Andrew Smithers is founder and director of economic consultancy Smithers & Co. He is the author of The Road to Recovery: How and Why Economic Policy Must Change (Wiley, 2013), and Productivity and the Bonus Culture (OUP, 2018).

• Foreword by Andy Haldane 1: Introduction 2: Surprising Features of the Model 3: The Model in Summary 4: Management Behaviour, Investment, Debt, and Pay-out Ratios 5: Corporate Leverage and Household Portfolio Preference 6: The Growth of Corporate Equity 7: The Yield Curve 8: The Risk-Free Short-term Rate of Interest 9: Equity, Bond, and Cash Relative Returns 10: Stock Market Returns Do Not Follow a Random Walk 11: The Risks of Equities at Different Time Horizons 12: The Time Horizon at Which Investors Will Prefer Equities to Bonds 13: Changes in Aggregate Risk Aversion 14: Monetary Policy, Leverage, and Portfolio Preferences 15: Valuing the US Stock Market 16: The Real Return on Equity Capital Worldwide 17: Money and Time Weighted Returns 18: The Behaviour of The Firm 19: Corporate Investment and the Miller-Modigliani Theorem 20: Land, Inventories, and Trade Credit 21: How the Market Returns to Fair Value 22: Fluctuations in the Hurdle Rate 23: Tangibles and Intangibles 24: Other Problems from Labelling IP Expenditure as Investment 25: Inflation, Leverage, Growth, and Financial Stability. 26: Tax 27: Portfolio Preference and Retirement Savings 28: Life Cycle Savings Hypothesis (LCSH) 29: Depreciation, Capital Consumption, and Maintenance 30: Comparison with Other Approaches 31: The Efficient Market Hypothesis 32: Summary 33: Comments in Conclusion Appendices Appendix 1. The Duration of Bonds and Equities Appendix 2. The Valuation of Unquoted Companies in The Financial Accounts of the United States - Z1 Appendix 3. Measurement of the Net Capital Stock and Depreciation in the US Appendix 4. Data Sources, Use, and Methods of Calculation

Smithers was one of the few economists to warn about the internet bubble and the dangers posed by the ensuing global credit boom. His current concerns shouldn't be dismissed lightly.

Andrew Smithers is founder and director of economic consultancy Smithers & Co. He is the author of The Road to Recovery: How and Why Economic Policy Must Change (Wiley, 2013), and Productivity and the Bonus Culture (OUP, 2018).

• Foreword by Andy Haldane 1: Introduction 2: Surprising Features of the Model 3: The Model in Summary 4: Management Behaviour, Investment, Debt, and Pay-out Ratios 5: Corporate Leverage and Household Portfolio Preference 6: The Growth of Corporate Equity 7: The Yield Curve 8: The Risk-Free Short-term Rate of Interest 9: Equity, Bond, and Cash Relative Returns 10: Stock Market Returns Do Not Follow a Random Walk 11: The Risks of Equities at Different Time Horizons 12: The Time Horizon at Which Investors Will Prefer Equities to Bonds 13: Changes in Aggregate Risk Aversion 14: Monetary Policy, Leverage, and Portfolio Preferences 15: Valuing the US Stock Market 16: The Real Return on Equity Capital Worldwide 17: Money and Time Weighted Returns 18: The Behaviour of The Firm 19: Corporate Investment and the Miller-Modigliani Theorem 20: Land, Inventories, and Trade Credit 21: How the Market Returns to Fair Value 22: Fluctuations in the Hurdle Rate 23: Tangibles and Intangibles 24: Other Problems from Labelling IP Expenditure as Investment 25: Inflation, Leverage, Growth, and Financial Stability. 26: Tax 27: Portfolio Preference and Retirement Savings 28: Life Cycle Savings Hypothesis (LCSH) 29: Depreciation, Capital Consumption, and Maintenance 30: Comparison with Other Approaches 31: The Efficient Market Hypothesis 32: Summary 33: Comments in Conclusion Appendices Appendix 1. The Duration of Bonds and Equities Appendix 2. The Valuation of Unquoted Companies in The Financial Accounts of the United States - Z1 Appendix 3. Measurement of the Net Capital Stock and Depreciation in the US Appendix 4. Data Sources, Use, and Methods of Calculation

Smithers was one of the few economists to warn about the internet bubble and the dangers posed by the ensuing global credit boom. His current concerns shouldn't be dismissed lightly.

Andrew Smithers is founder and director of economic consultancy Smithers & Co. He is the author of The Road to Recovery: How and Why Economic Policy Must Change (Wiley, 2013), and Productivity and the Bonus Culture (OUP, 2018).

• Foreword by Andy Haldane 1: Introduction 2: Surprising Features of the Model 3: The Model in Summary 4: Management Behaviour, Investment, Debt, and Pay-out Ratios 5: Corporate Leverage and Household Portfolio Preference 6: The Growth of Corporate Equity 7: The Yield Curve 8: The Risk-Free Short-term Rate of Interest 9: Equity, Bond, and Cash Relative Returns 10: Stock Market Returns Do Not Follow a Random Walk 11: The Risks of Equities at Different Time Horizons 12: The Time Horizon at Which Investors Will Prefer Equities to Bonds 13: Changes in Aggregate Risk Aversion 14: Monetary Policy, Leverage, and Portfolio Preferences 15: Valuing the US Stock Market 16: The Real Return on Equity Capital Worldwide 17: Money and Time Weighted Returns 18: The Behaviour of The Firm 19: Corporate Investment and the Miller-Modigliani Theorem 20: Land, Inventories, and Trade Credit 21: How the Market Returns to Fair Value 22: Fluctuations in the Hurdle Rate 23: Tangibles and Intangibles 24: Other Problems from Labelling IP Expenditure as Investment 25: Inflation, Leverage, Growth, and Financial Stability. 26: Tax 27: Portfolio Preference and Retirement Savings 28: Life Cycle Savings Hypothesis (LCSH) 29: Depreciation, Capital Consumption, and Maintenance 30: Comparison with Other Approaches 31: The Efficient Market Hypothesis 32: Summary 33: Comments in Conclusion Appendices Appendix 1. The Duration of Bonds and Equities Appendix 2. The Valuation of Unquoted Companies in The Financial Accounts of the United States - Z1 Appendix 3. Measurement of the Net Capital Stock and Depreciation in the US Appendix 4. Data Sources, Use, and Methods of Calculation

Smithers was one of the few economists to warn about the internet bubble and the dangers posed by the ensuing global credit boom. His current concerns shouldn't be dismissed lightly.