Making Telecoms Work

Geoff Varrall joined RTT in 1985 as an executive director and shareholder to develop RTT's international business as a provider of technology and business services to the wireless industry.He co-developed RTT's original series of design and facilitation workshops including 'RF Technology', 'Data Over Radio', 'Introduction to Mobile Radio', and 'Private Mobile Radio Systems’ and developed 'The Oxford Programme', a five day strategic technology and market programme presented annually with the Shosteck Group. Over the past twenty years, several thousand senior level delegates have attended these programmes.As a Director of Cambridge Wireless, Geoff is involved in a number of wireless heritage initiatives that aim to capture and record past technology and engineering experience and has helped with fundraising at the Science Museum for the new Making of Modern Communications Gallery opening in 2014.

• Foreword xvii List of Acronyms and Abbreviations xixAcknowledgements xxiii1 Introduction 11.1 Differentiating Technology and Engineering Innovation 11.2 Differentiating Invention and Innovation 21.3 The Role of Standards, Regulation and Competition Policy 21.4 Mobile Broadband Auction Values – Spectral Costs and Liabilities and Impact on Operator Balance Sheets 31.5 TV and Broadcasting and Mobile Broadband Regulation 41.6 Technology Convergence as a Precursor of Market Convergence? 51.7 Mobile Broadband Traffic Growth Forecasts and the Related Impact on Industry Profitability 51.8 Radio versus Copper, Cable and Fibre – Comparative Economics 61.9 Standardised Description Frameworks – OSI Seven-Layer Model as a Market and Business Descriptor 71.10 Technology and Engineering Economics – Regional Shifts and Related Influence on the Design and Supply Chain, RF Component Suppliers and the Operator Community 81.11 Apple as an Example of Technology-Led Market Innovation 12Part I USER HARDWARE2 Physical Layer Connectivity 152.1 Differentiating Guided and Unguided Media 152.2 The Transfer of Bandwidth from Broadcasting to Mobile Broadband 152.3 The Cost of Propagation Loss and Impact of OFDM 172.4 Competition or Collaboration? 182.5 The Smith Chart as a Descriptor of Technology Economics, Vector Analysis and Moore’s Law 192.6 Innovation Domains, Enabling Technologies and their Impact on the Cost of Delivery 202.7 Cable Performance Benchmarks 332.8 Hybrid Fibre Coaxial Systems 342.9 The DVB-S Satellite Alternative 352.10 Terrestrial TV 352.11 Copper Access – ADSL and VDSL Evolution 362.12 The Copper Conundrum – the Disconnect between Competition Policy and Technical Reality 422.13 OFDM in Wireless – A Similar Story? 422.14 Chapter Summary 543 Interrelationship of the Physical Layer with Other Layers of the OSI Model 553.1 MAC Layer and Physical Layer Relationships 553.2 OFDM and the Transformative Power of Transforms 563.3 The Role of Binary Arithmetic in Achieving Sensitivity, Selectivity and Stability 613.4 Summary 693.5 Contention Algorithms 693.6 The WiFi PHY and MAC Relationship 733.7 LTE Scheduling Gain 833.8 Chapter Summary 884 Telecommunications Economies of Scale 914.1 Market Size and Projections 914.2 Market Dynamics 974.3 Impact of Band Allocation on Scale Economics 1034.4 The Impact of Increased RF Integration on Volume Thresholds 1134.5 The RF Functions in a Phone 1184.6 Summary 1235 Wireless User Hardware 1255.1 Military and Commercial Enabling Technologies 1255.2 Smart Phones 1295.3 Smart Phones and the User Experience 1415.4 Summary So Far 1425.5 RF Component Innovation 1465.6 Antenna Innovations 