One Semester Away from a Crisis

William T. Bogart served as president of Maryville College, Maryville, Tennessee, and Columbia College, Columbia, South Carolina. He is the author of The Economics of Cities and Suburbs and Don't Call It Sprawl: Metropolitan Structure in the Twenty-First Century.

• Prologue: Becoming a President ix1 Introduction 12 Make vs. Buy 133 Friends, Rivals, Neighbors, and Family294 Portfolio 415 Making a Profit 536 One Semester Away from a Crisis 677 Secular Missionaries 838 Risk and Uncertainty 1019 Herding 11710 Regulation 12911 Mergers, Consortia, Startups, and Closures 147Further Reading 163Acknowledgments169Notes 171References 173Index 000

"One Semester Away From a Crisis is smart and thought-provoking. Bogart's approach, based on years of experience, is both sympathetic to the challenges facing institutions of higher education and generous with examples that are instructive for today's leaders. An important addition to any sitting (or aspiring) president's bookshelf." - Suzanne M. Rivera, president of Macalester College "A member of the dismal science, Bogart brings surprising flair to economic insights for the operation of small colleges. The writing is engaging, and the author never loses sight of his serious purpose: to support the sustainability of institutions living on the existential edge." - Nathan D. Grawe author of The Agile College: How Institutions Successfully Navigate Demographic Changes "Bogart adeptly describes the opportunities and challenges impacting leadership at America's small colleges while offering insights and remedies that only an economist-turned-chief-executive could bring to the table. A smart read for anyone who wants to understand how the complexities and peculiarities of small colleges are placing their essential role in our system of higher education at risk." - Jeff Arnold, executive director of the Association of Presbyterian Colleges and Universities "Bogart offers an important new perspective to the often surprising context of finances at a small private college. While the vocabulary, guidelines, regulations, and standards appear consistent across higher education institutions, the realities of the truly small independent college are distinctly different. Analyzing these challenges from an economics perspective—not just a financial management perspective—is an important new contribution to the field. Small private colleges are a vital component of the American higher education ecosystem, and this book should be on the reading list for all presidents and board leaders." - Lawrence D. Czarda, president of Greensboro College "This book is a must-read for anyone in a leadership role at a small college. With clarity, candor, and the analytical rigor of an economist, Bogart illuminates the unique challenges and opportunities facing enrollment-driven institutions. By blending real-world presidential experience with powerful yet digestible economic concepts, the book challenges presidents, trustees, and aspiring leaders to ask the hard (and right) questions—and to view their institution through a rare, but important framework." - Brian Ralph, former president of William Peace University "As a former small college president, I am drawn to Bogart's title and urgency. Small colleges, and larger ones with limited resources, are facing a perfect storm of economics, demographics, and politics. They need leaders who are informed, strategic, and ready to act. Bogart provides these leaders with both a compelling analysis and a toolkit for action. He is also the rare former president and practicing economist who can write a readable book." - W. Joseph King, coauthor of How to Run a College: A Practical Guide for Trustees, Faculty, Administrators, and Policymakers "Small colleges are a vital but often overlooked segment of the U.S. higher education ecosystem. Bogart combines leadership experience with economic insight to illuminate the unique challenges these institutions face and offers a distinctive and valuable perspective on how to lead them effectively." - Beth Rushing, president of the Appalachian College Association "At a time when innovative frameworks are needed to change the trajectory of higher education, Bogart's One Semester Away from a Crisis is an indispensable guide for leaders of small colleges navigating an industry in need of change. Using a unique, clear, disciplined lens of economics, the book unpacks complex leadership challenges—balancing constituent interests, managing scarce resources, leveraging cooperation with competitors, and sustaining mission in the face of financial constraints. Each chapter offers self-contained, real-world applications of core economic concepts, from constrained optimization and portfolio diversification to regulatory capture and the logic of collective action, all tailored to the unique realities of small, teaching-focused institutions. Rather than offering abstract theory, Bogart provides an accessible and practical framework that clarifies why certain decisions—whether in pricing, program design, governance, or partnerships—are made, and how leaders can make them more effectively. For presidents, trustees, senior administrators, and emerging leaders committed to stewarding their institutions through uncertainty, this book is both a reality check and a roadmap for resilient, mission-driven leadership." - Kristine Barnett, program director of the Higher Education Administration at Columbia College "There are few people better qualified to write about leadership at small colleges than Tom Bogart. Not only does he bring to bear his experience from multiple presidencies and other leadership roles, but he uses the lens of economics (honed through years of teaching economics classes) to set forth with remarkable clarity the challenges and opportunities these colleges face. Anyone concerned about higher education in America should read this book." - Andrew Morriss, professor at the Bush School of Government & Public Service at Texas A&M University