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Financial crises are recurring phenomena that can cause significant economic and societal loss. This book is therefore vitally important as it analyzes why and how financial crises occur, the extent of their impact, and what can be done to prevent their recurrence or reduce the damage they cause. Comprising original and never-before-published papers by distinguished economists, this book offers insights about lessons that were or should have been learned from recent outbreaks of such crises in East Asia and elsewhere. Recent Financial Crises also presents a set of econometric studies of issues such as labor market behavior, investment and productivity, and exchange rate adjustments. Although China did not have a crisis, its economic behavior was closely monitored in order to see if that had any effect on the crisis conditions. In this respect, the book contains an estimation of China's 'core' inflation rate, as well as its 'true' cost of living index, over a 20-year period spanning the Asian financial crisis. In general, collectively, the studies point to a need for ongoing structural reforms to minimize vulnerability to crises or soften their impact. The necessity for resorting to viable safety nets is also stressed. Policymakers and central bankers will find this book of great value, as will scholars and researchers at many levels of academe, involved in financial, business, and international economics.
Edited by the late Lawrence R. Klein, former Benjamin Franklin Professor of Economics Emeritus, University of Pennsylvania, US and 1980 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences and Tayyeb Shabbir, Associate Professor of Finance, California State University, Dominguez Hills and Adjunct Associate Professor of Finance, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, US
Contents:IntroductionLawrence R. Klein and Tayyeb ShabbirPART I: ANALYSIS OF CURRENCY CRISES1. Asia Before and After the Financial Crisis of 1997–98: A Retrospective EssayLawrence R. Klein and Tayyeb Shabbir2. Indicators and Analysis of Vulnerability to Currency Crisis: ThailandPranee Tinakorn PART II: CURES AND REFORMS 3. The Next Financial CrisisBarry Eichengreen 4. Capital Controls, Financial Crises and Cures: Simulations with an Econometric Model for Malaysia Lawrence R. Klein, Roberto S. Mariano and Süleyman Özmucur5. The Case of the Missing Market: The Bond Market and Why it Matters for Financial DevelopmentRichard J. Herring and Nathporn Chatusripitak PART III: ANALYTICAL ISSUES PERTAINING TO THE RECENT CRISES6. Investment, Growth and Productivity during the East Asian Financial CrisisF. Gerard Adams and Tayyeb Shabbir7. What Really Happened to Thai Wage Rates During the East Asian Financial Crisis?Jere R. Behrman, Anil B. Deolalikar and Pranee Tinakorn8. Exchange Rate or Wage Changes in International Adjustment? Japan and China versus the United StatesRonald I. McKinnon9. Adjustment to China’s CPI-Based Inflation to Account for ‘True’ Cost of Living, 1993–2004Lawrence R. Klein, Huiqing Gao and Liping Tao10. Estimating China’s Core Inflation RateDeming WuIndex