Cases in Intelligence Analysis

Sarah Miller Beebe began thinking about a book of cases during her career as an analyst and manager at the Central Intelligence Agency. A variety of broadening experiences, including an assignment as director for Russia on the National Security Council staff and a position as a national counterintelligence officer at the Office of the National Counterintelligence Executive, drove home the need for rigorous and effective approaches to intelligence analysis. It became apparent to her that cases could not only teach important analytic lessons surrounding historical events but also give analysts experience using a question-based thinking approach underpinned by practical techniques to improve their analyses. Now, as owner of Ascendant Analytics, she helps organizations apply such techniques against their specific analytic problems.Randolph H. Pherson is president of Pherson Associates, LLC; CEO of Globalytica, LLC; and a founding director of the nonprofit Forum Foundation for Analytic Excellence. He teaches advanced analytic techniques and critical thinking skills to analysts in the government and private sector. Mr. Pherson collaborated with Richards Heuer Jr. in developing and launching use of Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, and he developed several analytic techniques for the CIA’s Sherman Kent School, many of which were incorporated in his Handbook of Analytic Tools and Techniques. He coauthored Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence with Katherine Hibbs Pherson, Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action with Sarah Miller Beebe, and several other guides for analysts on writing, briefing, indicators, and managing the production process. Mr. Pherson completed a twenty-eight-year career in the Intelligence Community in 2000, last serving as National Intelligence Officer (NIO) for Latin America. Previously at the CIA, Mr. Pherson managed the production of intelligence analysis on topics ranging from global instability to Latin America, served on the Inspector General’s staff, and was chief of the CIA’s Strategic Planning and Management Staff. He is the recipient of the Distinguished Intelligence Medal for his service as NIO and the Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal. Mr. Pherson received his B.A. from Dartmouth College and an M.A. in international relations from Yale University.

• 1. Who Poisoned Karinna Moskalenko?2. The Anthrax Killer3. Cyber H2O4. Is Wen Ho Lee a Spy?5. Jousting with Cuba over Radio Marti6. The Road to Tarin Kowt7. Who Murdered Jonathan Luna?8. The Assassination of Benazir Bhutto9. Death in the Southwest10. The Atlanta Olympics Bombing11. The DC Sniper12. Colombia′s FARC Attacks the US Homeland13. Understanding Revolutionary Organization 17 November14. Defending Mumbai from Terrorist Attack15. Iranian Meddling in Bahrain16. Shades of Orange in Ukraine17. Violence Erupts in Belgrade

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