Structural Reliability in Civil Engineering

Wei-Liang Jin, PhD, is a professor in the College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China. For a number of years, he has been engaged in research on full life analysis of engineering structures, basic performance of concrete structures, theory of masonry structures, and their applications. He has successfully undertaken over 100 research projects for several organizations and has published over 500 papers, ten academic monographs, and three textbooks in domestic and foreign academic journals. Qian Ye, PhD, received his doctoral degree in structural engineering from Zhejiang University in 2013. Since then, he has published nearly 20 papers and has led three department level projects. His research areas include steel structures and offshore floating structures. Yong Bai, PhD, is a professor and doctoral supervisor in the Institute of Structural Engineering, School of Construction and Engineering, Zhejiang University. He is a member of Zhejiang Province’s Hundred Talents Plan and the American Society of Shipbuilding and Marine Engineers. In 2000, he won the Best Paper Award at the International Conference on Ocean Mechanics and Polar Engineering.

• List of Figures xiiiList of Tables xixPreface xxiiiAcknowledgments xxvNotations xxvii1 Introduction 11.1 An Overview of the Development of Structural Reliability Theory 31.1.1 Method of the Degree of Reliability Calculated 31.1.2 Reliability Method of Structural Systems 101.1.3 Load and Load Combination Method 101.1.4 Engineering Applications 151.2 Basic Concepts 161.2.1 Reliability and Degree of Reliability 161.2.2 Uncertainty 171.2.3 Random Variables, Random Functions and Random Processes 181.2.4 Functional Function and Limit State Equation 181.2.5 Reliability Index and Failure Probability 191.2.6 Member Reliability and System Reliability 201.2.7 Time-Dependent Reliability and Time-Independent Reliability 201.3 Contents of this Book 21References 212 Method of Uncertainty Analysis 332.1 Classification of Uncertainty 342.1.1 Classification on Uncertainty Type 342.1.2 Classification on Uncertainty Characteristics 352.1.3 Classification on Form of Manifestation 352.1.4 Classification on Uncertainty Attributes 362.2 Probability Analysis Methods 362.2.1 Classical Probability Analysis Method 362.2.2 Bayes Probability Method 372.3 Fuzzy Mathematical Analysis Method 372.3.1 Definition 372.3.2 Mode of Expression 392.4 Gray Theory Analysis Method 402.4.1 Basic Concept 402.4.2 Case Study 412.5 Relative Information Entropy Analysis Method 432.6 Artificial Intelligence Analysis Method 452.6.1 Neural Networks 452.6.2 Support Vector Machine 472.7 Example: Risk Evaluation of Construction with Temporary Structure Formwork Support 532.7.1 Basic Information of the Formwork Support Structure 532.7.2 Establishment of Construction Risk Evaluation System 542.7.3 Index Weighting 572.7.4 Expert Scoring Results and Risk Evaluation Grades 592.7.5 Evaluation of a Fastener-Type Steel Pipe Scaffold 612.7.6 Discussion and Summary Analysis 65References 653 Reliability Analysis Method 673.1 First-Order Second-Moment Method 713.1.1 Central Point Method 713.1.2 Checking Point Method 743.1.3 Evaluation 783.2 Second-Order Second-Moment Method 793.2.1 Breitung Method 793.2.2 Laplace Asymptotic Method 823.2.3 Maximum Entropy Method 853.2.4 Optimal Quadratic Approximation Method 903.3 Reliability Analysis of Random Variables Disobeying Normal Distribution 923.3.1 R-F Method 933.3.2 Rosenblatt Transformation 943.3.3 P-H Method 973.4 Responding Surface Method 993.4.1 Response Surface Methodology for Least Squares Support Vector Machines (LS-SVM) 1013.4.2 Examples 105References 1134 Numerical Simulation for Reliability 1154.1 Monte-Carlo Method 1164.1.1 Generation of Random Numbers 1184.1.2 Test of Random Number Sequences 1204.1.3 Generation of Non-Uniform Random Numbers 1204.2 Variance Reduction Techniques 1214.2.1 Dual Sampling Technique 1224.2.2 Conditional Expectation Sampling Technique 1234.2.3 Importance Sampling Technique 1234.2.4 Stratified Sampling Method 1264.2.5 Control Variates Method 1274.2.6 Correlated Sampling Method 1284.3 Composite Important Sampling Method 1294.3.1 Basic Method 1294.3.2 Composite Important Sampling 1324.3.3 Calculation Steps 1354.4 Importance Sampling Method in V Space 1364.4.1 V Space 1364.4.2 Importance Sampling Area 1384.4.3 Importance Sampling Function 1414.4.4 Simulation Procedure 1434.4.5 Evaluation 1434.5 SVM Importance Sampling Method 144References 1455 Reliability of Structural Systems 1475.1 Failure Mode of Structural System 1485.1.1 Structural System Model 1485.1.2 Solution 1525.1.3 Idealization of Structural System Failure 1555.1.4 Practical Analysis of Structural System Failure 1605.2 Calculation Methods for System Reliability 1615.2.1 System Reliability Boundary 1615.2.2 Implicit Limit State—Response Surface 1695.2.3 Complex Structural System 1735.2.4 Physically-Based Synthesis Method 1805.3 Example: Reliability of Offshore Fixed Platforms 1815.3.1 Overview 1815.3.2 Calculation Model and Single