Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting

John Bryant is a senior researcher at Statistics New Zealand. He has previously worked at the New Zealand Treasury, and at universities in New Zealand and Thailand. He has consulted for many international organizations, including UNICEF, the FAO, and the World Bank. His research interests include applied demography, data science, and Bayesian statistics.Junni L. Zhang is an associate professor of statistics at Guanghua School of Management, Peking University. Her research interests include Bayesian statistics, text mining, and causal inference. She has extensive experience teaching undergraduate, graduate, MBA and executive courses, and is the author of Data Mining and Its Applications (in Chinese).

• Preface1 Introduction I Demographic Foundations 2 Demographic Foundations 3 Demographic Individuals 4 Demographic Arrays 5 Demographic Accounts 6 Demographic Data II Bayesian Foundations 7 Bayesian Foundations 8 Bayesian Model Specification 9 Bayesian Inference and Model Checking III Inferring Arrays from Reliable Data 10 Inferring Demographic Arrays from Reliable Data 11 Infant Mortality in Sweden 12 Life Expectancy in Portugal 13 Health Expenditure in the Netherlands IV Inferring Arrays from Unreliable Data 14 Inferring Demographic Arrays from Unreliable Data 15 Internal Migration in Iceland 16 Fertility in Cambodia V Inferring Accounts 17 Inferring Demographic Accounts 18 Population in New Zealand 19 Population in China 20 Conclusion