Iraq’s Divided Majority

Zeidon Alkinani is a Middle East Analyst and Lecturer of Middle East Politics at Georgetown University in Qatar. He was previously a Non-Resident Fellow at the Arab Center Washington (2021–2024) and the Center for Iranian Studies in Ankara (iRAM) (2021–2022), as well as a Teaching Fellow at the University of Aberdeen (2021–2022). Dr. Alkinani holds a PhD in Politics and International Relations from the University of Aberdeen, an MSc in International Public Policy from University College London (UCL), and a BA in Politics and International Relations from the University of Westminster.

• Table of ContentsAcknowledgementsList of AbbreviationsList of Definitions1. Chapter: Introduction1.1. Introduction1.2. Existing Scholarly Debate1.3. Current Situation1.4. Research Importance and Identified Gap1.5. Research Question1.6. Theoretical and Methodological Framework1.6.1. Primary Data A – Elite Speeches1.6.2. The Selected Shia Iraqi Elite Actors1.6.3. The Core Themes1.6.4. Primary Data B – Semi-Structured Interviews1.6.5. Secondary Data – Academic Literature1.6.6. Data Analysis: Critical Discourse Analysis1.7. Structure of the Book2. Chapter: Consociationalism and State Building in the Aftermath of Regime Change in Iraq2.1. Introduction2.2. Consociationalism – Proportional Representation or Enforced Homogenisation?2.2.1. An Evolving Debate2.2.2. Theoretical Definitions2.2.3. Limitations and Potentials2.2.4. From Consociational Theory to Practice2.2.5. Centripetalism2.2.6. Consociation and Identity2.2.7. Ethnic Outbidding: Identity Over Issue2.2.8. Consociationalism and Intra-Group Rivalries2.3. Consociationalism in Iraq – Between Democratisation and Power-Sharing2.3.1. Foundational Systemic Loopholes2.3.2. The (Early) Noticed Potentials2.3.3. The Current Status-Quo of Iraq’s Consociationalism2.4. Imagining Iraq’s ‘Muhasasa’ Consociational Democracy2.4.1. Liberation or Occupation? The Militarised Democratisation2.4.2. Democratisation or Sectarianisation?2.4.3. International Regime-Change vs. Religious Democratisation: The Rise of Sistani2.4.4. Imposed Consociation2.5. Research Gap and Contribution3. Chapter: Imagining Iraq’s ‘Muhasasa’ Consociational Democracy3.1. Introduction3.2. The Intra-Shia Rivalry in Post-2003 Iraq3.2.1. Authority and Governance in Shia Political Thought: Origins, Evolution, and Khomeinism3.2.2. Najaf’s New and Old Elites: Early Majoritarian Breakup3.2.3. The Iran Factor3.2.4. The (Un)divided Popular Mobilisation Forces: From Battlefields to Ballot Boxes3.2.5. Investigating the Intra-Shia Rivalry through Tishreen’s Protest Movement3.3. Modern Exploitation of Religious Identities3.3.1. Re-Constructing Post-2003 Iraq’s Sectarian Mobilisation3.3.2. Secularisation and Modernisation Thesis3.3.3. Modernity, A Factor of Religious Evolution3.3.4. Religious Worldviews3.4. Muhasasa’s Theoretical Rationale and Practical Implementation3.4.1. The Assumed Demographics3.4.2. Recognising Muhasasa’s Implementation and Exploiting its Unpopularity3.4.3. Sectarianism and Intra-Sectarianism Facilitated by Muhasasa3.5. Ingroup Legitimacy Rivalry3.5.1. Sadr’s Political-Religious Discourse3.6. The New Shia Majority-Rule3.6.1. The Imagined Homogenous Community3.6.2. Iraq’s Muhasasa and the Regional Sectarianisation3.7. Conclusion4. Chapter: The Dynamic Transformation of the Shia Political Camp4.1. Introduction4.2. The Early Majoritarian Schism4.2.1. The Early Najaf–Qom Theological Divide in Post-2003 Iraq4.2.2. The Incorporation of Iran’s Proxies into Iraq’s Political System4.3. The Exploitation and Limitations of Shia Victimhood4.4. Political Repositioning: Ideology versus Interests4.4.1. Sadr: Nationalist or Pragmatist?4.4.2. Maliki: State of Law versus Deep State4.4.3. Amiri and Khazali: The Dilemma of Paramilitarism and Politics4.5. Iran: The Ally, the Enemy, or the Neighbour?4.5.1. Najaf–Qom Shia Theological Quietist Rivalry4.5.2. Da‘wa: From Islamist Ideology to Communalism4.5.3. Badr and Supreme Council: Balancing Iran’s Changing Influence4.5.4. The Multilateral Intra-Shia Rivalry: The Sadrist Factor4.6. Popular Mobilisation Forces and Re-Emerging Shia Militancy4.7. Competition over Resources and Power4.8. Conclusion5. Chapter: Tishreen’s Shia Popular Rebellion against Shia Rule5.1. Introduction5.2. The Shiasation of Tishreen5.3. The Shadow of the Intra-Shia Political Rivalry over Tishreen5.3.1. Shia Constituents versus Shia Representatives5.3.2. The Sadrist Shadow over Tishreen5.4. Reshaping Iraq’s Intra-Shia Political Rivalry through Declining Iranian Influence5.4.1. Tishreen’s Anti-Iran Sentiment: Why and How?5.4.2. Post-Tishreen Iraq’s Reconciliation with the Arab World5.5. Silent or Accomplice Marja‘iyah?5.6. Tishreen versus Muhasasa: De-Legitimising the Consociational Rationale5.7. Political Change versus Political Deadlock5.7.1. Infiltrating Tishreen5.8. Conclusion6. Chapter: Conclusion Chapter6.1. Introduction6.2. Finding6.3. Contribution6.4. Recommendations6.4.1. Recommendations from Empirical Evidence6.4.2. Recommendations for Future Research6.5. Conclusion6.5.1. Consociational Reflections on the Intra-Shia Rivalry6.5.2. Reconstruction of Political Identity in Iraq’s Intra-Shia Rivalry6.5.3. Concluding Statement7. Bibliography7.1. Primary Data A (Speeches)7.2. Primary Data B (Interviews)7.3. Secondary Data8. Appendix8.1. List of Interviewees8.2. List of SpeechesIndex