Bayesian Inference in the Social Sciences

IVAN JELIAZKOV, PhD, is Associate Professor of Economics and Statistics at the University of California, Irvine. Dr. Jeliazkov's research interests include Bayesian econometrics and discrete data analysis, model comparison, and simulation-based inference. In addition to developing new methods and estimation techniques, his work features applications in a variety of disciplines, including micro- and macroeconomics, marketing, political science, transportation, and environmental engineering. XIN-SHE YANG, PhD, is Reader in Modeling and Optimization at Middlesex University, United Kingdom, as well as Adjunct Professor at Reykjavik University, Iceland. He is the author of Mathematical Modeling with Multidisciplinary Applications and Engineering Optimization: An Introduction with Metaheuristic Applications, both of which are published by Wiley.

• List of Figures iii 1 Bayesian Analysis of Dynamic Network Regression with Joint Edge/Vertex Dynamics 1Zack W. Almquist and Carter T. Butts 1.1 Introduction 2 1.2 Statistical Models for Social Network Data 2 1.3 Dynamic Network Logistic Regression with Vertex Dynamics 11 1.4 Empirical Examples and Simulation Analysis 14 1.5 Discussion 29 1.6 Conclusion 30 2 Ethnic Minority Rule and Civil War: A Bayesian Dynamic Multilevel Analysis 39Xun Pang 2.1 Introduction: Ethnic Minority Rule and Civil War 40 2.2 EMR: Grievance and Opportunities of Rebellion 41 2.3 Bayesian GLMM-AR(p) Model 42 2.4 Variables, Model and Data 47 2.5 Empirical Results and Interpretation 49 2.6 Civil War: Prediction 54 2.7 Robustness Checking: Alternative Measures of EMR 59 2.8 Conclusion 60 References 62 3 Bayesian Analysis of Treatment Effect Models 67Mingliang Li and Justin L. Tobias 3.1 Introduction 68 3.2 Linear Treatment Response Models Under Normality 69 3.3 Nonlinear Treatment Response Models 73 3.4 Other Issues and Extensions: Non-Normality, Model Selection and Instrument Imperfection 78 3.5 Illustrative Application 84 3.6 Conclusion 89 4 Bayesian Analysis of Sample Selection Models 95Martijn van Hasselt 4.1 Introduction 95 4.2 Univariate Selection Models 97 4.3 Multivariate Selection Models 101 4.4 Semiparametric Models 111 4.5 Conclusion 114 References 114 5 Modern Bayesian Factor Analysis 117Hedibert Freitas Lopes 5.1 Introduction 117 5.2 Normal linear factor analysis 119 5.3 Factor stochastic volatility 125 5.4 Spatial factor analysis 128 5.5 Additional developments 133 5.6 Modern non-Bayesian factor analysis 136 5.7 Final remarks 137 6 Estimation of stochastic volatility models with heavy tails and serial dependence 159Joshua C.C. Chan and Cody Y.L. Hsiao 6.1 Introduction 159 6.2 Stochastic Volatility Model 160 6.3 Moving Average Stochastic Volatility Model 168 6.4 Stochastic Volatility Models with Heavy-Tailed Error Distributions 173 References 178 7 From the Great Depression to the Great Recession: A Modelbased Ranking of U.S. Recessions 181Rui Liu and Ivan Jeliazkov 7.1 Introduction 181 7.2 Methodology 183 7.3 Results 188 7.4 Conclusions 191 Appendix: Data 192 References 192 8 What Difference Fat Tails Make: A Bayesian MCMC Estimation of Empirical Asset Pricing Models 201Paskalis Glabadanidis 8.1 Introduction 202 8.2 Methodology 204 8.3 Data 205 8.4 Empirical Results 206 8.5 Concluding Remarks 212 9 Stochastic Search For Price Insensitive Consumers 227Eric Eisenstat 9.1 Introduction 228 9.2 Random utility models in marketing applications 230 9.3 The censored mixing distribution in detail 234 9.4 Reference price models with price thresholds 240 9.5 Conclusion 244 References 245 10 Hierarchical Modeling of Choice Concentration of US Households 249Karsten T. Hansen, Romana Khan and Vishal Singh 10.1 Introduction 250 10.2 Data Description 252 10.3 Measures of Choice Concentration 252 10.4 Methodology 254 10.5 Results 256 10.6 Interpreting θ 260 10.7 Decomposing the effects of time, number of decisions and concentration preference 263 10.8 Conclusion 265 References 267 11 Approximate Bayesian inference in models defined through estimating equations 269 11.1 Introduction 269 11.2 Examples 271 11.3 Frequentist estimation 273 11.4 Bayesian estimation 276 11.5 Simulating from the posteriors 281 11.6 Asymptotic theory 283 11.7 Bayesian validity 285 11.8 Application 286 11.9 Conclusions 288 12 Reacting to Surprising Seemingly Inappropriate Results 295Dale J. Poirier 12.1 Introduction 295 12.2 Statistical Framework 296 12.3 Empirical Illustration 300 12.4 Discussion 301 References 301 13 Identification and MCMC estimation of bivariate probit models with partial observability 303Ashish Rajbhandari 13.1 Introduction 303 13.2 Bivariate Probit Model 305 13.3 Identification in a partially observable model 307 13.4 Monte Carlo Simulations 308 13.5 Bayesian Methodology 309 13.6 Application 312 13.7 Conclusion 315 Chapter Appendix 316 References 317 14 School Choice Effects in Tokyo Metropolitan Area: A Bayesian Spatial Quantile Regression Approach 321Kazuhiko Kakamu and Hajime Wago 14.1 Introduction 321 14.2 The Model 323 14.3 Posterior Analysis 325 14.4 Empirical Analysis 326 14.5 Conclusions 330