Derisking Race

Aaron L. Friedberg is Professor Emeritus of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, where he taught from 1987 to 2026, and Co-director of the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs’ Center for International Security Studies. He is also a non-resident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and a Senior Advisor to the National Bureau of Asian Research. Friedberg is the author of The Weary Titan: Britain and the Experience of Relative Decline, 1895–1905 (1988), In the Shadow of the Garrison State: America’s Anti-Statism and Its Cold War Grand Strategy (2000), A Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia (2011), The Authoritarian Challenge: China, Russia and the Threat to the Liberal International Order (2017), Partial Disengagement: A New US Strategy for Economic Competition with China (2019) and Getting China Wrong (2022). His previous Adelphi book, Beyond Air–Sea Battle: The Debate Over US Military Strategy in Asia, was published in 2014. He is also the co-editor (with Richard Ellings) of three volumes in the National Bureau of Asian Research’s annual ‘Strategic Asia’ series.In 2001–02 Friedberg was the first occupant of the Henry A. Kissinger Chair in Foreign Policy and International Relations at the Library of Congress. He has been a research fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, the Norwegian Nobel Institute, the Smithsonian Institution’s Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and Harvard University’s Center for International Affairs. Dr Friedberg served from June 2003 to June 2005 as Deputy Assistant for National Security Affairs in the Office of the Vice President. After leaving government he was appointed to the Defense Policy Board and the Secretary of State’s Advisory Committee on Democracy Promotion. Between 2022 and 2026 he served two terms as a congressionally appointed member of the US–China Economic and Security Review Commission. He is a member of the editorial boards of Joint Forces Quarterly and the Journal of Strategic Studies and a member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

• Chapter One: Introduction· The derisking race defined· Origins· The failure of engagement· The dynamics of the derisking raceChapter Two: From ‘hiding and biding’ to the ‘period of strategic opportunity’· Introduction· ‘Hiding and biding’· The ‘period of strategic opportunity’· ‘Going out’ in pursuit of resources· Securing fresh sources of demand· Beginning to hedge against the dominant dollar· Pushing for ‘indigenous innovation’Chapter Three: From engagement to derisking· Inertia and anxiety· Trump’s trade war upends engagement· Joining the derisking raceChapter Four: The dangers of dependence· Introduction· Initial moves· Consolidation and expansion· AssessmentChapter Five: The perils of penetration· Introduction· Components· Hardware· AssessmentChapter Six: Constricting access to US technology· Introduction· Export controls· Inbound investment· Outbound investment· AssessmentChapter Seven: The primacy of power· The end of the ‘period of strategic opportunity’· Demand: sustaining growth in a more dangerous world· Money: circumventing the dollar’s dominance· Technology: breaking ‘blockades’, grasping the ‘assassin’s mace’ and seizing the ‘commanding heights’· Resources: reducing vulnerability and enhancing leverage· AssessmentChapter Eight: Escalation or truce?· Trump 2.0· Handling ‘changes in the external situation’ and ‘managing our own affairs well’Chapter Nine: The derisking race: past, present and future· A preliminary net assessment· Derisking and fragmentationNotesIndex

‘The Derisking Race is a tour de force. Aaron Friedberg brings unmatched scholarly depth, policy experience and intellectual clarity to the defining economic contest of our era. His masterly analysis of how the US and China are reshaping global interdependence is both rigorous and riveting. An essential, brilliantly argued book from one of America’s foremost experts on great-power rivalry.’ALICIA GARCIA-HERRERO, Senior Fellow, Bruegel; Chief Economist for Asia Pacific, Natixis‘Aaron Friedberg sets out the strategic context for the US–China competition with a clarity and precision I have rarely encountered. This book provides a detailed account of the motivations and actions taken by Washington and Beijing, and its policy recommendations are logical and rigorous.’NIGEL INKSTER, Senior Adviser for Cyber Security and China, IISS; former Assistant Chief, Secret Intelligence Service (UK); author of The Great Decoupling: China, America and the Struggle for Technological Supremacy‘In The Derisking Race, Aaron Friedberg delivers the most comprehensive account so far of how China has exploited America’s open economic system for decades and a clear-eyed blueprint for what to do about it. The derisking race is already under way. The only question is whether America will run it smart or stumble. Friedberg has written the essential guide to answering this question. Every policymaker in Washington should read this book and then act on it.’JOSH ROGIN, Washington Post columnist and author of Chaos Under Heaven: Trump, Xi, and the Battle for the 21st Century‘Aaron Friedberg guides us through Washington’s evolving relationship with Beijing with analytical precision and describes clearly its most likely future course. Essential reading.’BRAD W. SETSER, Whitney Shepardson Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations; former senior adviser to the United States Trade Representative‘Aaron Friedberg has written a concise and compelling account of the history and likely future of the US–China relationship: an uncomfortable race with an uncertain outcome and unintended consequences for the rest of the world. He makes a passionate case against Washington’s current approach of wilfully undercutting its most prized assets – technology leadership and allied cooperation – and outlines a way to turn things around. An important plea for the US to change course, from one of the most important and experienced voices in the field.’JANKA OERTEL, Distinguished Policy Fellow – European Power, European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)‘This book provides the authoritative account of how the US and China spent a generation intentionally weaving their economies together, and how the leaders of both are now embarked on a path to disentangle them. Aaron Friedberg unpacks the strategic logic of derisking, evaluates Washington’s and Beijing’s success in reducing interdependencies, and delivers a blunt set of recommendations for revamping America’s current strategy.’PETER HARRELL, Georgetown Institute of International Economic Law; former senior director for international economics, National Security Council and the National Economic Council (US)