Futures in Action

Carine Dartiguepeyrou is a political scientist and independent futurist. A consultant and teacher, she is an associate researcher at the Université Catholique de Lille, France.Michel Saloff-Coste founded and developed the Institut international de prospective sur les écosystèmes innovants, the Direction de la prospective and the International Foresight Research Network (IFRN). He is now special advisor to the President of the Université Catholique de Lille, France and a consultant in management, strategy and communications.

• Author Presentation xiiiIntroduction xxiiiCarine Dartiguepeyrou And Michel Saloff-CostePart 1 The Foresight of Futurists 1Chapter 1 How to Build Futures Consciousness and Resilience for Operational Foresight 3Sirkka Heinonen1.1 Introduction 31.2 Choice of approaches and methods for foresight in practice 41.3 Futures mean change – where and how to look for futures signals to build up futures resilience 7Chapter 2 A Strategic Foresight Framework for Anticipating Uncertainties in Tourism Industry 11Fawaz Abu Sitta2.1 Introduction 112.2 Strategic planning versus strategic foresight 122.3 Uncertainty management framework 142.3.1 Framing 142.3.2 Understanding 152.3.3 Exploring 172.3.4 Realizing 192.3.5 Designing 242.3.6 Shaping 262.4 Recommendations 26Chapter 3 Generative AI in the Newsroom: The Future of Journalism and Media 29Sylvia Gallusser3.1 Becoming a professional futurist 293.1.1 Career paths to becoming a futurist 293.1.2 From anxiety to driving force 313.1.3 Creating a professional foresight research practice 323.2 In action: applying foresight in action with a group of European journalists 343.2.1 Context of the request 343.2.2 A program of foresight in action 353.2.3 Challenges and key learnings 38Chapter 4 Leading a New Path with Foresight in China 41Lynn Lin And Bin Hu4.1 Foresight’s value is gradually being seen 414.2 Foresight practice demands a leap of faith 434.3 Fostering futures thinking as the foundation 444.4 Navigating foresight with patience and agility 454.5 Charting new business landscape in China with foresight 47Chapter 5 Creating Desirable Futures 49Carine Dartiguepeyrou5.1 The specifics of foresight in action 495.1.1 Strategic foresight 505.1.2 Foresight questioning 515.1.3 Revisiting the foresight triangle 515.2 The futurist’s tools: between tradition and innovation 525.2.1 The futurist’s range 525.2.2 Monitoring 525.2.3 Shared challenges 535.3 Sociocultural foresight 555.3.1 The importance of values 555.3.2 Bias or futurist culture? 565.3.3 A cultural paradigm shift? 565.4 Personal considerations 575.4.1 An affinity for alterity and singularity 575.4.2 Uniting across divisions 58Part 2 Foresight for Companies and Public Institutions 61Chapter 6 Foresight at Michelin: Evidence and Reflections 63Gaël Quéinnec6.1 The empirical meeting of new needs and qualifying resources 636.1.1 Collective foresight based on an influence approach 636.1.2 Reorganization creates a need to build visions 646.2 A predisposing career path 646.2.1 Training in the humanities 646.2.2 A career in strategic marketing 646.2.3 Operational and international legitimacy 656.3 My training in foresight 656.3.1 My main trainers and mentors: a bibliographical overview 656.4 Accelerators for a change in scale 666.4.1 First marker: the trend radar 666.4.2 Second marker: sustainable development metascenarios (SHAPES) 676.4.3 The increasing emergence of foresight in the company as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and other crises 686.5 Duty to warn, blind spot researcher, mental agility agent: what is the mission for Michelin foresight? 686.5.1 Purpose: preparing for the field of possibilities 686.5.2 What are the observable impacts? 696.5.3 The difficulty of assessing foresight 706.6 What deliverables? 716.6.1 For and with the intern 716.6.2 With external partners, according to a graduated scale of involvement, ranging from crossing visions to criticizing strategic marketing 716.7 What methods and resources? 716.7.1 Foresight requires a wide range of thinking and specific methods 716.7.2 Potential and experience 72Chapter 7 Bouygues Construction, Committed to a Desirable Future 73Virginie Alonzi7.1 Context 737.2 Foresight at Bouygues Construction 747.2.1 The creation and missions of the foresight department 747.2.2 Our approach 74Chapter 8 Brand Heritage, a Catalyst for Innovation and Transformation 79Cecilia Ercoli8.1 Introduction, the mission – what foresight? 798.2 Practice – which approach? 808.2.1 Methodologies used 808.2.2 More concretely, what kind of organization? What kind of project design? 818.3 Organic governance – how does the emergence of creation and innovation cope with the organization’s approval processes? 