Mapping Disease Transmission Risk

Enriching Models Using Biogeography and Ecology

Inbunden, Engelska, 2015

AvA. Townsend Peterson,University of Kansas) Peterson, A. Townsend (University Distinguished Professor,A Townsend Peterson

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A. Townsend Peterson, one of the pioneers of ecological niche modeling, presents a synthesis that illuminates new and more effective infectious disease mapping methods. His work - the culmination of twelve years of refinement - breaks new ground by integrating biogeographic and ecological factors with spatial models. Aimed at seasoned epidemiologists and public health experts, this interdisciplinary book explains the conceptual and technical underpinnings of Peterson's approach while simultaneously describing the potentially enormous benefits of his modeling method. Peterson treats disease transmission areas for what they are - distributions of species. The book argues that complex, fragmented, and highly irregular disease patterns can only be understood when underlying environmental drivers are considered. The result is an elegant modeling approach that challenges static spatial models and provides a framework for recasting disease mapping. Anyone working in the area of disease transmission, particularly those employing predictive maps, will find Peterson's book both inspiring and indispensable.

Produktinformation

Utgivningsdatum2015-01-21
Mått178 x 254 x 21 mm
Vikt544 g
FormatInbunden
SpråkEngelska
Antal sidor224
FörlagJohns Hopkins University Press
ISBN9781421414737

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PrefaceAcknowledgments1. IntroductionEcology and BiogeographyThis BookConclusionsPart I: Distributional Ecology2. General Conceptual Framework for Species' DistributionsHistorical BackgroundA General Schema of Distributional EcologyDisease SystemsConclusions3. Status of Data for Understanding Disease DistributionsDisease Case-Occurrence Data SetsRelevant Biodiversity Occurrence Data SetsGeoreferencingThe Meaning of No RecordsConclusions4. Current Tools for Understanding Disease DistributionsThe Current ToolkitShortcomings of the Current MethodologiesConclusionsPart II: Disease Modeling Basics5. Modifications to the Basic FrameworkDisease PeculiaritiesReal-World Examples: West Nile Virus and OthersImplications for Disease ModelingConclusions6. Modeling Components versus OutcomesDisease Transmission Systems as Sets of Interacting SpeciesBlack-Box ApproachesComponent-Based ApproachesCombined ApproachesConclusions7. Space-Only versus Space-and-Environment ModelsExamples and IllustrationsContrasting the Two Types of ModelsConclusionsPart III: Preparing the Data8. Garbage-In-Garbage-Out PrincipleProblems with Data QualityBiases Created by GeographyConclusions9. Assembling Occurrence DataGeneral ConsiderationsObtaining and Improving Occurrence DataCompatibility and Study DesignConclusions10. Assembling Environmental DataRelevance to Species' DistributionsGeneral ConsiderationsModifiable Areal Unit ProblemSpecific Data ResourcesConclusions11. Study Areas and BAMDefining the Area MSampling ConsiderationsBAM ConfigurationsDetails of M and A for Model TransfersConclusionsPart IV: Developing Models12. Calibrating Niche ModelsIntroduction to Niche ModelsNuts and BoltsCalibrating the "Best" ModelTransferring and ExtrapolatingCharacterizing Ecological NichesConclusions13. Processing Raw Outputs into Useful MapsChoosing Appropriate ThresholdsFrom Potential to Actual DistributionsProjecting and Transferring ModelsConclusions14. Evaluating Niche ModelsControversies and Inappropriate ApproachesBasic ConceptsThe Confusion Matrix and Its ImplicationsBinary Model EvaluationContinuous Model EvaluationModel Evaluation and Model PerformanceConclusions15. Developing Risk MapsInitial EstimatesRisk ModifiersType I versus Type II ErrorsOverlay, Testing, and SimulationConclusionsPart V: Examples of Applications16. Identifying Risk FactorsBlack-Box Disease EcologyVector EcologyHuman VariablesImprovements and Future StepsSpatial Interpolation and PredictionBlack-Box ExamplesComponent-Based ExamplesImprovements and Future Steps18. Identifying Species Involved in Transmission CyclesIdentifying Guilty SpeciesUnderstanding Transmission SystemsDetecting Movement VectorsComplete UnknownsImprovements and Future Steps19. Responses to Environmental ChangeEarly Mechanistic ModelsEmpirical Niche Model Projections of Climate ChangeMechanistic versus Empirical ModelImprovements and Future Steps20. ConclusionsLiterature CitedIndex

In this pioneering work... A. Townsend Peterson breaks new ground... Peterson's approach holds potentially enormous benefits for those charged with determining how disease spreads, and how to control that spread. -- Venkat Subramaniam Biz India Magazine His main thesis is repeated like a mantra throughout the text, and was well received by me--disease mapping must move beyond geography and better incorporate ecology and biogeography. Peterson defends this thesis over 20 (mostly very short) chapters primarily via a broad, conceptual overview focused on methodological considerations and caveats to ecological niche modeling (ENM), and through brief descriptions of numerous relevant case studies. Quarterly Review of Biology

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