Models for Financing, Cost and Risk Assessment

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• Preface xi1 Austria 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Concept 21.3 Financing 21.4 Cost Calculation 31.4.1 Basic Principles of Cost Calculation 31.4.2 Cost Assessment System 41.4.2.1 Basic Costs 51.4.2.2 Cost Coefficients for Value Adjustment and Inflation 71.4.2.3 Cost Coefficients for Risks 71.4.2.4 Cost Coefficients for Preliminary Monetary Adjustment 71.5 Cost Coefficients for Risks Corresponding to the Value of the ÖGG-Guideline 2005 71.5.1 Structure of the Cost Coefficients for Risks According to Project Phases 81.5.2 Structure of the Cost Coefficients for Risks According to Risk Spheres 81.5.3 Levels Used to Estimate the Cost Coefficients for Risks 91.5.4 Reference Values for Cost Coefficients for Risks – Planning Phase 101.5.4.1 Cost Coefficient UE 101.5.4.2 Cost Coefficient UB 111.5.5 Reference Values for Cost Coefficients for Risks – Execution Phase 121.6 Control 121.6.1 Project Cost Control 121.6.2 Project Cost Control in the Annual Control Loop 131.6.3 Project Phases 141.6.4 Levels of Cost Planning 141.6.5 Project Structuring 161.7 Change Management 161.8 Cost Coefficients for Risks Corresponding to the Value of the ÖGG-Guideline 2016 16Abbreviations 18References 182 Germany 192.1 Introduction 192.2 Plan for Maintaining and Expanding Rail Infrastructure 202.3 The 2030 Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan 202.3.1 Principles 202.3.2 The Key Changes Under the Requirements Plan Implementation Agreement 212.4 Financing 232.4.1 New Construction and Upgrades 232.4.2 Investment in Replacement Infrastructure on the Existing Network 252.4.3 Cost Breakdown on New Constructions and Upgrades and Replacement 262.5 Costs 272.5.1 Principles for Calculating Costs Based on the Final Report of the Reform Commission 272.5.2 Work Breakdown Structure for a Project 272.5.3 Determining the Basic Costs 292.5.3.1 Estimation of Construction Costs in the Preliminary Design Phase (‘Lph 1+2’, Section 55, HOAI) 292.5.3.2 Calculation of Construction Costs in the Final Design Phase (‘Lph 3+4’, Section 55, HOAI) 292.5.3.3 Design Cost Estimate in the Preliminary Design Phase (‘Lph 1+2’, Section 55, HOAI) 302.5.3.4 Calculation of design costs in the final design phase (‘Lph 3+4’, Section 55, HOAI) 302.5.4 Financial Contingency Reserve for Risks and Unpredicted Events 302.5.5 Inflation 312.5.6 Determining Total Costs in the Course of a Project 322.6 Risk Management 342.6.1 Corporate Risk Management 342.6.2 Project Risk Management 362.6.2.1 Openly Addressing Rather Than Suppressing Risks 372.6.2.2 A Realistic Perception Versus Forced Optimism 392.6.2.3 Acting Early to Manage Crises Rather Than Firefighting 392.6.2.4 Creating Opportunities 392.6.2.5 Timely Use of Communication Channels 39Abbreviations 40Further Reading 403 Norway 433.1 Concept, Background, and a Description of the Follo Line Project 433.1.1 Objective 433.1.2 The National Transportation Plan (NTP) 433.1.3 Follo Line Project 453.1.4 Responsibilities 473.1.5 Project Strategy 473.2 Finance 483.2.1 Structure of the Cost Estimate 493.3 Cost 513.4 Project Schedule 523.5 Risk Management 533.5.1 Identify Risk 533.5.2 Quantify Risk 543.5.3 Risk Treatment 543.5.4 Follow-Up and Report 543.6 Controlling 563.6.1 Progress, Schedule, and Cost Control 563.6.2 Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) 563.6.3 Project Phases 563.6.4 Progress, Schedule, and Cost Control 563.6.5 Planning Basis 563.6.6 Commitment Control 563.6.7 Estimated Cost at Completion 583.7 Trend and Change Control for the Project 583.7.1 Change Control 58Abbreviations 60Further Reading 604 Slovenia 614.1 Introduction 614.2 Responsibilities 624.2.1 Railway Infrastructure Investments 624.2.2 Infrastructure Management 634.3 Planning Background 