Probabilities

PETER OLOFSSON, PHD, is Associate Professor of Mathematics at Trinity University. Dr. Olofsson is an active researcher in the field of applied probability and is an experienced teacher. He is the author of Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes, also from Wiley.

• Preface v1 Computing Probabilities: Right Ways and Wrong Ways 1The Probabilist 1The Probabilist's Toys and Language 4The Probabilist's Rule Book 9Independence, Airplanes, and Russian Peasants 14Conditional Probability, Swedish TV, and British Courts 20Liar, Liar 24Total Probability, Used Cars, and Tennis Matches 28Combinatorics, Pastrami, and Poetry 33The von Trapps and the Binomial Distribution 37Final Word 432 Surprising Probabilities: When Intuition Struggles 45Boys, Girls, Aces, and Colored Cards 45Goats and Gloats 50Happy Birthday 52Typical Atypicalities 57Strategies, Shopping, and Spaghetti Westerns 61The British Snob and I 65Final Word 703 Tiny Probabilities: Why Are They So Hard to Escape? 71Probable Improbabilities 71Saddam and I 75Taking Tiny Risks 80A Million-to-One Shot, Doc, Million to One! 82Monsieur Poisson and the Mysterious Number 37 84Clumps in Space 89Final Word 914 Backward Probabilities: The Reverend Bayes to Our Rescue 93Driving Miss Daisy 93Bayes, Balls, and Boys (and Girls) 96Bayes and My Green Card 98Objection Your Honor 103Final Word 1125 Beyond Probabilities: What to Expect 115Great Expectations 115Good Things Come to Those Who Wait 123Expect the Unexpected 129Size Matters (and Length, and Age) 132Deviant Behavior 138Final Word 1436 Inevitable Probabilities: Two Fascinating Mathematical Results 145Alea Iacta Est, Over and Over 145Even-Steven? The Law Misunderstood 149Coin Tosses and Freeway Congestion 155Let's Get Serious 162Bells and Bread 166How a Toronto Quincunx Changed My Life 171Final Word 1737 Gambling Probabilities: Why Donald Trump Is Richer than You 175French Letters 175Roulette: A Classy Way to Waste Your Money 179Craps: Not so Dicey After All 184Blackjack: Money for Mnemonics 187Math for Losers 193Win Money and Lose Friends 200Final Word 2108 Guessing Probabilities: Enter the Statisticians 211Lies, Damned Lies, and Beautiful Lies? 2114 out of 10 Like the President 19 Times out of 20 215Polls Gone Wild 220The Lawsuit and the Lurker 225Football Players and Geyser Eruptions 230Snooping in the Abbot’s Garden 237Final Word 2429 Faking Probabilities: Computer Simulation 245Mahogany Dice and Modular Arithmetic 245Random and Not-So-Random Digits 252Number One Is Number One 253Is Random Really Random? 256Final Word 261Index 263