Leading Economic Indicators and Business Cycles in the United States

John B. Guerard, Jr., Ph.D. is a member of the McKinley Capital Management Scientific Advisory Board. He served almost 15 years as Director of Quantitative Research at McKinley Capital Management, in Anchorage, Alaska. John is an Affiliate Instructor in the Department of Applied Mathematics, the Computational Finance and Risk Management Program, The University of Washington, Seattle, WA. He earned his AB in Economics from Duke University, MA in Economics from the University of Virginia, MSIM from the Georgia Institute of Technology, and Ph.D. in Finance from the University of Texas, Austin. Mr. Guerard took three of his doctoral seminars at Texas from Jan Mossin, a co-developer of the Capital Asset Pricing model. John taught at the McIntire School of Commerce, the University of Virginia, Lehigh University, and Rutgers University. John taught as an adjunct faculty member at New York University, and the University of Pennsylvania. He worked with the DAIS Group at Drexel, Burnham, Lambert, Daiwa Securities Trust Company, where he co-managed the Japanese Equity Fund portfolio with Harry Markowitz. While serving as Director of Quantitative Research at Vantage Global Advisors, Mr. Guerard was awarded the first Moskowitz Prize for research in socially responsible investing. John has published several monographs, including Corporate Financial Policy and R&D Management (Wiley, 2006), Quantitative Corporate Finance (Kluwer, now Springer, 2007, with Eli Schwartz, the third edition is at press, 2021), The Handbook of Portfolio Construction: Contemporary Applications of Markowitz Techniques (Springer, 2010), Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis (Springer, 2013), and The Handbook of Applied Investment Research (World Scientific Publishing, 2020, with William T. Ziemba). John serves an Associate Editor of the Journal of Investing and The International Journal of Forecasting and has published research inThe International Journal of Forecasting, Management Science, the IBM Journal of Research and Development, Annals of Operations Research, Journal of Forecasting, Journal of Investing, Journal of Portfolio Management, The Financial Analysts Journal, Research in Finance, Research Policy, and the Journal of the Operational Research Society.

• Chapter 1. Economic Growth and Business Cycles in the United States.- Chapter 2. Mr. Wesley Clair Mitchell: The Advent of U.S. and NBER Business Cycle Research.- Chapter 3. Measuring Business Activity, An Introductions to the Contributions of Mr. Persons, Mr. Schumpeter, Mr. Haberler, and Mr. Eckstein.- Chapter 4. Mr. Burns and Mr. Mitchell on Measuring Business Cycles.- Chapter 5. Mr. Geoffrey Moore and NBER Business Cycle Research.- Chapter 6. Mr. Victor Zarnowitz and Economic Forecasting, and NBER Business Cycle Research.- Chapter 7. Regression and Time Series Modeling of Real GDP, the Unemployment Rate, and the Impact of Leading Economic Indicators on Forecasting Accuracy.- Chapter 8. Granger-Causality Testing and LEI Forecasting of Quarterly Mergers and the Unemployment Rate.- Chapter 9. Active Management in Portfolio Selection and Management within Business Cycles and Present-Day COVID.- Chapter 10. Testing and Forecasting the Unemployment Rate with the Most Current Data, TCB LEI, data as of 11/05/2021.- Chapter 11. Conclusions and Summary.