1535.7 Other Costs 1625.8 Summary 1656 Cable, Copper, Wireless and Fibre and theWorld of the Big TV 1676.1 Big TV 1676.2 3DTV 1696.3 Portable Entertainment Systems 1706.4 Summary of this Chapter and the First Five Chapters – Materials Innovation, Manufacturing Innovation, Market Innovation 171Part II USER SOFTWARE7 Device-Centric Software 1757.1 Battery Drain – The Memristor as One Solution 1757.2 Plane Switching, Displays and Visual Acuity 1767.3 Relationship of Display Technologies to Processor Architectures, Software Performance and Power Efficiency 1777.4 Audio Bandwidth Cost and Value 1817.5 Video Bandwidth Cost and Value 1827.6 Code Bandwidth and Application Bandwidth Value, Patent Value and Connectivity Value 1848 User-Centric Software 1858.1 Imaging and Social Networking 1858.2 The Image Processing Chain 1868.3 Image Processing Software – Processor and Memory Requirements 1918.4 Digital Camera Software 1948.5 Camera-Phone Network Hardware 1968.6 Camera-Phone Network Software 1968.7 Summary 1979 Content- and Entertainment-Centric Software 1999.1 iClouds and MyClouds 1999.2 Lessons from the Past 2009.3 Memory Options 2039.4 Gaming in the Cloud and Gaming and TV Integration 2059.5 Solid-State Storage 20610 Information-Centric Software 21110.1 Standard Phones, Smart Phones and Super Phones 21110.2 Radio Waves, Light Waves and the Mechanics of Information Transfer 21210.3 The Optical Pipe and Pixels 21410.4 Metadata Defined 21710.5 Mobile Metadata and Super-Phone Capabilities 21910.6 The Role of Audio, Visual and Social Signatures in Developing ‘Inference Value’ 22110.7 Revenues from Image and Audio and Memory and Knowledge Sharing – The Role of Mobile Metadata and Similarity Processing Algorithms 22110.8 Sharing Algorithms 22210.9 Disambiguating Social Mobile Metadata 22310.10 The Requirement for Standardised Metadata Descriptors 22310.11 Mobile Metadata and the Five Domains of User Value 22410.12 Mathematical (Algorithmic Value) as an Integral Part of the Mobile Metadata Proposition 22511 Transaction-Centric Software 22911.1 Financial Transactions 22911.2 The Role of SMS in Transactions, Political Influence and Public Safety 23011.3 The Mobile Phone as a Dominant Communications Medium? 23211.4 Commercial Issues – The End of the Cheque Book? 232Part III NETWORK HARDWARE12 Wireless Radio Access Network Hardware 23712.1 Historical Context 23712.2 From Difference Engine to Connection Engine 23812.3 IP Network Efficiency Constraints 24012.4 Telecoms – The Tobacco Industry of the Twentyfirst Century? 24212.5 Amortisation Time Scales 24212.6 Roads and Railways and the Power and Water Economy – The Justification of Long-Term Returns 243 12.6.1 Historical Precedents – Return on Infrastructure Investment Time Scales 24312.7 Telecommunications and Economic Theory 24412.8 The New Wireless Economy in a New Political Age? 25012.9 Connected Economies – A Definition 25112.10 Inferences and Implications 25412.11 The Newly Connected Economy 25513 Wireless Core Network Hardware 25713.1 The Need to Reduce End-to-End Delivery Cost 25713.2 Microwave-Link Economics 25813.3 The Backhaul Mix 25913.4 The HRAN and LRAN 26013.5 Summary – Backhaul Options Economic Comparisons 26313.6 Other Topics 26414 Cable Network and Fibre Network Technologies and Topologies 26714.1 Telegraph Poles as a Proxy for Regulatory and Competition Policy 26714.2 Under the Streets of London 26714.3 Above the Streets of London – The Telegraph 26914.4 Corporate Success and Failure – Case Studies – The Impact of Regulation and Competition Policy 26914.5 The