Diverging Destinies

James M. Raymo, Professor of Sociology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, jraymo@ssc.wisc.edu, 1180 Observatory Dr., Madison, WI 53706 USAMiho Iwasawa, Senior Researcher, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, iwasawa-miho@ipss.go.jp, Hibiya Kokusai Building 6th Floor,2-2-3 Uchisaiwaicho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0011 Japan

• 1: Introduction: “diverging destinies” and “pattern of disadvantage” as part of the second demographic transition.- 1.1: General patterns of change.- 1.2: Posited implications.- 1.3: Posited explanations.- 1.4: Variation across time and space.- 2: Summary of previous research on Japan.- 2.1: Theoretical value of focus on Japan.- 2.2: Summary of previous work on educational differences in family behavior in Japan.- 2.3: Synthesis of existing research.- 3: Update and extension of past research.- 3.1: Description of data sources.- 3.2: Description of methods.- 3.3: Union formation and dissolution.- 3.4: Childbearing.- 3.5: Mother’s employment.- 3.6: Attitudes.- 4: Summary and synthesis.