84Chapter 9 Decathlon Perspectives: Shaping the Future with Collective Intelligence 87Audrey Hespel9.1 An explorer of possible and desirable futures 879.2 Decathlon’s various foresight experiments 889.3 Obstacles to avoid when using foresight 899.4 Tools and sources of inspiration 909.5 Potential disruptions and future trends 91Chapter 10 Foresight at the Centre National d’Études Spatiales 93Sébastien Lombard10.1 Foresight methodologies and practices 9410.2 Memory and foresight monitoring 9610.3 Foresight and action 9710.4 Influences for tomorrow 99Part 3 Foresight at Universities 101Chapter 11 From Founding Institution to Collaborative Foresight at the Université Catholique de Lille 103Jean-Marc Assié And Louis-Marie Clouet11.1 The founding institution of a forward-looking university 10311.2 Foresight based on experimentation and innovation 10411.2.1 Where “rapid transitions” cross ethics 10411.2.2 Foresight of innovative ecosystems 10511.2.3 Design, creativity and foresight 10611.2.4 ECOPOSS “Osons l’éloge du futur” 10611.3 The paradoxes of foresight 10811.3.1 Short or long-term resource allocation? 10811.3.2 Illegitimate foresight with regard to academic requirements? 10811.3.3 How do you train in foresight? 10911.4 “Embedded” foresight to serve the university’s missions 10911.4.1 Reinforcing the teaching of foresight 10911.4.2 Reinforcing the contribution of futures in action, in support of the university’s strategy 11011.4.3 The coherent choice of a “work in progress” and collaborative approach 111Chapter 12 Operational Foresight at the University of Strasbourg 113Audrey Kost12.1 Introduction 11312.2 The foresight and strategy mission 11312.3 Three key players in foresight at the University of Strasbourg 11512.3.1 Catherine Florentz, Vice-President of foresight and strategic actions 11512.3.2 Audrey Kost, Director of the foresight and strategy mission 11612.3.3 Julien Weber, Strategy Consultant 11712.4 Foresight at the University of Strasbourg 11712.4.1 Practice at all levels 11712.4.2 An approach that began with major projects 11812.4.3 A dedicated department for an organic link between foresight and strategy 11912.4.4 A first presidency seminar 11912.5 In search of dedicated time 12012.6 Monitoring and key sources 120Chapter 13 Using Foresight to Drive Transformation: Building a Strategy After a Merger 121Pauline Innegraeve13.1 Shaking up the status quo 12113.2 Filling in the gaps 12213.2.1 Initial actions 12213.2.2 Academic influences 12313.3 Embarking on a journey in foresight 12313.4 The risks of the journey 12413.5 One pit stop before a new beginning 12513.6 Any candidates for the journey? 12813.7 The map room 130Part 4 Local Authority Foresight 133Chapter 14 Foresight and Public Action: The Case of Greater Lyon 135Pierre Houssais14.1 A basic question of public action: “where are we going?” 13514.1.1 First experience in Saint-Étienne: political foresight to persuade 13614.1.2 Grand Lyon: making foresight a cross-disciplinary tool for public action 13714.2 A culture of foresight unique to the Lyon Metropolis 13814.2.1 An old and still agile service 13814.2.2 The common good rather than commonplace 141Chapter 15 Rev3: A Regional Dynamic Combining Foresight and Action 143Frédéric Motte15.1 Introduction: qualifying rev3 14315.2 Back to basics: Jeremy Rifkin’s master plan 14415.3 Foresight and program documents to mark the life of rev3 14615.4 Foresight and strategic documents as a general framework for action 148Chapter 16 Isère 2030: Isère’s Administrative Project 151Séverine Battin16.1 Serving the public 15116.1.1 From social worker to head of local authority 15116.1.2 The local authority, a local community 15216.2 Foresight, a necessity for local communities 15216.2.1 An uncertain and complex environment 15216.2.2 Changing perspective 15216.2.3 Collectively preparing for change 15316.3 Implementing the approach 15416.3.1 An exploratory approach for the community 15416.3.2 Staying alert: foresight monitoring 15616.4 Foresight in the present 15716.4.1 “Isère 2030”, the backbone of the administrative project 15716.4.2 Spreading the culture of foresight 15816.4.3 Appropriation by teams, a catalyst for change 15916.4.4 Conditions for success and obstacles 159Chapter 17 Social Cohesion and Solidarity in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques in 2040 161Jean-Jacques Lasserre17.1 Territorial foresight initiated by Jean-Jacques Lasserre, President of the Pyrénées-Atlantiques 16117.1.1 A process led by elected representatives 16117.1.2 The process of choosing the foresight question 16217.2 A participatory foresight approach 16717.2.1 A futures in action participatory workshop 16717.2.2 What next? 169Reflection and Perspective on Foresight 171Carine DartiguepeyrouConclusion 179Michel Saloff-CosteReferences 185List of Authors 197Index 199