Earthquake Prediction with Radio Techniques

Masashi Hayakawa University of Electro-Communications, Japan

• Preface ix 1 Earthquakes and EQ Prediction 11.1 Fundamentals of Earthquakes 11.1.1 Naturally Occurring EQs 31.1.2 EQ Fault Types 31.1.3 EQs Away from Plate Boundaries (Interplate EQs) 41.1.4 Shallow-Focus and Deep-Focus EQs 51.1.5 Frequency of EQ Occurrence 51.2 Conventional EQ Prediction by Seismic Measurements 51.2.1 Historical Background 51.2.2 Measurement of EQs and Crustal Movement 81.2.3 Long-Term, Medium-Term, and Short-Term EQ Prediction 91.3 Nonconventional (Nonseismic) EQ Prediction with Radio Technique 101.3.1 Historical Introduction of EQ Prediction 101.3.2 Nonseismic (Mainly Electromagnetic) Short-Term Precursors 12References 162 Radio Communication and Radio Noise 192.1 Communication Systems 192.1.1 General Scheme of Communication and Communication Systems 192.1.2 General Scheme of Communication Systems 192.1.3 General Scheme of Communication Media 212.2 Propagating Media of Radio Communications 222.2.1 Radio Propagation Types 222.2.2 Radio Signal Transmission and Propagation Characteristics 232.3 Major Radio Propagation Types (General Characteristics) 242.3.1 Ground Wave Propagation 242.3.2 Tropospheric Propagation 292.3.3 Ionospheric Propagation/Earth–Space Propagation 332.4 Radio Noise 36References 393 DC/ULF Technique 413.1 Historical Introduction 413.2 DC Geoelectric Signals 433.2.1 VAN Observational Method 433.2.2 Selectivity Law: How to Estimate the EQ Epicenter 463.2.3 VAN Relationships: How to Estimate the EQ Magnitude 473.2.4 Variety of SES: How to Estimate the Time of a Coming EQ 473.2.5 Results of EQ Prediction Using VAN Method 483.2.6 Discussion 483.3 ULF Electromagnetic Emissions 523.3.1 Introduction 523.3.2 Three Major ULF Events 523.3.3 Correlation between ULF Emissions and EQs 543.3.4 Existing ULF Networks in Japan 553.3.5 Analysis Methods of ULF Magnetic Field Variations 583.3.6 Characteristics of Seismogenic ULF Emissions and Current Activities 633.4 Generation Mechanism of DC/ULF Emissions 643.4.1 Microfracturing Mechanism 643.4.2 Induction Mechanism 663.4.3 Electrokinetic Mechanism 683.5 ULF Magnetic Field Depression 743.5.1 ULF Magnetic Field Depression as a New Phenomenon 743.5.2 An Example for the 2011 Japan EQ 753.5.3 Generation Mechanism of ULF Magnetic Field Depression 79References 814 ELF Techniques 874.1 Characteristics of Extremely Low-Frequency Waves 874.2 Theoretical Aspects of Propagation on VLF/ELF 874.2.1 Rays and Modes 874.2.2 Fresnel Reflection 914.3 Propagation of ELF Waves 934.4 Seismogenic ELF Electromagnetic Emissions 954.4.1 ELF Sensors and Selection of Frequency 954.4.2 Some Examples 994.4.3 Statistical Results 1004.4.4 Generation Mechanism of Seismogenic ELF Emissions 1014.5 Anomalies in SRs 1014.5.1 An Event Study: 1999 Taiwan Chi-chi EQ 1024.5.2 Statistical Results 1204.6 ULF/ELF Electromagnetic Radiation before the March 11, 2011, Japanese EQ 1254.6.1 ULF/ELF Precursor 126References 1355 VLF/LF Techniques 1395.1 Characteristics of ELF/VLF/LF Waves 1395.2 Whistlers 1405.2.1 Sources and Propagation 1405.2.2 Refractive Index 1415.2.3 Dispersion 1415.2.4 Allied Phenomena 1415.3 Theoretical Aspects of Propagation on VLF/ELF 1425.3.1 Effect of the Earth’s Magnetic Field 1425.3.2 Effects of Earth–Ionosphere Curvature 1445.3.3 The Use of VLF/LF Subionospheric Propagation as a New Methodology 1445.4 Anomalies of Subionospheric VLF/LF Propagation and Lower Ionospheric Perturbations in Possible Association with EQs 1455.4.1 History of VLF/LF Subionospheric Method 1455.4.2 Japanese VLF/LF Network 1475.4.3 Short-Distance Propagation and VLF/LF Propagation Anomalies 1505.4.4 Long-Distance Propagation and Lower Ionospheric Perturbations 1715.5 Seismogenic VLF/LF Emissions 1755.6 Anomalous Propagation of Whistlers 1795.6.1 Whistler Data Used in This Paper 1795.6.2 Anomalous Whistlers and Seismic Activity 1805.7 Generation Mechanism of Seismo-ionospheric Perturbations 189References 1926 MF Techniques 1996.1 Characteristics of MF Waves 1996.2 Anomalies of MF Broadcasting Signals and Ionospheric and Atmospheric Perturbations 1996.2.1 LF Radio Precursors 1996.2.2 Propagation Characteristics of LF Anomalies and Discussion 2026.2.3 Conclusion of LF Radio Waves 206References 2077 HF/VHF/SHF Techniques 2097.1 Uses of HF/VHF/SHF Waves 2097.1.1 Instrument and Analysis 2107.1.2 Ionosonde foF2 2107.1.3 GPS TEC 2117.1.4 Doppler Shift 2117.2 HF/VHF Bottomside Sounding and Ionospheric Perturbations 2127.2.1 Seismo-ionospheric F-Region Precursor 2127.3 Over-the-Horizon VHF Propagation and Atmospheric Perturbation 2257.3.1 Characteristics of Over-the-Horizon VHF Propagation in Possible Association with EQs 2257.3.2 Interferometric VHF Direction Finding 2367.4 Line-of-Sight VHF Propagation 2457.4.1 Wideband Measurement System 2457.4.2 Statistical Analysis and Discrimination of Anomalous Data 2477.4.3 Observation Results 2487.4.4 Conclusion 250References 2508 Satellite Observations 2558.1 Historical Introduction of Satellite Observations 2558.2 Plasma Anomalies and Plasma Turbulence (Early Results) 2568.2.1 Ion and Electron Density and Temperature 2568.2.2 Energetic Particles 2568.2.3 Infrared and Thermal Measurements 2588.3 Radio Emissions in Different Frequency Ranges (Early Results) 2598.3.1 Plasma Waves 2598.4 The DEMETER Satellite and Observational Results 2648.4.1 Scientific Payload 2658.4.2 Operations and Data Processing 2668.4.3 Scientific Results from DEMETER 267References 2809 Summary and Conclusion 2879.1 Summary of the Use of Radio Techniques in EQ Prediction 2879.2 Future Directions 288References 290Index 291