Correlation of Success and Failure with R and D Spending 27114.6 Broadband Delivery Economics and Delivery Innovation 27315 Terrestrial Broadcast/Cellular Network Integration 27515.1 Broadcasting in Historical Context 27515.2 Digital Radio Mondiale 27715.3 COFDM in DRM 27715.4 Social and Political Impact of the Transistor Radio 27815.5 Political and Economic Value of Broadcasting 28015.6 DAB, DMB and DVB H 28115.7 HSPA as a Broadcast Receiver 28315.8 Impact of Global Spectral Policy and Related Implications for Receiver Design and Signal Flux Levels 28415.9 White-Space Devices 28715.10 Transmission Efficiency 28915.11 Scale Economy Efficiency 28915.12 Signalling Efficiency 28915.13 Power Efficiency Loss as a Result of a Need for Wide Dynamic Range 29015.14 Uneconomic Network Density as a Function of Transceiver TX and RX Inefficiency 29015.15 Cognitive Radios Already Exist – Why Not Extend Them into White-Space Spectrum? 29015.16 An Implied Need to Rethink the White-Space Space 29115.17 White-Space White House 29115.18 LTE TV 29215.19 Summary 29515.20 TV or not TV – That is the Question – What is the Answer? 29515.21 And Finally the Issue of Potential Spectral Litigation 29715.22 Technology Economics 30015.23 Engineering Economics 30015.24 Market Economics 30015.25 Business Economics 30115.26 Political Economics 30115.27 Remedies 30116 Satellite Networks 30316.1 Potential Convergence 30316.2 Traditional Specialist User Expectations 30316.3 Impact of Cellular on Specialist User Expectations 30416.4 DMR 446 30516.5 TETRA and TETRA TEDS 30516.6 TETRAPOL 30616.7 WiDEN 30616.8 APCO 25 30616.9 Why the Performance Gap Between Cellular and Two-Way Radio will Continue to Increase Over Time 30716.10 What This Means for Two-Way Radio Network Operators 30716.11 Lack of Frequency Harmonisation as a Compounding Factor 30716.12 The LTE 700 MHz Public-Safety-Band Plan 30916.13 The US 800-MHz Public-Safety-Band Plan 31016.14 Policy Issues and Technology Economics 31316.15 Satellites for Emergency-Service Provision 31516.16 Satellites and Cellular Networks 31616.17 The Impact of Changing Technology and a Changed and Changing Economic and Regulatory Climate – Common Interest Opportunities 31716.18 And Finally – Satellite and Terrestrial Hybrid Networks 31816.19 Satellite Spectrum and Orbit Options 32116.20 Terrestrial Broadcast and Satellite Coexistence in L Band 32416.21 Terrestrial DAB Satellite DAB and DVB H 32416.22 World Space Satellite Broadcast L Band GSO Plus Proposed ATC 32416.23 Inmarsat – L Band GSO Two-Way Mobile Communications 32416.24 Thuraya 2 L Band GSO Plus Triband GSM and GPS 32516.25 ACeS L Band GSO Plus Triband GSM and GPS 32516.26 Mobile Satellite Ventures L Band GSO Plus ATC 32516.27 Global Positioning MEOS at L Band GPS, Galileo and Glonass 32516.28 Terrestrial Broadcast and Satellite Coexistence in S Band 32616.29 XM and Sirius in the US – S Band GEO Plus S Band ATC 32616.30 Mobaho in Japan and S DMB in South Korea – S Band GSO Plus ATC 32616.31 Terrestar S Band in the US – GSO with ATC 32716.32 ICO S Band GSO with ATC 32716.33 ICO S Band MEO at S Band with ATC 32716.34 Eutelsat and SES ASTRA GSO – ‘Free’ S Band Payloads 32816.35 Intelsat C Band Ku Band and Ka Band GSO 32816.36 Implications for Terrestrial Broadcasters 32816.37 Implications for Terrestrial Cellular Service Providers 32916.38 The Impact of Satellite Terrestrial ATC Hybrids on Cellular Spectral and Corporate Value 32916.39 L Band, S Band, C Band, K Band and V Band Hybrids 32916.40 Summary 330Part IV NETWORK SOFTWARE17 Network Software – The User Experience 33517.1 Definition of a Real-Time Network 33517.2 Switching or Routing 33617.3 IP Switching as an Option 33617.4 Significance of the IPv6 Transition 33617.5 Router Hardware/Software Partitioning 33617.6 The Impact of Increasing Policy Complexity 33717.7 So What Do Whorls Have to Do with Telecom Networks? 