An Introduction to State Space Time Series Analysis

Jacques J.F. Commandeur is Senior Researcher at the SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research, Leidschendam, The Netherlands. His Ph.D. is from the Department of Psychometrics and Research Methodology of Leiden University. Between 1991 and 2000 he did research for the Department of Data Theory and the Department of Educational Sciences at Leiden University in the fields of multidimensional scaling and nonlinear multivariate data analysis. Since 2000 he has been at SWOV researching the statistical and methodological aspects of road safety research in general, and time series analysis of developments in road safety in particular.His research interests are Procrustes analysis; Multidimensional scaling; Distance-based multivariate analysis; Statistical analysis of time series; Forecasting. He has published in international journals in psychometrics and chemometrics.Siem Jan Koopman is Professor of Econometrics at the Free University Amsterdam and the Tinbergen Institute. His Ph.D. is from the London School of Economics (LSE) and he has held positions at the LSE between 1992 and 1997 and at the CentER (Tilburg University) between 1997 and 1999. In 2002 he visited the US Bureau of the Census in Washington DC as an ASA / NSF / US Census / BLS Research Fellow. His research interests are Statistical analysis of time series; Theoretical and applied time series econometrics; Financial econometrics; Simulation methods; Kalman filtering and smoothing; Forecasting. He has published in many international journals in statistics and econometrics.

• 1. Introduction ; 2. The Local Level Model ; 3. The Local Linear Trend Model ; 4. The Local Level Model with Seasonal ; 5. The Local Level Model with Explanatory Variable ; 6. The Local Level Model with Intervention Variable ; 7. The UK Seat Belt and Inflation Models ; 8. General Treatment of Univariate State Space Models ; 9. Multivariate Time Series Analysis ; 10. State Space and Box-Jenkins Methods for Time Series Analysis ; 11. State Space Modelling in Practice ; 12. Conclusions ; Appendix A UK Drivers KSI and Petrol Price ; Appendix B Road Traffic Fatalities in Norway and Finland ; Appendix C UK Front and Rear Seat Passengers KSI ; Appendix D UK Price Changes

a fascinating read...excellent