Climate Extremes

S.-Y. Simon Wang, Utah State University, USAJin-Ho Yoon, Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology, Republic of KoreaChristopher C. Funk, United States Geological Survey, USARobert R. Gillies, Utah State University, USA

• Contributors viiPreface xiAcknowledgments  xiiiPart I: Forcings of Climate Extremes1 The Changing El Nino–Southern Oscillation and Associated Climate ExtremesJin-Yi Yu, Xin Wang, Song Yang, Houk Paek, and Mengyan Chen 32 Weather Extremes Linked to Interaction of the Arctic and MidlatitudesTimo Vihma 393 Impact of Aerosols on Regional Changes in Climate ExtremesJana Sillmann and Jinho Yoon 514 Weakened Flow, Persistent Circulation, and Prolonged Weather Extremes in Boreal SummerDim Coumou, Kai Kornhuber, Jascha Lehmann, and Vladimir Petoukhov 615 Land Processes as the Forcing of Extremes: A ReviewMin-Hui Lo, Tzu-Hsien Kuo, Hao]Wei Wey, Chia-Wei Lan, and Jen-Ping Chen 75Part II: Processes of Climate Extremes6 Timing of Anthropogenic Emergence in Climate ExtremesAndrew D. King, Markus G. Donat, Ed Hawkins, and David J. Karoly 957 Recent Increases in Extreme Temperature Occurrence over LandScott J. Weaver, Arun Kumar, and Mingyue Chen 1058 Why Future Shifts in Tropical Precipitation Will Likely Be Small: The Location of the Tropical Rain Belt and the Hemispheric Contrast of Energy Input to the AtmosphereAaron Donohoe and Aiko Voigt  1159 Weather]Climate Interactions and MJO InfluencesPaul E. Roundy, Naoko Sakaeda, Kyle MacRitchie, and Lawrence Gloeckler 13910 Recent Climate Extremes Associated with the West Pacific Warming ModeChris Funk and Andrew Hoell 16511 Connections Between Heat Waves and Circumglobal Teleconnection Patterns in the Northern Hemisphere SummerHaiyan Teng and Grant Branstator 177Part III: Regional Climate Extremes12 North American Drought and Links to Northern Eurasia: The Role of Stationary Rossby WavesHailan Wang, Siegfried D. Schubert, and Randal D. Koster 19713 The California Drought: Trends and ImpactsShih]Yu (Simon) Wang, Jinho Yoon, Robert R. Gillies, and Huang-Hsiung Hsu 22314 Observed Trends in US Tornado FrequencyAdam J. Clark 23715 Mechanisms Explaining Recent Changes in Australian Climate ExtremesSophie C. Lewis, David J. Karoly, Andrew D. King, Sarah E. Perkins, and Markus G. Donat 24916 Unraveling East Africa’s Climate ParadoxBradfield Lyon and Nicolas Vigaud 26517 A Physical Model for Extreme Drought over Southwest AsiaAndrew Hoell, Chris Funk, Mathew Barlow, and Forest Cannon 283Part IV: Prediction of Climate Extremes18 Extratropical Precursors of the El Nino–Southern OscillationKathy V. Pegion and Christopher Selman 30119 North Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Prediction: Underlying Science and an Evaluation of Statistical ModelsPhilip J. Klotzbach, Mark A. Saunders, Gerald D. Bell, and Eric S. Blake 31520 Predicting Subseasonal Precipitation Variations Based on the Madden]Julian OscillationCharles Jones 32921 Prediction of Short]Term Climate Extremes with a Multimodel EnsembleEmily J. Becker 34722 Toward Predicting US Tornadoes in the Late 21st CenturyAdam J. Clark 361Index  371