Understanding Near Crises and Escalation in World Politics

Steven E. Lobell is a Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Utah, USA.Patrick James is the Dean’s Professor Emeritus of International Relations at the University of Southern California, USA.Scott A. Silverstone is a Professor of International Relations at the United States Military Academy at West Point.Victor Asal is the Director of the Center for Policy Research and Professor of Political Science at the University at Albany, USA.Kyle Beardsley is a Professor of Political Science at Duke University, USA, the Director of the Triangle Institute for Security Studies, and the Co-Director of the International Crisis Behavior Data Project.Edward Gonzalez is an Instructor of Political Science at Compton College, USA.Norrin M. Ripsman is the Monroe J. Rathbone Distinguished Professor of International Relations at Lehigh University, USA.Shikshya Adhikari works as a Research Associate. She has experience working with advanced statistical techniques and data analysis tools. She is a mixed-methods researcher. She has worked for humanitarian response projects. She has an M.A. in Political Science and an M.S. in Sociology.Suzanne Weedon Levy currently serves as the Director of Grants for a non-profit in New York’s Capital Region. Prior to transitioning to the non-profit sector, she spent almost a decade as the Research Director of the Project on Violent Conflict (PVC) at the University at Albany, where she focused on the behavior of terrorist and insurgent non-state actors.Grace Sorci currently works as a Senior Research Associate at The Chicago Lighthouse. At the time of this project, she served as a Research Aide and Project Supervisor for the Project on Violent Conflict (PVC) at the University at Albany.Nakissa Jahanbani is an Adjunct Lecturer at the Pennsylvania State University and a Senior Analyst at the Afghanistan War Commission in the Senate. Her research focuses on how states partner with violent non-state actors.Anne van Wijk obtained her PhD in Political Science and International Relations from the University of Southern California in 2022. In her dissertation, van Wijk discusses the constraints under which states operate as members of international organizations and untangles how and when international cooperation is likely to break down.

• Chapter 1: Near Crises and the Process of Escalation in World Politics Chapter 2: Near Crises and Escalation Processes: A Systemist Exposition Chapter 3: Dissecting the Dynamics of Near Crisis: Introducing the Diplomatic, Informational, Military, and Economic (DIME) Moves Dataset Chapter 4: Postures and Portents: Action-Level Predictors of Near Crisis Escalation Chapter 5: Terrorist and Insurgent Organizations in Near Crises: Who Participates and Why? Chapter 6: Implications of Near Crises for the Policy Practitioner Community Chapter 7: What Have We Learned?

'Understanding Near Crises and Escalation in World Politics introduces the concept of "near crisis" to address a critical yet often overlooked issue: the policy decisions and actions taken in the prelude to crises or military escalations. The framework offers a fresh perspective that equips policymakers, and scholars, with valuable tools to mitigate entanglements before they escalate into full crises.'Juan E. Battaleme Martinez, Secretary for Argentinean Defense International Relations, Ministry of Defense'Near crises occupy the space where confrontations in international crises can escalate or de-escalate. In this outstanding first book-length investigation of near crises in world politics, the systemist method for graphically conveying arguments is employed to provide insights for academics and practitioners who seek understanding of the escalation dynamic.' Jonathan Wilkenfeld, Professor Emeritus of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland and Director of the ICONS simulation project'Understanding Near Crises and Escalation in World Politics is an indispensable read for national security practitioners. They now have the tools to diagnose near-crises conditions and recognize possible catalysts for escalation toward crises and even war. How and when policymakers use instruments of power can make a difference in stabilizing a complex world.' Sonya Finley, Colonel (Retired), Professor of Strategy, US National War College'By focusing on why and how “near crises” escalate into full-blown conflicts, this book contributes to improving our collective understanding of escalation dynamics. These insights are important to both better prevent crises and conflicts and to strengthen deterrence. An important read for scholars and policy-makers alike.'Benedetta Berti-Alberti, Director, Policy Planning, Office of the Secretary General, NATO