Demography

Samuel H. Preston is Frederick J. Warren Professor of Demography and Dean of the School of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania. He has written monographs on mortality patterns, world urbanization, the history of child health, and other subjects. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and the American Philosophical Society. Patrick Heuveline is Assistant Professor of Sociology and Research Associate of the Population Research Center at the University of Chicago. His recent work applies demographic analysis to such diverse topics as the Cambodian genocide and the HIV/AIDS pandemic.Michel Guillot is a Post-Doctoral Fellow at the Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, where his research focuses on formal demography and mortality in developing countries. He has a Ph.D. in Demography and Sociology from the University of Pennsylvania.

• List of Boxes viiiList of Tables xList of Figures xiiPreface xivAcknowledgments xv1 Basic Concepts and Measures 11.1 Meaning of “Population” 11.2 The Balancing Equation of Population Change 21.3 The Structure of Demographic Rates 31.4 Period Rates and Person-years 51.5 Principal Period Rates in Demography 71.6 Growth Rates in Demography 81.7 Estimating Period Person-years 151.8 The Concept of a Cohort 161.9 Probabilities of Occurrence of Events 182 Age-specific Rates and Probabilities 212.1 Period Age-specific Rates 212.2 Age-standardization 242.3 Decomposition of Differences between Rates or Proportions 282.4 The Lexis Diagram 312.5 Age-specific Probabilities 322.6 Probabilities of Death Based on Mortality Experience of a Single Calendar Year 353 The Life Table and Single Decrement Processes 383.1 Period Life Tables 423.2 Strategies for Choosing a Set of N a X Values And/or for Making The N M X → N Q X Conversion 443.3 The Very Young Ages 473.4 The Open-ended Age Interval 483.5 Review of Steps for Period Life Table Construction 483.6 Interpreting the Life Table 513.7 The Life Table Conceived as a Stationary Population 533.8 Mortality as a Continuous Process 593.9 Life Table Construction Revisited 613.10 Decomposing a Difference in Life Expectancies 643.11 Adaptation of the Life Table for Studying Other Single Decrement Processes 65Appendix 3.1 Life Table Relationships in Continuous Notation 694 Multiple Decrement Processes 714.1 Multiple Decrement Tables for a Real Cohort 714.2 Multiple Decrement Life Tables for Periods 734.3 Some Basic Mathematics of Multiple Decrement Processes 784.4 Associated Single Decrement Tables from Period Data 804.5 Cause-specific Decomposition of Differences in Life Expectancies 844.6 Associated Single Decrement Tables from Current Status Data 864.7 Stationary Populations with Multiple Sources of Decrement 895 Fertility and Reproduction 925.1 Period Fertility Rates 935.2 Decomposition of Period Fertility 995.3 Cohort Fertility 1015.4 Birth Interval Analysis 1065.5 Reproduction Measures 1136 Population Projection 1176.1 Projections and Forecasts 1176.2 Population Projection Methodology 1186.3 The Cohort Component Method 1196.4 Projections in Matrix Notation 1296.5 Population Forecasts 1316.6 The USBOC Projection of the US Population 1336.7 Alternative Forecasting Methods 1346.8 Accuracy and Uncertainty 1356.9 Other Uses of Population Projections 1367 The Stable Population Model 1387.1 A Simplified Example of a Stable Population 1387.2 Lotka’s Demonstration of Conditions Producing a Stable Population 1417.3 The Equations Characterizing a Stable Population 1447.4 The “Stable Equivalent” Population 1477.5 The Relation between the Intrinsic Growth Rate and the Net Reproduction Rate 1507.6 The Effects of Changes in Fertility and Mortality on Age Structure, Growth Rates, Birth Rates, and Death Rates 1557.7 The Momentum of Population Growth 1617.8 Uses of the Stable Population Model in Demographic Estimation 1678 Demographic Relations in Nonstable Populations 1718.1 An Illustration 1718.2 Relations in Continuous Age and Time 1728.3 Extensions of the Basic Relations 1768.4 Deconstructing the Age-specific Growth Rate 1808.5 Age Structural Dynamics 1828.6 Uses of Variable-r Methods in Demographic Estimation 1849 Modeling Age Patterns of Vital Events 1919.1 Model Age Patterns of Mortality 1929.2 Age Patterns of Nuptiality 2019.3 Age Patterns of Fertility 2049.4 Model Age Patterns of Migration 20810 Methods for Evaluating Data Quality 21110.1 Statistical Methods for Identifying Coverage Errors 21210.2 Statistical Methods for Evaluating Content Errors 21410.3 Demographic Methods of Assessing Data Quality 21511 Indirect Estimation Methods 22411.1 Estimation of Child Mortality from Information on Child Survivorship: The Brass Method 22411.2 Estimation of Adult Mortality Using Information on Orphanhood 23311.3 The Sisterhood Method for Estimating Maternal Mortality 24111.4 Estimating Mortality and Fertility from Maternity Histories 24311.5 Indirect Estimation Methods Using Age Distributions at Two Censuses 24612 Increment–Decrement Life Tables (Alberto Palloni, University of Wisconsin) 25612.1 Introduction 25612.2 Increment–Decrement Life Tables 25712.3 Estimation of Increment–Decrement Life Tables 25912.4 Formalization and Generalization of Relations 26612.5 The Simplest Case: A Two-state System 27012.6 Alternative Solutions: The Case of Constant Rates 27112.7 Programs for the Calculation of Increment–Decrement Life Tables 271References 273Index 285

"This will be a bible for demographers in coming years and decades." Professor James Vaupel, Founding Director, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany "It is really a graduate-level textbook of formal demography. As such, it is sorely needed. I will certainly use it as my basic textbook when it comes out. The authors have done an excellent job of keeping this interesting and informative." Professor Kenneth Hill, Director of the Johns Hopkins Population Center "It is not a text on population geography. That was not the creative intention of the authors: they provide a carefully crafted toolkit for advanced exercises on demographic analysis. It succeeds as an undergraduate level text and is reasonable priced" Geographical Association "For the mathematically competent, it is terrific. The coverage of the book is indicated by its 12 chapters: basic concept and measures, age-specific rates and probabilities, the life table and single decrement processes, multiple decrement processes, fertility and reproduction, population projections, the stable population model, demographic relationships in non-stable populations, modelling age patterns of vital events, methods of evaluating data quality, indirect estimation methods, and increment-decrement life tables ( this chapter contributed by Alberto Palloni). As a text, the book could be used as a first course for those with particularly good mathematical skills but it is probably better employed as a successor to a simpler methods course in which the fundamental ideas of demography have been made clear. The earlier course would filter out those students who would most benefit from a course based on this book. For the practitioner, this is an excellent reference book. It takes the fear out of a lot of mathematical material in demograohy through clear and explicit explanantion...this is a five star book. Fantastic, terrific, exciting. Its authors deserve very great praise for the service that they provided to the discipline. Its emergence has already led us here at the ANU to consider a restructuring of our teaching to incorporate a course based on this book." Journal of Population Research "This is a five-star book. Fantastic, terrific, exiting. Its authors deserve very great praise for the service that they have provided the discipline." Journal of Population Research