Catastrophic Risk

Richard Alfred is Emeritus Professor of Higher Education at the University of Michigan. Prior to joining the graduate faculty at Michigan in 1980, he served as an executive officer in the City University of New York and the Metropolitan Community Colleges in Kansas City, Missouri. He is the author of numerous books among them Developing Tomorrow’s Leaders: Context, Challenges and Capabilities (2015), Performance: The Dynamic of Results in Postsecondary Organizations (2012), and an award-winning book on organizational strategy, Managing the Big Picture in Colleges and Universities: From Tactics to Strategy (2006). Over the course of a 50-year career in academe, he has consulted with hundreds of organizations in the areas of strategy, organizational effectiveness and performance, and leadership. Foresight into the future—a hallmark of his books and written works—has shaped management and leadership practice in colleges and universities throughout North America. Dick holds a baccalaureate degree from Allegheny College and masters and doctoral degrees from Penn State University. He and his wife Pat reside in Ocean Park, Maine.

• PART ONE: SETTING THE CONTEXT Chapter 1. A World at Risk Chapter 2. Deterrents to Action PART TWO: CHALLENGES AND DETERRENTS Chapter 3. The Power and Peril of Pandemic Chapter 4. Climate Change: Default, Mitigation, or Adaptation? Chapter 5. Social Inequality Chapter 6. Polarization: Factions, Filters and Antipathy Chapter 7. Changing Social Norms Chapter 8. Navigating and Falling Behind Change PART THREE: SHAPING THE FUTURE Chapter 9. Rethinking Business Purpose and Strategy Chapter 10. Mobilizing

"In Catastrophic Risk, Richard Alfred tackles one of the most salient topics to today’s business: risks that are global in scale, yet barely perceptible. These are risks that threaten all human life. They include climate change, the pandemic, social inequality and rogue technologies. Almost everyone contributes to and suffers from these risks, yet no one person can control them. Alfred takes the reader on an important journey in explaining the risks, how they arose, and why we aren’t acting, in spite of their existential threat. He leaves the reader both sobered about the significance of the issues around us, yet hopeful because of the clear guidance he offers in mobilizing action. This book is clearly of the moment."Pratima (Tima) Bansal, FRSCCanada Research Chair in Business SustainabilityIvey Business School, Western University"In Catastrophic Risk, author Richard Alfred provides us the 21st Century version of Silent Spring, which foretold the risk to an earlier generation of the risk of complacency during a time of obvious, pending catastrophe. The world responded and now bald eagle populations are literally soaring. The risks we now face are on a much grander scale than we've ever seen. In this crisis, lies an epic opportunity where people will thrive on what makes us the most human: Creativity, Imagination, Invention and Innovation. These traits will unveil unprecedented opportunities for those who embrace their power on the economic, governmental, social, business, technological and entrepreneurial frontiers." Richard SheridanCEO, and Chief Storyteller of Menlo InnovationsAuthor, Joy, Inc. - How We Built a Workplace People LoveChief Joy Officer - How Great Leaders Eliminate Fear and Elevate Human Energy"Catastrophic Risk presents a critical examination of the fragile and perilous world in which we inhabit. Richard Alfred, a researcher, author and professor emeritus of effective leadership, offers us an unvarnished analysis of the COVID pandemic, climate change, growing income and social inequity and other natural and man-made challenges that threaten to upend the social, political, and economic world order. Through his careful and thoughtful narrative, Alfred makes a compelling case that we, as human beings, possess the natural abilities of intelligence, creativity, and survival instinct to both understand, anticipate, and in many cases, prepare for and mitigate risk. Fundamentally, it’s a question of leadership and the ability to build commitment and momentum to effect real and long-lasting change. Those of us in leadership positions with opportunities to influence must take heed of Alfred’s clarion call and mobilize our constituencies and communities to bring about a more just, equitable and sustainable world."J. Noah BrownPresident and CEOAssociation of Community College Trustees"In Catastrophic Risk: Business Strategy for Managing Turbulence in a World at Risk, Richard Alfred provides a clarion call for leaders in business, education, and health—indeed leaders in all industries including government—to give serious thought to the forces and challenges facing their organizations in the immediate future. Drawing widely on literature and research in the social and environmental sciences, he lays out the critical nature of forces—climate change, social inequality, contagion, changing norms and more—that interact to provide a "catastrophic set of risk conditions" confronting all organizations. He then describes the implications of these challenges for leaders and identifies forward-thinking, externally-focused strategies that will be necessary to address the worst effects of a potentially catastrophic future. A prescient contribution to the future of industries and organizations and a must read for leaders who question the viability of their current strategies for change."Marvin W. Peterson, Professor Emeritus and Former DirectorCenter for the Study of Higher and Postsecondary EducationUniversity of MichiganCatastrophic Risk is an exceptional and timely work by Richard Alfred. Dr. Alfred has devoted over 40 years of professional life to researching, writing, teaching, consulting and mentoring leaders on organizational strategy and effectiveness. Catastrophic Risk, his latest work, gives the serious reader thoughtful, sustainable and human-centered strategies to enhance organizational performance in a turbulent world. The strength of this work is grounded in its clarity, purpose and vision supported by carefully annotated risks including global pandemic, climate change, polarizing social disruption, and the uncertainty of change. Factual documentation is presented and ideas are carefully developed while defensive modes of thought and political ideology are absent. Once catastrophic risk is explained and differentiated from conventional risk, attention turns to rethinking business strategy in a context of turbulence. Leaders are called upon to pursue shared value creation, civic outreach, and to rethink the goal of profit. The author’s challenge to business and, perhaps to all of us, is to reinterpret the fundamental purpose of business, and indeed, of organizations in general, in a world at risk. No small task, but critically important in an environment of deepening conditions, fast change and growing urgency. Catastrophic Risk is written on the basis of conditions and events in the world we live in. More importantly, however, it is premised on a vision of what our world could become and humanitarian strategies that will be needed to preserve the common good. Margaret A. Gratton, President EmeritusOrange Coast CollegeCosta Mesa, California