New Answers to Old Questions

Aaron Connelly is Senior Fellow for Southeast Asian Politics and Foreign Policy at the IISS. Based in the Singapore office, his research focuses on Indonesia, Myanmar, ASEAN, and US policy in the region. Prior to joining the IISS, Aaron was the first director of the Southeast Asia Project at the Lowy Institute in Sydney. Earlier in his career, he worked as a Fulbright scholar and visiting fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Jakarta. He is a graduate of Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service.Shona Loong is Associate Fellow for Southeast Asian Politics and Foreign Policy at the IISS. She works on the IISS Myanmar Conflict Map microsite, contributing analyses and shaping its overall direction. Shona holds a DPhil in human geography from the University of Oxford and is currently a senior scientist in political geography at the University of Zurich. Her research focuses on conflict, peacebuilding, and the politics of development in Myanmar and its borderlands.

• Authors Acknowledgements Abbreviations Maps IntroductionOrganisation of this bookWhy Myanmar mattersChapter One: The relationship between the armed forces and the state The origins of the TatmadawThe emergence of the NLDTatmadaw–NLD accommodationThe NLD in governmentConclusionChapter Two: The relationship between the centre and the periphery‘Race’ during British colonisation Ethnic relations before independence Insurgencies in Cold War Burma Solidarity, ceasefires and co-optation The USDP and NLD years ConclusionChapter Three: The relationship between Myanmar and the worldPositive (and negative) non-alignmentForeign relations under the SLORC and SPDCPartial liberalisation under Thein SeinAung San Suu Kyi as State CounsellorConclusionChapter Four: The relationship between Myanmar’s past and its futureFrom peaceful protest to armed resistanceMyanmar’s new chapterConclusionEpilogue StalemateThree scenariosWestern disengagement, Asian fearsDeeper currentsA closing window of opportunity Notes Index

‘A significant contribution to understanding the complex and inter-related dynamics at play in Myanmar today’.Dr Marty Natalegawa, former foreign minister of Indonesia‘New Answers to Old Questions provides a clear-eyed and concise assessment of how the coup and its aftermath have shifted perceptions and attitudes inside and outside Myanmar.’Moe Thuzar, Senior Fellow, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute‘Aaron Connelly and Shona Loong have a deep knowledge of Myanmar and its complexities. They have written a timely book on this tragic country.’Professor Tommy Koh, National University of Singapore‘This is a must-read assessment of one of Asia’s most troubling strategic and political crises. The authors remind us that there is a narrow window of opportunity when greater support to the democratic resistance in Myanmar could lead to a much better future. Their practical insights about how best to respond should be looked at seriously by policymakers in the region and from around the world.’Professor Nicholas Farrelly, University of Tasmania