Commodity Modeling and Pricing

PETER SCHAEFFER is Professor of Economic Policy at West Virginia University and served as a director of the Division of Resource Management, which includes the Division of Agricultural and Resource Economics, from 1993 to 2006. He was a visiting professor of regional and environmental economics at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, and a visiting scholar at the International Labour Organization in Geneva.

• Preface ixAcknowledgments xiPart One Dynamics of Commodity Price Behavior 1Chapter 1 Indirect Inference and Long Memory: A New Truncated-Series Estimation Method—Armand Sadler, Jean-Baptiste Lesourd, and Vêlayoudom Marimoutou 3Chapter 2 Procyclicality of Primary Commodity Prices: A Stylized Fact?— A. Behrooz Afrasiabi 30Chapter 3 Nonlinear Features of Comovements between Commodity Prices and Inflation—Catherine Kyrtsou 52Chapter 4 The Oil Price and the Dollar Reconsidered—Sadek Melhem and Michel Terraza 65Part Two Inventory Dynamics and Price Behavior 77Chapter 5 Time-Varying Ratios of Primary and Scrap Metal Prices: Importance of Inventories—Irene M. Xiarchos 79Chapter 6 Metal Prices and the Supply of Storage—Paul Crompton and Irene M. Xiarchos 103Chapter 7 Testing for Temporal Asymmetry in the Metal Price-Stock Relationship—Eugene Kouassi 118Chapter 8 Do Fluctuations in Wine Stocks Affect Wine Prices?—James O. Bukenya 136Part Three Dynamics of Resource Markets 167Chapter 9 Dynamic Quadratic Programming in Process Control—Bruce A. Bancroft 169Chapter 10 Pollution Taxes and Price Control in the US Coal Market: A Rent Minimization Model—Chin W. Yang and Ming-Jeng Hwang 176Chapter 11 A Forecasting Simulation of Coal in Indonesia’s Energy Future— Ukar W. Soelistijo 185Chapter 12 Structural Decomposition Analysis of Changes in Material Demand in the U.S. Economy—Adam Rose and Chia-Yon Chen 195Part Four Environmental Resource Dynamics 209Chapter 13 Linking Trade and the Environment in China—Haixiao Huang 211Chapter 14 Critical Needs in China’s Water Resources—Andres Liebenthal 229Chapter 15 Public Input in Rural Land Preservation: Modeling Preference Asymmetries in Stated Preference Data—Robert J. Johnston and Kelly Giraud Cullen 247Chapter 16 African Women in Mining Partnerships—Brigitte Bocoum 267Epilogue Conclusions and Perspective—Walter C. Labys 279List of Contributors 289Index 295