634.4 Development Goals 644.5 Financing Sources 654.5.1 State Budget 654.5.2 EU Grants 664.6 Cost Estimates 664.7 Risk Management 684.8 Controlling and Reporting 704.8.1 Investment Documentation 724.8.2 EU Funds 724.9 Project Second Track Divaèa–Koper 734.9.1 Concept, Background, and Description of the Project 734.9.1.1 Objective 734.9.1.2 Transportation Strategy and National Programme 734.9.1.3 Project Description 734.9.1.4 Status of the Project 764.9.1.5 Responsibilities 774.9.2 Financing 784.9.3 Project Phases 794.9.4 Project Cost Estimate 804.9.4.1 Elaborating Basic Costs 804.9.4.2 Cost Estimations for Tunnels T1 and T2 – Occurrence of Karst Phenomena 824.9.5 Project Contingencies 874.9.6 Cost Estimate Overview 904.9.7 Sensitivity Analysis and Risk Assessment 914.9.7.1 Sensitivity Analysis 914.9.7.2 Probabilistic Risk Analysis 914.9.7.3 Qualitative Risk Analyses 934.9.8 Controlling 94Abbreviations 995 Switzerland 1015.1 Introduction 1015.2 Responsibilities 1015.2.1 The Principal 1025.2.2 The Constructors 1025.2.3 The Operating Companies 1035.3 Financing by the FinöV Fund (1998–2015) 1035.3.1 Revenues from Duties and Taxes 1045.3.2 The Advance 1045.3.3 Inflation 1045.3.4 Financing Terms 1055.4 Financing by BIF (from 2016) 1065.4.1 Functioning of the Fund and Main Features of Railway Infrastructure Financing 1065.4.2 Revenues from Duties and Taxes 1075.4.3 The Advance 1085.4.4 Inflation 1085.4.5 Cost Calculation According to FOT Guidelines 1085.5 Risks 1095.5.1 Principle 1095.5.2 Intention 1095.5.3 Risks and Tasks 1095.5.4 Procedure 1105.5.4.1 Risk Identification 1105.5.4.2 Risk Evaluation 1105.5.4.3 Risk Assessment 1115.5.4.4 Risk Strategy 1115.5.4.5 Documentation of Risk Management 1115.6 Costs 1125.6.1 Presumed End Cost 1125.6.2 Presumed End Costs and Risk Potentials of the Gotthard Axis (Gotthard and Ceneri Base Tunnels) 1125.6.3 Controlling the Performance, Deadlines, and Costs 1135.6.4 Project Structure Plan 1135.6.5 Phase Structure 1135.6.6 Cost Types 1135.6.7 Performance Control 1135.6.8 Performance Reference Basis 1145.6.9 Performance Situation and Prognosis 1155.6.10 Order Control 1155.6.11 Cost Control 1155.6.12 Billing 1155.6.13 Change Management – Process Flow of the Change Procedure 115Abbreviations 116DETEC: Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy, and Communications Terms and Definitions 117Further Reading 1216 Brenner Base Tunnel: Transnational Project between Austria and Italy 1236.1 Brenner Base Tunnel Project 1236.1.1 Project Content: Studies, Planning, Approvals 1236.2 Approval Phase and Financing 1266.2.1 Approvals and Financing in Italy 1266.2.2 Approvals and Financing in Austria 1266.2.3 European Approval and Financing 1276.2.3.1 EU Budget and TEN-T Programme 1276.2.3.2 EU Institutions Involved in Funding 1286.2.3.3 Structure of the European Funding 1286.2.3.4 TEN-T Programme 2007–2013 and Former Programmes 1296.2.3.5 CEF Programme 2014–2020 1296.3 Cost Models 1296.3.1 Cost Calculation and Risk Provision in Italy 1296.3.2 Calculation of Total Costs, Including Risk Provision, Adjustment for Inflation, and Preliminary Cost Adjustment in Austria 1306.4 Cost Calculation and Risk Provision for the BBT 1306.4.1 Calculation of Risk Provision for Identifiable and Quantifiable Risks 1316.4.2 Calculation of Risk Provision According to the ÖGG Directive 135Abbreviations 136References 1367 Lyon–Turin: Transnational Project between Italy and France 1397.1 Concept 1397.1.1 Objective 1397.1.2 The TEN-T Trans-European Transport Network 1397.1.3 The Project 1397.1.4 Responsibilities 1417.1.5 Finance 1427.2 Costs 1437.3 Risk Provision 1437.4 Control 1447.5 Variation Procedures 145Abbreviations 145Further Reading 1458 Conclusion: Essential Elements of Cost and Risk Management 147Past and Present Participants 151

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