Brazil Is the New America

JAMES DALE DAVIDSON is a successful entrepreneur who edits Strategic Investment. A cofounder, with Bill Bonner, of Agora Inc. and a cofounder of the media outlet Newsmax.com, Mr. Davidson is the author of five books. He defied conventional wisdom to forecast the Japanese stock market crash of 1989, the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the collapse of the Soviet Union.

• Preface xiiiAcknowledgments xvChapter 1 The World in 2050 1A Preview of the Future 2A Decrease in Productive Capacity 5Squandering Prosperity 9Chapter 2 The Original America Is the New Brazil 11The Country of the Future 14The Origins of America 20The Mythic Brazil 24A Difficult Dream to Realize 26Can America’s Destiny Be Fulfilled in Brazil? 28Chapter 3 How Brazil Became Endowed for Prosperity in a Collapsing World 35The Impact of Topography 36Yesterday’s Limitations as Today’s Strengths 45Three Radical Changes 53Predatory GovernmentGrowth Imperatives Lead to Fiat Money and Runaway DebtEnergy Surges Alter Spatial Configurations of EconomiesChapter 4 Prosperity and Energy Density: The Hidden Role of BTUs in the Rise and Fall of Economies 67Denser Energy Equals a Rise in Prosperity 68Coal and Adam Smith 69Going Forward or Backward?The Phases of Extracting Energy 73Phase One: An Abundance of WoodPhase Two: An Abundance of CoalPhase Three: The Original Petroleum IndustryThe Shift from Coal to Oil and World War I 75Peak Oil and Declining Money 79Declining Energy and Systemic CollapseThe Real Symptoms of Peak OilThe Competition for Prosperity 84Expensive Oil RemainsA 665,000 Percent Increase in the Price of a BTU?The SS Great Britain Sails Again 87“Yes! We Have No Bananas”Chapter 5 Malthus Again: Population Pressures, Global Cooling, and the Coming Dark Age 91The Dynamics of Weather 93Not Wrong, but Early 96Waiting for Our Malthusian Moment 100The Next Little Ice Age 104“The Dog That Did Not Bark” 114Putting Two and Two Together 117A New Maunder Minimum 124Dearth, Insanity, and Revolution 125Chapter 6 Deficit Attention Disorder: How the Perverse Logic of Debtism Promotes the Illusion of Democratic Consensus but Devastates the Economy 131How Debtism Changed the World 132Debtism Helps Politicians Manipulate You 142The U.S. Budget Deficits Would Make Greece Blush 144Worse than the Great Depression 149The Collapse of the Boom 156Chapter 7 “Rome” Falls, Again: Economic Closure and Financial Repression as the United States Faces Bankruptcy 159Slip-Sliding Down the Road to National Insolvency 160The Destruction of the Middle ClassPre-Industrial Growth RatesAre You Ready for Taxes to Double?Welcome to the Second Decline and Fall of “Rome” 167The New Berlin WallAmericans as the New Illegal Emigrants 172Chapter 8 The Sunny Side of the Leverage Cycle: How Brazil’s Legacy of Hyperinflation Prepared It to Prosper in a Post-Dollar World 175You Are in Steerage on a Sinking Ship 178Stopping Runaway Spending 181Important Lessons from Hyperinflation 185Minimal Bank Capital Ratios: A Crisis Waiting to HappenU.S. Reserve Requirements: A System FailureThe Political Roots of the Economic CrisisHow Brazilians Became the New ScotsCrash-Proofing the System Brazilian StyleAmerica’s $104 Trillion ProblemBrazil and the Taylor RuleLeverage and Growth 195GDP Gains Based on Income Growth 196Chapter 9 A Bounty of Water and Land: Brazil as History’s First Tropical Superpower 199Brazil and Water 199SustainabilityA World of Water ShortagesRenewable WaterBrazil Reinvents Agriculture 206The New Breadbasket of the World DiversificationIrrigationA History of Small and Large FarmsA Stunning IncreaseChapter 10 Reversing the Gap: Brazil as the World’s Emerging Energy Superpower 221The Zero Sum Growth Game 222Grim Prospects 226Pulling the Plug 228Submerging Economies 231Rio Is the New Houston 233Leading the Way in Renewable Energy 238Let There Be Light 242Declining Power after an Energy Transition 244Chapter 11 Demographic Turbocharge: Brazil’s Coming Decades of Miracle Growth 247China Takes a Dive? 251Brazil’s Demographic Bonus 253A Laboratory for New Products 257A Real Cultural Melting Pot 258Chapter 12 Back to the Future: What Could Go Wrong 261Is Brazil Following the United StatesToo Closely? 262Weight 264Effects on Health Care 268Diversity Issues 270Infrastructure 274Corruption 277Bureaucracy 278Custo Brasil 281Credit 284Chapter 13 On the Outside Looking In: Making the Move toward Prosperity 289Conclusions 290HealthcareEducationMilitary“Plagiarize, Plagiarize, Why Not Use Your Eyes?” 298Coming Soon: Financial Repression 299“Revocation or Denial of Passport in Case of Certain Unpaid Taxes” From the Empire Settlement Act to Unsettling Choices 302Looking at BRICs 304Untapped ResourcesClimate: Brazil Stays Warm in the Little Ice AgeU.S. Farmers Lead the Migration to BrazilMaking the Move 308About the Author 311Index 313