Coercing Syria on Chemical Weapons

Matthew Moran is Professor of International Security and Head of the Department of War Studies at King's College London. His research spans a range of security-related issues, and he has published on subjects ranging from the Iranian nuclear challenge to the coercive effects of sanctions. Wyn Q. Bowen is Professor of Non-Proliferation and International Security in the Department of War Studies and Co-Director of the Freeman Air and Space Institute at King's College London. His research has covered a range of issues, including nuclear and missile proliferation and non-proliferation, the Iranian and Libyan nuclear programmes, deterrence, and threat reduction. Previous roles have included Head of the Defence Studies Department and the Head of the School of Security Studies at King's.Jeffrey W. Knopf is Professor of Nonproliferation and Terrorism Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey (MIIS). He previously taught at the University of SouthernCalifornia, the University of California-Santa Cruz, and the Naval Postgraduate School. Since 2012, he has served as the chair of the Nonproliferation and Terrorism Studies program at MIIS. Dr. Knopf has published widely, mainly on issues related to nuclear arms control and nonproliferation. He has also published research on prospects for deterring terrorism and on the impacts of public opinion and social movements on US foreign policy.

• Preface and Acknowledgments Postscript List of Abbreviations 1. Introduction: Responding to a Dictator's Use of Poison Gas 2. Analytical Framework: Credibility, Motivations, and Assurance as Factors in Coercion Outcomes 3. Syria and Chemical Weapons Prior to 2011: Relevant Precedents and the Evolution of Syria's Capability, Motives, and Strategy 4. From the Red Line to Ghouta 5. The Chemical Disarmament Deal 6. The Return to Chemical Weapons Use 7. Conclusion Epilogue Index

The work reviewed here is an important piece in understanding the calculusstates use in deciding to pursue, develop, and use unconventional weapons.