33817.8 Packet Arrival Rates 34217.9 Multilayer Classification 34218 Network Software – Energy Management and Control 34718.1 Will the Pot Call the Kettle Back? 34718.2 Corporate M2M 34818.3 Specialist M2M 34818.4 Consumer M2M 34918.5 Device Discovery and Device Coupling in Consumer M2M Applications and the Role of Near-Field Communication 34918.6 Bandwidth Considerations 35018.7 Femtocells as an M2M Hub? 35118.8 Summary 35219 Network Software – Microdevices and Microdevice Networks – The Software of the Very Small 35319.1 Microdevices – How Small is Small? 35419.2 Contactless Smart Cards at 13.56 MHz – A Technology, Engineering and Business Model? 35719.3 Contactless Smart Cards and Memory Spots – Unidirectional and Bidirectional Value 35819.4 Contactless Smart Cards, RF ID and Memory Spots 35819.5 Contactless Smart Cards, RF ID, Memory Spot and Mote (Smart Dust) Applications 35919.6 The Cellular Phone as a Bridge Between Multiple Devices and Other Network-Based Information 35919.7 Multiple RF Options 36019.8 Multiple Protocol Stacks 36019.9 Adoption Time Scales – Bar Codes as an Example 36019.10 Summary 36120 Server Software 36320.1 The Wisdom of the Cloud? 36420.2 A Profitable Cloud? 36420.3 A Rural Cloud? 36520.4 A Locally Economically Relevant Cloud? 36520.5 A Locally Socially Relevant Cloud? 36520.6 A Locally Politically Relevant Cloud – The China Cloud? 36620.7 The Cultural Cloud? 36721 Future Trends, Forecasting, the Age of Adaptation and More Transformative Transforms 36921.1 Future Forecasts 36921.2 The Contribution of Charles Darwin to the Theory of Network Evolution 37021.3 Famous Mostly Bearded Botanists and Their Role in Network Design – The Dynamics of Adaptation 37121.4 Adaptation, Scaling and Context 37121.5 Examples of Adaptation in Existing Semiconductor Solutions 37221.6 Examples of Adaptation in Present Mobile Broadband Systems 37221.7 Examples of Adaptation in Future Semiconductor Solutions 37321.8 Examples of Adaptation in Future Cellular Networks 37321.9 Specialisation 37521.10 The Role of Standards Making 37621.11 The Need for a Common Language 37621.12 A Definition of Descriptive Domains 37721.13 Testing the Model on Specific Applications 37921.14 Domain Value 38021.15 Quantifying Domain-Specific Economic and Emotional Value 38121.16 Differentiating Communications and Connectivity Value 38221.17 Defining Next-Generation Networks 38321.18 Defining an Ultralow-Cost Network 38421.19 Standards Policy, Spectral Policy and RF Economies of Scale 38521.20 The Impact of IPR on RF Component and Subsystem Costs 38621.21 The Cost of ‘Design Dissipation’ 38621.22 The Hidden Costs of Content – Storage Cost 38721.23 The Hidden Costs of User-Generated Content – Sorting Cost 38721.24 The Hidden Cost of Content – Trigger Moments 38721.25 The Hidden Cost of Content – Delivery Cost 38821.26 The Particular Costs of Delivering Broadcast Content Over Cellular Networks 38821.27 Summary – Cost and Value Transforms 388Index 391

“In this excellent book, Geoff Varrall uses his 25 years of experience within the mobile phone and telecommunications industries to analyse the components, devices, and materials that will have a significant impact on the marketplace.”  (Radio-Electronics.com, 16 April 2012)