Perhaps more than ever, we need to invest in the study of the causes and consequences of crises. Since its founding in 1975, the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project has aimed to better equip academics, policymakers, and the next generation of engaged citizens to make sense of why crises arise and how they can be more effectively managed and prevented. The ICB Project’s data holdings consist of full-length qualitative case studies, along with an expanding range of quantitative datasets that include information regarding the characteristics of the states in crisis, crisis behavior, attempts at third-party crisis management, the role of nonstate actors, and the system-level context.A Century of International Crisis Behavior summarizes the evolving patterns of international crisis behavior in the more than 500 cases cataloged since 1918, provides an accounting of the state of the scholarship to make sense of the patterns, and presents new findings that advance our understanding. Chapters are grouped according to their level of analysis: studies of systems, dyads, and states. The authors highlight what we have learned and what we have yet to learn regarding the prevention, escalation, and de-escalation of international crises.
Jonathan Wilkenfeld is Professor Emeritus in the Department of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland.Kyle Beardsley is Professor of Political Science and Public Policy at Duke University.Patrick James is Dean’s Professor Emeritus of International Relations at the University of Southern California.
List of FiguresList of TablesAcknowledgmentsPrefaceI. Introduction and OverviewCh.1. Tracking a Century of International Crisis – Kyle Beardsley, Patrick James, and Jonathan WilkenfeldCh. 2. Historical and Emerging Trends in International Crisis Behavior – Kyle Beardsley and Jonathan WilkenfeldSummary of Section I – Patrick JamesII. The State of the Fielda. System LevelCh. 3. Alliances, Coalitions and International Relations – Daina Chiba and Yuan ZhuangCh. 4. Forced Migration Crises: A Rising Danger in World Politics – Hemda Beh-Yehuda and Rami Goldsteinb. Dyadic LevelCh. 5. Economic Interdependence and International Crises – Yuleng Zeng and Ali IsgandarovCh. 6. Nuclear Weapons and Deterrence in International Crises – Kyungwon SuhCh. 7. Protracted Conflict and Crisis Escalation – Luba Levin-Banchekc. State LevelCh. 8. Diversionary Theory and Crises in World Politics – Emezet F. Kisangani and Jeffrey PickeringCh. 9. Crisis Type Matters: Implications for Ethnicity and the Democratic Peace – Meirav Mishali-Ram and Hemda Ben-YehudaCh. 10. Leaders, Regime Type, and International Crises – Edward Yang and Jonathan KellerSummary of Section II – Patrick JamesIII. New Findingsa. System LevelCh. 11. Civil Wars and the Clustering and Contagion of International Crises – Mehmet Erdem Arslan and Kristian Skrede GleditschCh. 12. A Review of International Organizations and International Crises – Yun Jung Yang and Zorzeta Bakakib. Dyadic LevelCh. 13. Near Crisis Dynamics in the Shadow of Nuclear Weapons – Edward Gonzalez, Miriam Barnum, and Patrick JamesCh. 14. Cultural Influences on Mediation in International Crises – Molly InmanCh. 15. Mediation Styles and Crisis Recurrence – Constantin Ruhec. State LevelCh. 16. Exogenous Factors and the Bargaining Process in International Crises – Vesna Danilovic and Joe ClareCh. 17. What is Escalation? Measuring Crisis Dynamics in International Relations with Human- and LLM-Generated Event Data – Rex W. Douglass, Erik Gartzke, Jon R. Lindsay, J. Andrés Gannon, and Thomas Leo SchererCh. 18. Escalation Management in Gray Zone International Crises – Jonathan Wilkenfeld and Egle E. MurauskaiteCh. 19. Deterrence in the Early Stages of Crisis – Kyle Beardsley, Jonathan Wilkenfeld, Phoung Pham, Corinne DeFrancisci, Diana Partridge, and Megan RutterSummary of Section III – Patrick JamesIV. Summing Up and Moving ForwardCh. 20. A Systemist Mapping of a Century of Crisis – Patrick James
“A Century of International Crisis Behavior extends the rich International Crisis Behavior (ICB) dataset for the academic and policy communities, using core variables and adding new cases. There are very few projects that have sustained data collection for more than forty years. The quality of the editors and of their data collection is the gold standard in international conflict, crisis, and war.”