Pile Bearing Capacity 1825.3.3 Probability Analysis for the Bearing Capacity of a Single Pile 1875.3.4 Bearing Capacity and Reliability of Offshore Platform Structural Systems 1915.4 Analysis on the Reliability of a Semi-Submersible Platform System 1975.4.1 Overview 1975.4.2 Uncertainty Analysis 1995.4.3 Evaluation of System Reliability 2005.4.3.1 Analytical Process and Evaluation 2005.4.3.2 Reliability Calculation of Main Components 2025.4.3.3 Reliability Calculation for Local Nodes 2045.4.3.4 Calculation of Overall Platform Reliability 206References 2076 Time-Dependent Structural Reliability 2116.1 Time Integral Method 2146.1.1 Basic Concept 2146.1.2 Time-Dependent Reliability Transformation Method 2176.2 Discrete Method 2186.2.1 Known Number of Discrete Events 2196.2.2 Unknown Number of Discrete Events 2216.2.3 Return Period 2226.2.4 Risk Function 2236.3 Calculation of Time-Dependent Reliability 2256.3.1 Introduction 2256.3.2 Sampling Methods for Unconditional Failure Probability 2276.3.3 First-Order Second-Moment Method 2296.4 Structural Dynamic Analysis 2306.4.1 Randomness of Structural Dynamics 2306.4.2 Some Problems Involving Stationary Random Processes 2316.4.3 Random Response Spectrum 2336.5 Fatigue Analysis 2346.5.1 General Formulas 2346.5.2 S-N Model 2356.5.3 Fracture Mechanics Model 2376.5.4 Example: Fatigue Reliability of an Offshore Jacket Platform 2386.5.5 Example: Fatigue Reliability of a Submarine Pipeline and Analysis of its Parameters 2496.5.5.1 Introduction 2496.5.5.2 Analytical Process 2496.5.5.3 Finite Element Model 2506.5.5.4 Random Lift Model 2506.5.5.5 Structural Modal Analysis 2536.5.5.6 Random Vibration Response of Suspended Pipelines 2546.5.5.7 Random Fatigue Life and Fatigue Reliability Analysis of a Suspended Pipeline 2576.5.5.8 Sensitivity Analysis of Random Vibration Influencing Factors of a Suspended Pipeline 2606.5.6 Example: Fatigue Reliability of Deep-Water Semi-Submersible Platform Structures 2676.5.6.1 Analytical Process for Fatigue Reliability 2676.5.6.2 Fatigue Reliability Analysis of Key Platform Joints 2676.5.6.3 Sensitivity Analysis of Fatigue Parameters 276References 2817 Load Combination on Reliability Theory 2857.1 Load Combination 2867.1.1 General Form 2867.1.2 Discrete Random Process 2897.1.3 Simplified Method 2927.2 Load Combination Factor 2967.2.1 Peak Superposition Method 2977.2.2 Crossing Analysis Method 2987.2.3 Combination Theory with Poisson Process as a Simplified Model 3007.2.4 Square Root of the Sum of the Squares (SRSS) 3027.2.5 Use of a Combination of Local Extrema to Form a Maximum Value 3027.3 Calculation of Partial Coefficient of Structural Design 3087.3.1 Expression of Design Partial Coefficient 3097.3.2 Determination of Partial Coefficient in Structural Design 3107.3.3 Determination of Load/Resistance Partial Coefficient 3117.4 Determination of Load Combination Coefficient and Design Expression 3147.4.1 Design Expression Using Combined Value Coefficients 3157.4.2 No Reduction Factor in the Design Expression 3177.4.3 Method for Determining Load Combination Coefficient in Ocean Engineering 3207.5 Example: Path Probability Model for the Durability of a Concrete Structure 3237.5.1 Basic Concept 3237.5.2 Multipath Probability Model 3257.5.3 Probability Prediction Model Featuring Chloride Erosion 3277.5.4 Probability Prediction Model for Concrete Carbonation 3287.5.5 Probability Prediction Model under the Combined Action of Carbonation and Chloride Ions 3317.5.6 Corrosion Propagation in a Steel Bar 3327.5.7 Cracking of the Protective Layer and Determination of Crack Width 3347.5.8 Bearing Capacity of Corroded Concrete Components 3357.5.9 Engineering Example 3377.5.9.1 Corrosion of Steel Bars in a Chloride Environment 3377.5.9.2 Corrosion of Steel Bar Under the Combined Action of Carbonation and Chloride Corrosion 342References 3488 Application of Reliability Theory in Specifications 3538.1 Requirements of Structural Design Codes 3568.1.1 Requirements of Structural Design 3568.1.2 Classification of Actions 3578.1.3 Target Reliability 3588.1.4 Limit State of Structural Design 3618.2 Expression of Structural Reliability in Design Specifications 3638.2.1 Design Expression of Partial Coefficients 3638.2.2 Design Expression of Ultimate Limit State 3658.2.3 Design Expression of Serviceability Limit State 3678.2.4 Design Expression of Durability Limit State 3688.3 Example: Target Reliability and Calibration of Bridges 3718.3.1 Basic Issues 3718.3.2 Parameter Analysis 3728.3.3 Calibration Target Reliability 3748.3.4 Operating Conditions and Parameters 3758.3.5 Load Effect Ratio 3758.3.6 Reliability Calibration Process 3788.3.7 Results of Reliability Calibration Calculation 3798.4 Reliability Analysis of Human Influence 3818.4.1 Parameters of Human Influence 3818.4.2 Influence of Human Error on Construction 3838.4.3 Human Error Rate, and Degree and Distribution of Human Error Influence 3848.4.4 Simulation of Human Error in Construction 3878.4.5 Example: Support System for a Ten-Storey Beamless Floor Structure 3948.4.6 Discussion 398References 398Index 403