspective on Camouflage, Concealment, and DeceptionAppendix C: A Rudimentary Model of Ontological ConfrontationIndex

Geist, steeped in the history and craft of deception as a specialist in defence policy and security, thinks even the smartest agent can be made self destructively stupid by subterfuge. Fakery is so cheap and effective that Geist envisions a future where AI-driven "fog-of-war machines" create a world that favours neither side, but backs "those who seek to confound".