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Living standards in the UK and US are in danger of falling. A decline in growth due to poor productivity and an unfavourable change in demography has weakened the stand of liberal democracy, and voter dissatisfaction is encouraging populist policies that threaten even worse outcomes. Whilst living standards once grew faster than productivity they now grow more slowly, and the working population is no longer growing faster than the population as a whole. To avoid falling living standards the productivity problem must be addressed.Andrew Smithers argues that faster productivity does not depend, as many suggest, on technology; it also relies on investment. Current growth theory is based on a faulty model which has induced pessimism about our ability to encourage more growth. Productivity and the Bonus Culture sets out a revised model which demonstrates that weakness in productivity is the result of the bonus culture, and suggests ways to change this flawed system so that investment is encouraged and growth returns.
Andrew Smithers is the founder of economic consultancy Smithers & Co. He is the author of Valuing Wall Street: Protecting Wealth in Turbulent Markets, The Road to Recovery: How Economic Policy Must Change, and Wall Street Revalued: Imperfect Markets and Inept Central Bankers. He is a former columnist for the London Evening Standard, and has also written columns and blogs for The Times and the Financial Times.
1: The legacy of the financial crisis2: What I seek to show3: Poor productivity and damaging demography4: The cause of poor productivity5: Ageing populations6: Other influences on growth7: The problem of income inequality8: Two models of growth9: Investment and the stock of capital10: Description of my model11: The results of my model12: Testing the proposed model13: Investment, the capital stock, and economic policy14: The bonus culture has raised the hurdle gate15: The added impact of misinformation16: Implications for growth17: Management and shareholder interests18: Distractions from serious debate19: Deflation20: The UK is similar to the US21: Reversing perverse incentives22: Changing the economic impact of current incentives23: Misinformation adds to risks for the economy24: The economic consequences of higher investment25: Summary and conclusionsAPPENDICESA.1: The impact of real and nominal interest ratesA.2: Measurement of the net capital stock and depriciation in the UK and the USA.3: The Gini CoefficientA.4: The formulae for NTVA.5: US profits as published are habitually overstatedA.6: The Balassa-Samuelson effectA.7: Abolishing ACT caused a large rise in the effective rate of corporation taxA.8: Why profit margins in mature economies are expected to revert to their mean
Smithers is quietly persuasive, and invites the public to discuss and debate his ideas. A glossary helps nonspecialists understand the terminology. ... Summing up: Recommended